SN and CHK doing good today... any particular reason?

what say you said:

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SN and CHK doing good today... any particular reason?

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Crude oil is up almost a dollar. $WRD just popped too.

$LUV (Southwest Airlines) would also reckon to be a good buy

IrishTxAggie said:

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Really liking that TWTR buy yesterday.

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Feels good, don't it?

what say you said:

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SN and CHK doing good today... any particular reason?

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Oil is up $1.22

Let it ride or take the profit? I remember you posting these are long term holds for you OA? Can you please define what you mean by "long term"? TIA

Anyone have thoughts on MU upcoming earnings?

what say you said:

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Let it ride or take the profit? I remember you posting these are long term holds for you OA? Can you please define what you mean by "long term"? TIA

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DOUBLES from their recent lows....

For those keeping score on the DOW wedge, it was broken by 400 points, and if you went short on that seemingly convincing break, you are now under water. You can see much more clearly what is occurring within the volume profile. Price is balancing into POC after touching VAL. This balancing can often be seen easily in TA structures like a wedge, but you simply can't trade them with any conviction.

claym711 said:

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For those keeping score on the DOW wedge, it was broken by 400 points, and if you went short on that seemingly convincing break, you are now under water. You can see much more clearly what is occurring within the volume profile. Price is balancing into POC after touching VAL. This balancing can often be seen easily in TA structures like a wedge, but you simply can't trade them with any conviction.

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Hold that thought. Rome wasn't built in a day. But a solid chart pattern signal plays out above 90% of the time. And while I poste about having shorted some shares off the initial highs and secondary wave bounce I specifically said my trade as the wedge was coming to completion was a Put/Call spread. Let's check how thats going today.

Sorry for the laughing emoji. I meant to give the one-eye "what you talkin about Willis" emoji.

Dang, oldarmy with the laugh/cry...!!!

tailgatetimer10 said:

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Dang, oldarmy with the laugh/cry...!!!

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Truly - it was intended to be this....

Could still play out of course, and I hope it does. Just pointing out how one can get tricked and stopped on TA structures. Gap down this AM. My algo has been mostly short since volatility hit last month

claym711 said:

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Could still play out of course, and I hope it does. Just pointing out how one can get tricked and stopped on TA structures. Gap down this AM. My algo has been mostly short since volatility hit last month

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Did you ever post that? I would actually appreciate this type of discovery. If we use hundreds of data points in determining our strategies then I value them all. Each can be observed, weighted, tested and a historical % in correctness gets assigned. When trading in a AI program trading world it becomes the great equalizer.

I'm going to have to chart this at days end to be more straight-forward. I invite all to pop on end of day charts with current status.

I know, was just making light of it. This thread has been full of support and help.. along with constructive conversation.

oldarmy1 said:

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claym711 said:

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Could still play out of course, and I hope it does. Just pointing out how one can get tricked and stopped on TA structures. Gap down this AM. My algo has been mostly short since volatility hit last month

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Did you ever post that? I would actually appreciate this type of discovery. If we use hundreds of data points in determining our strategies then I value them all. Each can be observed, weighted, tested and a historical % in correctness gets assigned. When trading in a AI program trading world it becomes the great equalizer.

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oldarmy1, I'm fully automated as well.
I'm still long, but it will "get outta Dodge" when the big one hits the fan.

SlackerAg said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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claym711 said:

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Could still play out of course, and I hope it does. Just pointing out how one can get tricked and stopped on TA structures. Gap down this AM. My algo has been mostly short since volatility hit last month

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Did you ever post that? I would actually appreciate this type of discovery. If we use hundreds of data points in determining our strategies then I value them all. Each can be observed, weighted, tested and a historical % in correctness gets assigned. When trading in a AI program trading world it becomes the great equalizer.

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oldarmy1, I'm fully automated as well.
I'm still long, but it will "get outta Dodge" when the big one hits the fan.

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You are long?

Yes. It's not even close. The 3 big bubbles I'm keeping an eye on: ETFs, pensions & China real estate.

SlackerAg said:

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Yes. It's not even close. The 3 big bubbles I'm keeping an eye on: ETFs, pensions & China real estate.

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Thanks. Those are 3 huge lynch pins no doubt. Short term impact points of Tariff's, interest rates and Government shutdown are short term drivers. Markets holding serve on that short term support and churning is bounce centric. Everyone knows they'll pass a budget and the last 3 times that happened the markets moved higher.

That's why I'm trading spreads and thin on trading for now. But to be clear we are talking trading not buy and hold. Those I might have covered calls in play but I don't turn the stocks like I am speaking on trading.

Whew lad.

I didn't add to my long term positions today with the thought there will probably be follow through with markets closing on their lows.

Would the technical geniuses amongst you give me/us some Fibonacci numbers or other technicals that, if hit, I/we should do some buying?

Make that wedge market signal 93.16% accurate on my internal records.

I'm still new to this but do we expect a new lower wedge to form?

pacecar02 said:

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I'm still new to this but do we expect a new lower wedge to form?

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No. We're at major support right now. Break that and it's not a wedge it's a waterfall.

support being 23850ish?

Yes, running an Algo. Only trading intraday right now, with signals generated on around 25% of days and only at open. This week we shorted Monday morning and this morning.

Markets erased overnight -175 DOW mark and now up +57. We have a big red bar from yesterdays selloff that took us within the retest lower channel, so buyers beware on anything happening today. Any upward move within yesterdays huge range signals very little. Volume will be key because, despite yesterdays big move, you can pull up a lot of individual stock charts and they don't show massive volume - one would expect to see when looking for major support. The DOW didn't come close to the previous major bottom volume above 700B shares traded (see chart).

What does it all mean? It means, unless you positioned shorts on the resistance tops, trading thin and using options remains the correct way to go for now. With huge swing moves either direction Options premiums rock. Granted being positioned in them before the initial blast always pays best. A $100 area stock positioned with a Put/Call spread $5 either side of the money crushed it yesterday with many giving $7-10 moves. Now the premiums at those same marks have elevated premiums making positioning more expensive, requiring larger moves to pay big.

I wouldn't be buying this market with a ten foot poll based on non-volume, being at retest and the general tensions in multiple fundamental areas, i.e government spending, tariffs, economic uncertainty and last but not least - election year that is beginning to look like a change back to split powers.

I drew Defcon 1 bar scenario of we have a repeat of the last leg selloff (in red), and if a reprieve throw away day (in green). A 50% retracement of the losses yesterday would be possible if volume comes, if bulls are willing to fight to make the major support hold. Day traders use volume like the gospel on days after yesterday, and at major support. Triple witching Friday last week had major volume but could not push higher at all. That was just another piece observed into leaning towards the bearish side on trades.

If we lose major support there is a ton of room to the downside. I'd say ON TREND about 2300-2500 points. After an 8k point historic bull run thats not out of line. The easy money was made on buying support and selling/shorting resistance. Yesterday was the big pay day for those and Put/Call spreads. Unless we see a break of major support the trading is back to looking for the next big trade opportunity.

p.s. Day traders are going to be shorting the heck outta this +53 DOW because markets almost certainly go red in the first minutes of trading. If they are wrong they will help a bounce by covering.

oldarmy1 said:

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p.s. Day traders are going to be shorting the heck outta this +53 DOW because markets almost certainly go red in the first minutes of trading. If they are wrong they will help a bounce by covering.

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Yep

SWN back at resistance trying to breakout.

pacecar02 said:

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support being 23850ish?

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YESSIR......like right this very second.