Old army, is there a good website or book for learning the basics of technical analysis that you would recommend?

leoj said:

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Old army, is there a good website or book for learning the basics of technical analysis that you would recommend?

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https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/handbook-of-technical-analysis-a-comprehensive-guide-to-analytical-methods-trading-systems-and-technical-indicators_darrell-r-jobman/584061/?utm_term=1101002859890&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7cdc&pcrid=11558858262&utm_campaign=Bing+Shopping+%7c+Business+&+Investing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=bing#isbn=1557385971&idiq=1677270&mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7Cdc&pcrid=11558858262

Markets broke through previous 3 day short term resistance and returned right to the mid-channel line. Will this time be different? I say yes. Why? We have the macro higher lows which gives us continued support rebounds. Another key on the day to day action is that on a Friday volume was the lowest of the week. Yet we rose over 440 points. What is that telling us? It says that once that small resistance mark I noted during the trading day was broken I knew we were off to the races. But the lack of volume shows we weren't approaching a resistance mark during the close. It also tells us that there was plenty of buy side action taking out limit orders to the upside.

All of this means we likely head firmly above the mid-channel and retest that big initial gap down creating the current upper resistance. One thing that should continue to be watched is the capitulation that has occured over this entire year. If you pull a chart as far back as you want there has never been this wild of a period in terms of % range moves in the markets. Technicals take the lead over fundamentals in such times - whereas its usually fundamentals that I place on top.

Thanks oldarmy, going to order it shortly. Also same question for options information? I have a very basic book, a few others bookmarked to purchase as well. Wondering if one stands out.

leoj said:

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Thanks oldarmy, going to order it shortly. Also same question for options information? I have a very basic book, a few others bookmarked to purchase as well. Wondering if one stands out.

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Here's another I like for technical trading. One thing he "gets" that I see too many "experts" miss is the volume key.

https://jet.com/product/The-Art-and-Science-of-Trading/6a592637cfa0423c94bcb50f3e2c9ef5

For Options I suggest starting here:

https://www.amazon.com/Options-Trading-Complete-Investing-Making-ebook/dp/B078VBKLZ9/ref=sr_1_cc_4?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1520693976&sr=1-4-catcorr&keywords=stocks+for+options+trading

Thanks, I really appreciate it. Time to start digging in

oldarmy1 said:

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GE held its volume day low and has a bounce. While there is nothing definitive on trend reversal $16 Options out to April 6th worth a look if we have reached its low. $100 for 1000 shares leveraged.

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Ok investors. Let's throw out a gnarly full longer-term trend chart on GE. Those April $16 options spiked heavily Friday with GE popping now close to $15. We still have nothing definitive on GE in terms of trend reversal so GE would be consider "bottom fishing" and speculative, but not without some merit behind accumulating a long-term position. Except for the black verbiage which is connected with the volume yellow circled spike I tried to use the same color to match the arrows or lines explanation. People who say buy and hold forever would have at least been wise to purchase a Put option on GE when that Major support level broke. I got my Dad's holdings out at the previous support level breaking down at $28. I had already sold 2 covered calls on the sideways pattern, so he ended up with a net $33.51 on all shares which was a few cents above the peak price.

Note that we have had two huge volume spikes. The first all the way back in 2015 - at the end of the year. Not much movement on the shares which is a tale tale sign of churn rotation out of the stock. The cruelty then begins. A sideways pattern forms for a year as big money shorts the shares slowly and deliberately. A year is nothing for a short seller. It was a 12 month set up with all support shares diving out at the next huge volume spike near the end of 2017. Always be aware of huge volume spikes at year end. While it would usually be a signal of a potential bottom reversal - it happening at the end of the year is huge institutional block trades. GE has a small bounce but then you see the gap down leading to the current 3rd wave lows.

