Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel! This is a trading thread where trading and market chatter occurs.
Per request - recommended reading on beginning to learn technical trading:
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/handbook-of-technical-analysis-a-comprehensive-guide-to-analytical-methods-trading-systems-and-technical-indicators_darrell-r-jobman/584061/?utm_term=1101002859890&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7cdc&pcrid=11558858262&utm_campaign=Bing+Shopping+%7c+Business+&+Investing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=bing#isbn=1557385971&idiq=1677270&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7Cdc&pcrid=11558858262
Per request I will start compiling terms used frequently, so newbies quickly acclimate
My #1 Favorite pattern - The Model T 50% retrace occurs on an entire market index or stock ONCE A CONFIRMED REVERSAL HAS BEEN ACHIEVED. Never assume a temporary pause in a stock or market is the bottom, and start thinking you're clear to confidently hold (or buy) only to get crushed. When I post Model T is in effect it means confirmation has been achieved. Those who chart Fibonacchi studies will speak to the 50% retracement, and that is generally the same line. However, those sometimes calculate an outside the actual band between start of the top and end of the bottom (or in reverse if a bull move is reversed).
Exsurge Domine posted a great chart showing the pattern recently completed on SPY. This occurred Friday and we used the $281 stretch level to enter Puts as a hedge. Those doubled in price within 90 minutes to recapture our capital and have a net free holding.
I tabulate an algorhythm across every large cap traded stock and break that into Fortune 500, 1000, QQQ, SPY and other subsets. Regardless of which one you choose the current retrace Model T, once confirmation is achieved, stands at 96.35%. Do you think you can trade more confidently knowing this? I sure hope so!
Additionally, the Model T occurs, at some level, intraday - every day. It also will freak you out how often it occurs on post-market flashes (on earnings beat, misses or big news). Just ask any of the regulars for confirmation.
More on Model T and Macro Market Patterns:
Here's what I am looking at macro level. Model T easy enough to draw. Its a sideways T, for those who haven't figured that out. Right now we have resistance around the $281 level on SPY. The move above that and then retreat right now is hard to read. Bull minded people read that as a technical breakout with a shake drop back below. If so we will rocket upward and take out days highs for a rally. Bears see it as a technical failure of punching through resistance and will buy Put's or short.
You can see the bottom of the bear flag area and the top of the bull flag become the next natural targets, depending on who wins the battle.
La Bamba posted a great video on the retrace. https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/56268656
Stretch Level - I haven't mentioned this on the forum but a few times. It's what I call the intraday attempts to break a key technical level. Think of technical numbers as being more rubbery than hard. A stock testing resistance (bears not wanting to allow further appreciation) or support (bulls not wanting to allow further decline) will stretch beyond the actual technical level these huge institutions have set up shop. The reasons are quite simple. A large buy order executes that catches the resistance ask between refreshes. Let me explain that as simply as I can. Many institutions will hide their intentions to be dumping shares at "X" price point.
Sophisticated traders have Level II systems that allow you to see the total number of shares hiding behind the current bid/ask mark. Insitutions will attempt to hide their mass by using a refresh approach. So they show 2000 shares at the ask but the moment that 2000th share executes their system refreshes another 2000 share sell. Some insitutions have technology that refreshes anywhere between when the 1st share executed to the 2000th (Example they set it at 1000 and when 1000 of the 2000 shares visible at the ask executes it adds 1000 to continuously show 2000). What happens, however, is let's say a 50k share buy comes in to execute at the asking price. You'll get quick jumps above resistance, before the refresh can occur, but if more than 50k shares was waiting to refresh by the selling institution the stock quickly falls back to that level. Sometimes institutions who are shorting a stock, versus just dumping shares, will set longer pauses between refreshes. What that does is give a false start to sucker in day-traders thinking a breakout finally occurred only to get trapped and most will quickly sell out actually helping the short seller achieve their goal. (How many of you knew all of this? How many of you have tried to day trade and lost over 90% of the time because of what I now have taught you?)
Enough for now. Will add more as we go.
-----------------------------------
Date 6-11-2021
From ibdm98
All, below is the link to last night's TexAgs Stock Markets Thread Blocking & Tackling Commmmmpoooooound, Commmmmmmmpleeeeeeex Fightin' Texas Aggie Zoom Call featuring FJ and 30K...
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/128G7hI9kqfcjKbKsAtP0jd_oc49tZ36y?usp=sharing
As stated previously, please do not share this outside this thread as we want to keep this within this community of Aggies.
