Pros sell premium. I'd listen to Aggiemetal if you want to go that route.

I'm still learning ES well. Will hopefully have time later to start harvesting theta.

0708aggie said:

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army can you explain the breakout on GPRO?

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It traded above $17 three day resistance, ran above 10 day highs and then the market turned over and brought it back. Absolutely no volume came in to complete/confirm the move. In fact, it was the least volume all year! So we have no sellers, buyers or even traders today. Watch for it to break $17 again because it would likely recapture that breakout move.

claym711 said:

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Pros sell premium. I'd listen to Aggiemetal if you want to go that route.

I'm still learning ES well. Will hopefully have time later to start harvesting theta.

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thanks
that's my preferred vehicle, way cheaper than SPX, offers way more premium that SPY, lets you collect good premium even extremely far from the money even when vol is poor, if things go screwy overnight you can act then (vs. having to wait for the bell knowing you're gonna get hammered and there's nothing you can do before hand in the event of a black swan event)

i used to make AMZN my workhorse but it obviously isn't cheap and it's grown into a monster, which when it was huge moves can really zap previous profits. . .I'm always green on it but you gotta do it small or it'll bite ya' hard every now and then (sure much worse so now that's it an $800+ underlying---I haven't fiddled with it since it was in the 730's)

oldarmy1 said:

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0708aggie said:

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army can you explain the breakout on GPRO?

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It traded above $17 three day resistance, ran above 10 day highs and then the market turned over and brought it back. Absolutely no volume came in to complete/confirm the move. In fact, it was the least volume all year! So we have no sellers, buyers or even traders today. Watch for it to break $17 again because it would likely recapture that breakout move.

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Today's move on broader markets put us squarely back into the mid-channel. In other words, all your time decay strategies continue to look good.

TWTR above IPO price now with this new breakout.

Any particular strategy that you are employing on TWTR that you are willing to share as the buyout speculation continues to draw out?

You owe precisely nothing but doesn't hurt to ask .

To any TA's out there, would the following be good examples of a cup and handle pattern? I noticed them both over the weekend. I'm pretty new to this so I just wanted to make sure I'm moving in the right direction. (Also, I couldn't find the free draw tool to draw the cup, but I think y'all will be able to see them.)

ZNGA


This one starts in early August and takes about 6 weeks for the cup to form. I think today may be considered a break out, as well? There is above average volume, but not double.

WEN


This one starts in May and takes about 16-17 weeks for the cup to form. The handle portion on this one doesn't seem to have as steep a decline as ZNGA did.

Thanks for any feedback!

T&P for TWTR

PeekingDuck said:

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T&P for TWTR

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Happy October for covered calls! Long candle day came within range of all the buyout rumors target price, so you sell the $28's out to November netting you close to the high end of that $28-$30 posted target. Since buyout rumors are just that you take advantage of the target premiums, because they would be "juice" if a buyout happened and profits if it doesn't.

And I went covered calls versus a straight sell because I don't see this as anything but another cycle on the stock.

I'll add that companies aren't too keen on seeing their strategies exposed for all to see. Inflating the shares and increasing perceived valuations doesn't make for a potential suitors negotiation. Therefore a public dismissal of rumors is standard fare; even if some "weenie" words are used such as "AAPLE says they are not LIKELY to make a bid" or GOOG releasing they have no PLANS to offer a buyout deal.

Ah, corporate espionage.

P.S. If I had known that all of the denails of buying interest were hittimg of course I would have either sold TWTr or bought a cheap $22-$23 Put for maximum gain potential. I nearly bought the Puts but went covered calls only.

As for next strategy it all depends on how far TWTR sells off. Overreactions work both ways so will watch how far it drops early and potentially trade some Friday calls on the cheap.

Parrish is busy counting his covered call premium cash! Well done Sir Joseph.

oldarmy1 said:

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Parrish is busy counting his covered call premium cash! Well done Sir Joseph.

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I was hoping it would get there today, wasn't sure.

Again, you're the brains. I just pulled the trigger.

TWTR $17 premarket. Buying back my $18 covered calls at the open.

TWTR has been a wild ride. Earnings are later this month....any likelihood we could see new lows if there's a miss on earnings?