Historically 3 waves on a trend is worth an entry long-term. Buying around $14 and then each $2 lower will be my approach. If this recent bottom becomes the major support bottom then GE will find its way back above $20 completing a reversal confirmation. Since even falling knife stocks tend to trend down (GE since June last year trending downward) I see it taking 4-6 months for GE to be above $20. I have accumulated a sizeable position. Due to the first chart referenced in this post I added call options on the cheap and if GE continues its bounce then I'll be taking those off the table and lower my net holding price.

I came here to post/ask what thoughts were on GE current levels. Oldarmy, you beat me too it! I also tend to agree it looks like we may have finally found a bottom support level around $14. Additionally, CEO has been cutting costs and 're-structuring' the business and it seems like they are finally ready to start a turnaround.

I plan to take a position in GE as well early next week. I hope I'm right.

CPDAggie10 said:

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I came here to post/ask what thoughts were on GE current levels. Oldarmy, you beat me too it! I also tend to agree it looks like we may have finally found a bottom support level around $14. Additionally, CEO has been cutting costs and 're-structuring' the business and it seems like they are finally ready to start a turnaround.

I plan to take a position in GE as well early next week. I hope I'm right.

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I re-entered my dads portfolio into a 50% of targeted position as we tested $14. My own buys didn't come until $14.18-$14.27, with my average holding price coming in at $14.24. If it loses the $14 I don't see it falling much below $12 at the worst and would buy the remaining 50%. However, in the event this was the bottom and we cross $20 I'd buy the remaining 50% at that point. I always love to be part of the solution to trend reversals....upward volume.

oldarmy1, are there fundamental reasons you are putting on a long position in GE? And are there any fundamental reasons you are seeing to suggest a turnaround in the stock price might begin this year? I always found it such hard work to try bottom fishing a floundering company.

I was going to ask what happens if there are further divestitures of segments of the company and/or any additional undisclosed liabilities and charges.

pfo said:

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oldarmy1, are there fundamental reasons you are putting on a long position in GE? And are there any fundamental reasons you are seeing to suggest a turnaround in the stock price might begin this year? I always found it such hard work to try bottom fishing a floundering company.

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Yes, they are going to divest some units that will give them the cash position for focusing on their core deliverables. I expect the first one of those in the summer. If the stock appreciates into that period then the markets forward looking sentiments will be confirming it.

If GE hits $17 area then I will likely buy a $14 Put out to July on the cheap creating a no-risk position on it. Potentially reversing stocks under $20 I use $3 gain as benchmark for protecting the flank out past that companies next earnings at the least - just in case.

DOW Futures up 84 S&P 7.5
Keep on trucking upper band baby!

Read about your strategy on SWN, CHK and SN. I'm with you for the most part but the big risk (obviously) for those is oil prices dipping back below $60 for an extended period of time. Feels like they are barely keeping their head above water right now. I got burnt buying Sanchez at $6 a year or two ago. May try to reenter here at $3 and recoup some of those losses but it's really a bet on oil prices

H&S works < 50%. It is a losing strategy.

claym711 said:

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H&S works < 50%. It is a losing strategy.

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H&S?

Head and Shoulders

SWN trying to breakout on rebound from last week highs.

Below is an intraday 1 minute chart

Last weeks top is still resistance mark for rebound today. So easy to spot as you can see. Also day traders dream chart reverse H&S breakout made for easy $. Good for them. Now they are sellling up here at resistance and part of the problem. You have shorting going on due to traders seeing the clear resistance.

So SWN would need to churn here or it will go through yet another cycle. That said this action should give good confidence long term that SWN has turned the corner on macro market outlook.

4.57 seems to be the resistance

AggiePeeps06 said:

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4.57 seems to be the resistance

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All afternoon. But we had what I call a "rip bar" on the minute that spiked it up to that resistance point. 5million shares on that minutes bar. It's a tactic huge money markets make to find the resistance point during the day. I am looking at the minute block trades there and see 3 block trades of 1.25m shares each. That tells us its likely the same buyer.

