Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel! This is a trading thread where trading and market chatter occurs.

Per request - recommended reading on beginning to learn technical trading:

https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/handbook-of-technical-analysis-a-comprehensive-guide-to-analytical-methods-trading-systems-and-technical-indicators_darrell-r-jobman/584061/?utm_term=1101002859890&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7cdc&pcrid=11558858262&utm_campaign=Bing+Shopping+%7c+Business+&+Investing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=bing#isbn=1557385971&idiq=1677270&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7Cdc&pcrid=11558858262



Per request I will start compiling terms used frequently, so newbies quickly acclimate

My #1 Favorite pattern - The Model T 50% retrace occurs on an entire market index or stock ONCE A CONFIRMED REVERSAL HAS BEEN ACHIEVED. Never assume a temporary pause in a stock or market is the bottom, and start thinking you're clear to confidently hold (or buy) only to get crushed. When I post Model T is in effect it means confirmation has been achieved. Those who chart Fibonacchi studies will speak to the 50% retracement, and that is generally the same line. However, those sometimes calculate an outside the actual band between start of the top and end of the bottom (or in reverse if a bull move is reversed).

Exsurge Domine posted a great chart showing the pattern recently completed on SPY. This occurred Friday and we used the $281 stretch level to enter Puts as a hedge. Those doubled in price within 90 minutes to recapture our capital and have a net free holding.

I tabulate an algorhythm across every large cap traded stock and break that into Fortune 500, 1000, QQQ, SPY and other subsets. Regardless of which one you choose the current retrace Model T, once confirmation is achieved, stands at 96.35%. Do you think you can trade more confidently knowing this? I sure hope so!

Additionally, the Model T occurs, at some level, intraday - every day. It also will freak you out how often it occurs on post-market flashes (on earnings beat, misses or big news). Just ask any of the regulars for confirmation.


More on Model T and Macro Market Patterns:
Here's what I am looking at macro level. Model T easy enough to draw. Its a sideways T, for those who haven't figured that out. Right now we have resistance around the $281 level on SPY. The move above that and then retreat right now is hard to read. Bull minded people read that as a technical breakout with a shake drop back below. If so we will rocket upward and take out days highs for a rally. Bears see it as a technical failure of punching through resistance and will buy Put's or short.

You can see the bottom of the bear flag area and the top of the bull flag become the next natural targets, depending on who wins the battle.



La Bamba posted a great video on the retrace. https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/56268656

Stretch Level - I haven't mentioned this on the forum but a few times. It's what I call the intraday attempts to break a key technical level. Think of technical numbers as being more rubbery than hard. A stock testing resistance (bears not wanting to allow further appreciation) or support (bulls not wanting to allow further decline) will stretch beyond the actual technical level these huge institutions have set up shop. The reasons are quite simple. A large buy order executes that catches the resistance ask between refreshes. Let me explain that as simply as I can. Many institutions will hide their intentions to be dumping shares at "X" price point.

Sophisticated traders have Level II systems that allow you to see the total number of shares hiding behind the current bid/ask mark. Insitutions will attempt to hide their mass by using a refresh approach. So they show 2000 shares at the ask but the moment that 2000th share executes their system refreshes another 2000 share sell. Some insitutions have technology that refreshes anywhere between when the 1st share executed to the 2000th (Example they set it at 1000 and when 1000 of the 2000 shares visible at the ask executes it adds 1000 to continuously show 2000). What happens, however, is let's say a 50k share buy comes in to execute at the asking price. You'll get quick jumps above resistance, before the refresh can occur, but if more than 50k shares was waiting to refresh by the selling institution the stock quickly falls back to that level. Sometimes institutions who are shorting a stock, versus just dumping shares, will set longer pauses between refreshes. What that does is give a false start to sucker in day-traders thinking a breakout finally occurred only to get trapped and most will quickly sell out actually helping the short seller achieve their goal. (How many of you knew all of this? How many of you have tried to day trade and lost over 90% of the time because of what I now have taught you?)

Enough for now. Will add more as we go.



-----------------------------------
Date 6-11-2021

From ibdm98

All, below is the link to last night's TexAgs Stock Markets Thread Blocking & Tackling Commmmmpoooooound, Commmmmmmmpleeeeeeex Fightin' Texas Aggie Zoom Call featuring FJ and 30K...

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/128G7hI9kqfcjKbKsAtP0jd_oc49tZ36y?usp=sharing

As stated previously, please do not share this outside this thread as we want to keep this within this community of Aggies.

Enjoy!
-----------------------------------

That cartoon is a little squirrel-ly

Stop speculating and gambling with your money. No one can predict the market, quit trying.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Stop speculating and gambling with your money. No one can predict the market, quit trying.

---

"Predict" what about the market?

---

oldarmy1- "Usually signals a major directional move is coming".

Your statement is nothing more than a "prediction" about the future.

• Market timing: The chartists that try and "predict" price movements and trends to help determine when to get in and out of the market.
• Stock Picking: Using technical analysis to try and "predict" what the next hot stock or asset class will be.
• Track Record Investing: Using past performance of stocks or money managers who "predicted" the last bubble in hopes they can outperform the market again. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

I'll repeat my statement. Stop speculating and gambling with your money. No one can "predict" the market, quit trying.

Run along to some other thread now. If you don't like what they're talking about then don't participate.