Enjoy!
-----------------------------------
Per request - recommended reading on beginning to learn technical trading:
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/handbook-of-technical-analysis-a-comprehensive-guide-to-analytical-methods-trading-systems-and-technical-indicators_darrell-r-jobman/584061/?utm_term=1101002859890&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7cdc&pcrid=11558858262&utm_campaign=Bing+Shopping+%7c+Business+&+Investing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=bing#isbn=1557385971&idiq=1677270&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7Cdc&pcrid=11558858262
Per request I will start compiling terms used frequently, so newbies quickly acclimate
My #1 Favorite pattern - The Model T 50% retrace occurs on an entire market index or stock ONCE A CONFIRMED REVERSAL HAS BEEN ACHIEVED. Never assume a temporary pause in a stock or market is the bottom, and start thinking you're clear to confidently hold (or buy) only to get crushed. When I post Model T is in effect it means confirmation has been achieved. Those who chart Fibonacchi studies will speak to the 50% retracement, and that is generally the same line. However, those sometimes calculate an outside the actual band between start of the top and end of the bottom (or in reverse if a bull move is reversed).
Exsurge Domine posted a great chart showing the pattern recently completed on SPY. This occurred Friday and we used the $281 stretch level to enter Puts as a hedge. Those doubled in price within 90 minutes to recapture our capital and have a net free holding.
I tabulate an algorhythm across every large cap traded stock and break that into Fortune 500, 1000, QQQ, SPY and other subsets. Regardless of which one you choose the current retrace Model T, once confirmation is achieved, stands at 96.35%. Do you think you can trade more confidently knowing this? I sure hope so!
Additionally, the Model T occurs, at some level, intraday - every day. It also will freak you out how often it occurs on post-market flashes (on earnings beat, misses or big news). Just ask any of the regulars for confirmation.
More on Model T and Macro Market Patterns:
Here's what I am looking at macro level. Model T easy enough to draw. Its a sideways T, for those who haven't figured that out. Right now we have resistance around the $281 level on SPY. The move above that and then retreat right now is hard to read. Bull minded people read that as a technical breakout with a shake drop back below. If so we will rocket upward and take out days highs for a rally. Bears see it as a technical failure of punching through resistance and will buy Put's or short.
You can see the bottom of the bear flag area and the top of the bull flag become the next natural targets, depending on who wins the battle.
La Bamba posted a great video on the retrace. https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/56268656
Stretch Level - I haven't mentioned this on the forum but a few times. It's what I call the intraday attempts to break a key technical level. Think of technical numbers as being more rubbery than hard. A stock testing resistance (bears not wanting to allow further appreciation) or support (bulls not wanting to allow further decline) will stretch beyond the actual technical level these huge institutions have set up shop. The reasons are quite simple. A large buy order executes that catches the resistance ask between refreshes. Let me explain that as simply as I can. Many institutions will hide their intentions to be dumping shares at "X" price point.
Sophisticated traders have Level II systems that allow you to see the total number of shares hiding behind the current bid/ask mark. Insitutions will attempt to hide their mass by using a refresh approach. So they show 2000 shares at the ask but the moment that 2000th share executes their system refreshes another 2000 share sell. Some insitutions have technology that refreshes anywhere between when the 1st share executed to the 2000th (Example they set it at 1000 and when 1000 of the 2000 shares visible at the ask executes it adds 1000 to continuously show 2000). What happens, however, is let's say a 50k share buy comes in to execute at the asking price. You'll get quick jumps above resistance, before the refresh can occur, but if more than 50k shares was waiting to refresh by the selling institution the stock quickly falls back to that level. Sometimes institutions who are shorting a stock, versus just dumping shares, will set longer pauses between refreshes. What that does is give a false start to sucker in day-traders thinking a breakout finally occurred only to get trapped and most will quickly sell out actually helping the short seller achieve their goal. (How many of you knew all of this? How many of you have tried to day trade and lost over 90% of the time because of what I now have taught you?)
Enough for now. Will add more as we go.
-----------------------------------
Date 6-11-2021
From ibdm98
All, below is the link to last night's TexAgs Stock Markets Thread Blocking & Tackling Commmmmpoooooound, Commmmmmmmpleeeeeeex Fightin' Texas Aggie Zoom Call featuring FJ and 30K...
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/128G7hI9kqfcjKbKsAtP0jd_oc49tZ36y?usp=sharing
As stated previously, please do not share this outside this thread as we want to keep this within this community of Aggies.
Enjoy!
-----------------------------------