What an opportunity. I'm buying XOM at the open tomorrow. Near 52 week low and get to buy in during Q1 of trump tax cut mania. Wow.

I will also buy some JPM at the bell as well. Looking at 125 bp in rate increases over the next 18 months most likely. That's a >25% increase over the current prime rate. That isn't priced in at a sub 20 PE.

What an opportunity for long investors.

So the ge darvas box broke today?

Looking into the daily chart there still looked to be a couple of solid buying candles with no matching selling

ranchag04 said:

---

Pipeline carriers have taken a serious beating....ete,etp just had a blow your socks off earnings report and are trading near or at 52 week lows....kmi too.

---

The pipeline ETF's compete with the 10 year for yield. So rising rates are killers for this group. I sold the last of mine 9 months ago for that very reason after holding them for 10 plus years.

I'm with you 100% on JPM. For blue chip investors, buying the best managed blue chip bank in a rising interest rate environment and a strong economy is a winner! It's my 3rd largest position.

pacecar02 said:

---

So the ge darvas box broke today?

Looking into the daily chart there still looked to be a couple of solid buying candles with no matching selling

---

For that technical to confirm you need a new low.

I see it now, I was looking at a daily chart(interval) and the low was hiding from me


edit: looks like Chesapeake came around for you too

oldarmy1 said:

---

tailgatetimer10 said:

---

I sold off a good 20% this morning and felt good to preserve some profits. However dropping late a second day in a row sucks, especially when I traded green up until the drop... Just as I did yesterday

---

Should be out of most trades to the long side. Be a seller above the mid-channel mark and sell into up days.

---

So you could see in real time the wheels fall off when we broke below that 2nd short term support. We flashed down over 200 more points on the DOW before coming back to -368. I am not a buyer on the dip.

pacecar02 said:

---

I see it now, I was looking at a daily chart(interval) and the low was hiding from me


edit: looks like Chesapeake came around for you too

---

Yes - I took on some CHK and some SN. NOT A TRADE. Long hold. I haven't bought anything as a trade on today's dip. If it recovers fine - but when the secondary short term support fails like today my rule is to sit it out.

Do you think we are back in the lower mid channel support? I find it interesting that we bounced off 2700 S&P in early afternoon. 2700 was a key bounce number over the past two weeks.

If we jump back above 2700 tomorrow morning I will treat that number as important.

Futures bright red. Once we moved above the mid-channel the traders were taking profits as posted. The markets failing to reach anywhere close to the upper band is not a good sign for the long holders.

Combine that with the quick drop back below pthe mid channel and now you see why I said a) be taking profits b) sideways markets likely versus being able to break to new highs and c) not taking the last 2 days as buying opportunities.

With some fundamentals now pointing negative, in combination with the technical break back down, I'll now add to the caution expressed by raising the likelihood of a further breakdown on any retest.

Traders will still be buyers within a narrow window of retest looking for major support double bottom. I will only buy options out 30 days. No shares. That keeps my risk to premium should markets fail.

Otherwise the bounce would give those options a quick premium lift. In a sideways markets options take the rare lead role for traders. Selling covered calls on long term holds (when pushing above mid channel), put options (I own JPM and bought March 110 Puts) and then major support calls.

Sophisticated traders use put/call spreads counting on sideways action to bank premiums.

Do you think we are going to break bottom support levels today, and start trading at a lower range boundary?

aunuwyn08 said:

---

Do you think we are going to break bottom support levels today, and start trading at a lower range boundary?

---

Personally? Yes. And as everyone should know that doesn't necessarily mean today. And it certainly doesn't mean that, as a trader, I am not seeking trade entries for a bounce. We could have another bounce off major support and continue sideways. If that does happen then the obvious next thing we look for is will we have a lower high than the recent bounce? That's how I would be trading any buys entered around 24k DOW and 2550 S&P.

And should we break major support we have a falling knife on momentum. I personally love failling knifes because I'm positioned in Puts or shorts.

Here is a prime example of how I approach a trade. JPM above the mid-channel I was selling into the push higher. At the same time I sold my last trading shares I purchased the March 110 Put at $0.66 cents. With the drop down in share price those Puts are currently at $1.53. I took 40% of those Puts off the table based on the chart below and purchased an equal number of shares against the remaining Puts.

The chart is an intraday chart and if anyone can't spot the volume spike combined with the intraday support line then leave this thread immediately and never consider trading again! ">

In a perfect world I wanted the share price to reach as close to $110 as possible creating a zero risk trade entry. But that volume candle became a "no-brainer" decision to exit Put %, banking the profits, and entering the shares long looking for that upper resistance to break out and give a move back into mid-channel.

Does any of this make sense?

p.s. As I was typing (and not watching - dang you people!) JPM exploded through that upper day trader resistance line for a quick $1+ move. And if you pull up a minute chart you can see a technical principle playing out short term where broken resistance becomes support. It rocketed up to $112.06 and then quickly dropped back but bounced right off that intraday previous resistance mark.

Pure day-traders would buy thousands of shares at that previous resistance broken and quickly dump on the bounce for their profits.

Updated look at JPM day trade chart. Man the money being made trading those supports and resistance is a day traders dream. When a chart gives you clear intraday support/resistance lines for entry and exit (and therefore stop loss marks) its tempting to join in.

Having a rough week, missed the sale timing earlier this week, and now missing in interday rally. Oh well..