I suppose I could say that most wealth managers, aren't. Ironically that is a true statement.

I'm a macro trader not a day trader. I place 90% of my trade/investments 5-10 days a year. In the rare bear market periods I trade/invest 3-5 times. Makes no difference to me if you categorize that as predicting, or whatever. I do just fine.

You are obviously free to post your wealth management strategies. As for me, while waiting for the next rare macro trading opportunity I post basics on beginning to understand how markets work. You want people to sit in your vehicle (wealth managment) taking them for a ride and I've learned how to get under the hood and watch the spark plugs, drive shaft, cylinders and gasoline that make it run.

Read through some posts back in August ( a week before the initial market sell off) I warned my longtime Websider friends to exit the market. That was a macro driven signal given. In fact, I welcome you to go post over there asking a simple question "Did oldarmy1 PREDICT the market sell off was coming back in August?" When you do that go ahead and ask "Did he also predict the 2008 bear market at the end of 2007, by warning you to exit the market and even sale your homes, if in a positive equity position. Did he tell you to get lean and mean because this one was going to be bad?". While you're at it you might as well ask "Does he make those "predictions" all the time and it was just a case of a broken clock being right twice a day?"

The last one of those 3-5 trade events I mentioned occurred last Thursday. I was out of the country but texted a protege, Aggiemetal on Websider, that the markets were reversing 30 minutes before they did. I did later add a post the same. Can I predict how high that reversal will go? No, but I don't need to. Read the other thread below and I said exactly that. Knowing when to sell and how to use all the other instruments at your disposal to maximize returns is equally as critical.

That's why I asked what you meant by "predicting what about the market". You mean tomorrow? I can give you an educated opinion - might be right - might be wrong, although it will be right more than wrong. Next week? Same. But when the next macro move is coming I'll post it openly for you to see in real time. If you take daily observations and erroneously lump them in as being predictions that's not my problem. I've also made that clear in other threads. Context.

Just because you can't, and few take the time to truly learn how, doesn't mean it's impossible.

You can't predict the market.

Success in trading is just random best fits of strategies to time periods.

What works in one decade doesn't work in the next. I believe the odds of someone executing a winning trading strategy for multiple decades to be the same as winning the lottery. People win the lottery, but no one attributes winning the lottery to skill. People win in trading by pure random coincidence too, but think they are skilled.

You attribute your success to skill and failures to randomness. - Nassim Taleb

I won't go so far as to say it's impossible, but I will say it is impossible to determine if it was skill or random coincidence. Who is the best coin flipper?

It's not about predicting the market. When it starts moving, you just want to go along for the ride.

quote:

---

Most people who don't follow the market don't get it. Traders aren't trying to predict the market as no one can do that. Experience teaches one how to deal with different types of markets. Investing and trading is about probability. You look for high probability setups and ride them when you are right and cut losses quickly when you are wrong. Most are unable to do this because people don't like to admit they are wrong but it is essential in trading.

---

It appears many feel that trading is nothing more than throwing a dart onto a list of stocks and hoping they get it right.

Your response is accurate for many successful traders. However, it's more about ones willingness and capacity to become educated, experienced and willing to work in understanding all aspects of economies, economics, technology, human nature, political policies, on and on and on.

The ones who would say its impossible in the face of factual proof indicates to me they do not recognize the intense hard work it requires. A coin flip? The lottery? Gambling? My word!

You replied to the poster who included a revealing statement in which he says that what worked in one decade won't work in the next. No kidding, Sherlock! If you think professional traders are simply looking for something that "works" then it demonstrates the lack of realization on how markets work.

I wonder how many in here have actually held a paper share of stock in their hands? Yeah, things change. But we aren't trees. We can move, grow, learn. How many have spent time on the NYSE trading floor? Do you know how the next wave of Artificial Intelligence Neural Networks work, or how that technology assimilates multisourced data and "learns"? Do you look at a P/E and stock brief when choosing to invest in a single stock? Or do you listen to the quarterly earnings broadcast, speak with senior executives, their suppliers, financers and competition? Yup, it's a lot of work but I don't go to Vegas when I invest!

I enjoy reading y'alls posts. Don't let the naysayers get to you. I remember when this board started in late 2008 there was a guy who posted his daytrades and everyone was making money off of them, but the naysayers drove the guy off this board.

My advice is don't even reply to those guys. It just derails a good thread. Keep on posting your knowledge and trades and let us enjoy them.

Thanks!

"Why don't folks see that stockbrokers can't predict the future? After all, people scoff at astrologers and tarot card readers, but if some guy in a suit says he is a market analyst, people can't wait to hear his insider advice for what to do during a stock run or slump. Investment adviser Mark Matson calls these so-called experts what they are: bullies."

From the book description...

Um, I don't think this is what he is looking for.

And FWIW, my whole trade was detailed in this thread in black and white for you to read.

I missed the -215 prediction (yesterday only as today it did hit that level today) The chart was accurate even if the calendar was off by a day.

I didn't flip a coin and say "down". I identified what I thought was a reversal pattern and diagrammed it for everyone. I posted when the pattern was confirmed and then you can see the result for yourself.

Look for yourself. It's all in this thread and it's not me claiming this after the fact. I posted real time as the chart was filling in.

But, I'm sure that was just luck.