Note its peak on that minute is right where the afternoon kept bumping. Also note that perfect "V" day trading patterns in the morning. Then you have a couple of nice ones into the afternoon, ended by a cup and handle "V". This is a stock that has interest and wants to move higher.

Oldarmy, What are your thoughts on PATK? It looks like to me that it is beginning Wave 3 of the Elliot Wave Cycle.

snowmnag970 said:

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Oldarmy, What are your thoughts on PATK? It looks like to me that it is beginning Wave 3 of the Elliot Wave Cycle.

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I would agree with that analysis. And if you overlay that stock chart on top of the DOW it will be almost identical to market movements. This is a great sign to say there is no trouble seen in the stock. However, it will rise or fall with the broader markets.

Want a great trading stock right now? It's GILD. $8-10 wild swings as bulls/bears duke it out come off its lows back to June last year. Buy $76 Calls out 2 weeks when approaching $72 or buy $76 Puts out at least 10 days when above $84.

I see maybe one more wave in the sideways channel before anything breaks either direction. Maybe 2. Another way to trade it is a option spread but I'm not explaining all the ways to approach that trade.

JEFF!!!!

Wow, trump straight up blocks broadcoms attempted takeover of Qualcomm.

That board will have to show some real progress now, they were going to lose the vote for their seats.

That's a fascinating chart. Very interesting insight on the large volume buyer. Looks like if we have an up day in the broader market tomorrow, SWN could break through that resistance.

Inflation numbers pretty tame. Futures popped

GE taking back it's gains today it appears

Just purchased more CSCO calls at $46 expiring on April 13th.

In the age of computer program trading the charts become almost exact. Sideways narrowing wedge. Note today we are below yesterdays highs but above yesterdays lows. I would be inclined to trade the direction it breaks.

The S&P DID hit a 3 day trend high and has held its low above yesterdays low. Mixed markets with a slight tilt to move higher technically. I am as thin as a Girl Scout thin mint cookie right now on trade positions. Most on bullish side but a break on trend low and I'd close out profits ASAP with likely 1 loser out of 16 current trades.

tailgatetimer10 said:

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GE taking back it's gains today it appears

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Had a bear downgrade on GE suggesting it still has some wash out to occur. They put a low target of $11. This is where the 50% entry at $14 area with 50% at $12 really wins long-term.

If S&P 2750 is to be viewed as a support level, it's been bouncing at the level for session lows. VIX didn't spike to positive until 2750 was reached. Interesting.

oldarmy1 got me into the technicals ,so, since I am an old, I hired a technician to do this for me so I can play and be on this thread and maybe make better decisions.

TWTR is a stock oldarmy1 was working awhile back but I haven't seen much chatter on it lately here. Cramer pumped it last night along with SQ which he really pumped.

So I asked my technical guy about them and he says "on a point and figure chart, TWTR is a double. Something you don't see very often". I don't even know what a point and figure chart is but doubles get me excited! He also like SQ technically. So I bought both. Both are very strong in today's down market, I assume, because Cramer pumped them. But both have really been showing relative strength this year.

Any thoughts?

pfo said:

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oldarmy1 got me into the technicals ,so, since I am an old, I hired a technician to do this for me so I can play and be on this thread and maybe make better decisions.

TWTR is a stock oldarmy1 was working awhile back but I haven't seen much chatter on it lately here. Cramer pumped it last night along with SQ which he really pumped.

So I asked my technical guy about them and he says "on a point and figure chart, TWTR is a double. Something you don't see very often". I don't even know what a point and figure chart is but doubles get me excited! He also like SQ technically. So I bought both. Both are very strong in today's down market, I assume, because Cramer pumped them. But both have really been showing relative strength this year.

Any thoughts?

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TWTR is Trump's platform which means it's not going away any time soon.

SQ is better because I've seen their products permeate the market of smaller vendors and those without Square seem to have a less admirable system. What I am trying to say is, I've had easier experiences paying at vendors who use square then those who don't use Square.