Continuing with JPM intraday learning chart. GAPS GAPS GAPS. Markets love to fill wonderful gaps on trend before doing whatever they do next. I sold off 50% of the JPM shares bought at the $111.30 mark earlier today when we filled the gap at $113. So I do day trade but it was against Put options so not a pure stand alone day trade. At any rate I have long found it amazing to see computer trading and market makers allow this easiest of easy patterns to continue intraday.

I increased my position in MCD today, I originally bought it when the first market drop hit in February and the shares sunk to $163.

I bought more today upon the 5% dump MCD took, personally I looked at the RSI and figured it was a no brainer to help cost average down (I'm now at a $154 cost basis vs the $163 originally).

However, I would recommend against jumping into MCD right now given the price target being slashed due to the $1-$2-$3 dollar menu getting slow start. I am still long on this stock given their steady dividend history and the fact that I think they'd do well during a recession (people will still go out to eat, but no longer eating steak, but burgers instead). But then again, I am 27 and am ok with letting my money ride.

Anyone else got any insights on MCD?

Critical point on SPX. Break that nasty intraday head and shoulders and we are going to jump back to green fast.

pacecar02 said:

---

I see it now, I was looking at a daily chart(interval) and the low was hiding from me


edit: looks like Chesapeake came around for you too

---

CHK, SN, SWN all the accumulation of shares during their struggles are looking good. SWN especially on strong earnings.

So is JPM a good long term buy right now?

Markets found its new upper resistance level this week and we are on watch to see if Fridays recovery creates a support line. I've narrowed the channel and therefore mid-channel, which means traders have less room to maneuver than the easy initial entry off the major support bottom back above the mid-channel.

Each successive bounce and drop becomes more difficult to read/trade. That's why I move to very conservative trade profile EXCEPT for certain beaten down cyclical sectors such as Energy. I was very active accumulating CHK, SN and SWN at 52 week lows based on volume and earnings season. Each of them are in the green on my spreadsheet from accumulation and there always seems to be one that busts a better move than the others. SWN jumped over 20% Friday and allowed me to sell covered calls to either reduce holding costs if it consolidates back down or juices my sell gain by an additional 8% for 28% gain in less than a week. I'll take that all day every day.

Back to the markets.
What is their to like? Well we've held above the recent major support. We had a rapid trend back upwards (showing value buyers are still engaged) and anticipated sideways consolidation is now in week
4. Volume came in strong when bears attempted to break down support levels and volumes otherwise were not erratic pointing to some stabilizing of the markets.

What is their to not like? The quick retreat from the bounce is never positive. The current short term trend (see arrows pointing to day high and day low) is lower highs and lower lows. Even Fridays late rally could be a classic "feel good" headfake because we closed below the previous days highs and worked most of the day at the week trend lows. Those inside the trend reversal days are never technical triggers of an "all clear" to bottom buy.

For AggieGolf86 question about JPM being a buy here I am not confident enough in the macro markets just now to make that declaration. The JPM chart is a mirror of the macro markets, so all of the analysis posted above can echo my thoughts on JPM.

Futures red. DOW -117

S&P -14

That could be erased quickly but it's certainly no follow through on Fridays move.

UPDATE
DOW -172 and S&P -17 coming to the opening bell. Lot of day traders will be buyung DOW and S&P Futures at overnight and now pre-market lows right now before the bell looking for a quick bounce attempt off Friday's action. Most will sell quickly

Day Traders taking their 100 point Move at DOW now -68 and 10 point S&P move now -7.5.

CSCO is holding above its gap up from last week and if markets turn green at any point will be a front runner upward. OPTIONS out to March 16th $45 strike would be the trade.

oldarmy1 said:

---

CSCO is holding above its gap up from last week and if markets turn green at any point will be a front runner upward. OPTIONS out to March 16th $45 strike would be the trade.

---

buying these options at $0.34 per share per contract? I assume you are looking to flip them before expiration?

oldarmy1 said:

---

CSCO is holding above its gap up from last week and if markets turn green at any point will be a front runner upward. OPTIONS out to March 16th $45 strike would be the trade.

---

In at $0.32.

Yessir! $.60 target

Ragoo said:

---

oldarmy1 said:

---

CSCO is holding above its gap up from last week and if markets turn green at any point will be a front runner upward. OPTIONS out to March 16th $45 strike would be the trade.

---

buying these options at $0.34 per share per contract? I assume you are looking to flip them before expiration?

---

They are around that range, and I do believe it would be wise to flip them before expiration. I'm just keeping an eye on them and if they somehow hit my desired % increase, I'll take them off the board.

GE held its volume day low and has a bounce. While there is nothing definitive on trend reversal $16 Options out to April 6th worth a look if we have reached its low. $100 for 1000 shares leveraged.

oldarmy1 said:

---

CSCO is holding above its gap up from last week and if markets turn green at any point will be a front runner upward. OPTIONS out to March 16th $45 strike would be the trade.

---

I bought CSCO a couple of weeks ago. It's relative strength has been too strong to ignore.

SQ broke out of a cup and handle technical and is flying.

CHK coming off of its post earnings bounce and pull back. Thank you markets for brining it to me last week!

oldarmy1 said:

---

CHK coming off of its post earnings bounce and pull back. Thank you markets for brining it to me last week!

---

Where to you see CHK going in the next few weeks?