The biggest risk to TWTR is a guide down which is highly likely IMO.

TriumphForks said:

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TWTR has been a wild ride. Earnings are later this month....any likelihood we could see new lows if there's a miss on earnings?

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Absolutely. If their data mining and marketing performance doesn't show real revenue quarter over quarter they most certainly will. It would be a big buying opportunity if that occurred because selling out to a company who would better understand how to leverage the channel would be the next logical move. All these companies saying they aren't interested in making a bid are looking for a better deal.

As for right now $16.50 area looks like a decent base. With today's drop we filled every gap up and left two gap downs. That gap down approaching $20 would be my target high going into earnings.

Thanks market for tanking TWTR allowing me to buy back my covered calls for next to nothing!

Seems Salesforce is still pursuing a deal.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Quote&symbol=Twtr

oldarmy1 said:

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AAPL pointing towards a breakout signal.

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Forgive my ignorance...breakout up or down?

HouAggie said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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AAPL pointing towards a breakout signal.

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Forgive my ignorance...breakout up or down?

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UP! Perfect cup and handle, for those who follow, with handle in pure bull territory.

By the way Joseph. SN has a mean head and shoulders bear pattern that needs to hold the right shoulder right at these lows or it's gonna lose that last large candle breakout from August 8th.

To see H&S pull up an August 9th to today and you see the head on Sept. 8-12 formed with clear left and right shoulders on either side.

So do we buy apple or the twitter?

brd79 said:

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So do we buy apple or the twitter?

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Coin flip?

Apple looks to really benefit from Samsung scrapping the Note7. Especially with the Holiday season coming up. If you are buying a smartphone for Christmas, your options are the IPhone and......what else exactly?

oldarmy1 said:

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By the way Joseph. SN has a mean head and shoulders bear pattern that needs to hold the right shoulder right at these lows or it's gonna lose that last large candle breakout from August 8th.

To see H&S pull up an August 9th to today and you see the head on Sept. 8-12 formed with clear left and right shoulders on either side.

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So I guess I'll ride out that covered call and not buy it back this time.

oldarmy1 said:

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Thanks market for tanking TWTR allowing me to buy back my covered calls for next to nothing!

Seems Salesforce is still pursuing a deal.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Quote&symbol=Twtr

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If you're trading based on that, you may as well go ahead and short CRM. That would be a terrible acquisition from a strategic perspective.

What's your opinion on covered calls for Wells Fargo with the recent issues? Should I short them or just get out? I had a decent gain when it got up to $50, but now it's about where I bought them. I bought a bunch of banks right after the Brexit panic.

oldarmy1 said:

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HouAggie said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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AAPL pointing towards a breakout signal.

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Forgive my ignorance...breakout up or down?

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UP! Perfect cup and handle, for those who follow, with handle in pure bull territory.

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Just bought AAPL bc of this!

Joseph Parrish said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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By the way Joseph. SN has a mean head and shoulders bear pattern that needs to hold the right shoulder right at these lows or it's gonna lose that last large candle breakout from August 8th.

To see H&S pull up an August 9th to today and you see the head on Sept. 8-12 formed with clear left and right shoulders on either side.

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So I guess I'll ride out that covered call and not buy it back this time.

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As long as it doesn't break down it could recover. How far out are your options and how much deterioration have they come down to?

oldarmy1 said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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By the way Joseph. SN has a mean head and shoulders bear pattern that needs to hold the right shoulder right at these lows or it's gonna lose that last large candle breakout from August 8th.

To see H&S pull up an August 9th to today and you see the head on Sept. 8-12 formed with clear left and right shoulders on either side.

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So I guess I'll ride out that covered call and not buy it back this time.

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As long as it doesn't break down it could recover. How far out are your options and how much deterioration have they come down to?

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It's Oct 21 '16 $8 Call executed at $9.13. SN closed at $7.71 today, so it's in the money.

I think the options chart says I could buy back the covered call at $0.30 per share.

Joseph Parrish said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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By the way Joseph. SN has a mean head and shoulders bear pattern that needs to hold the right shoulder right at these lows or it's gonna lose that last large candle breakout from August 8th.

To see H&S pull up an August 9th to today and you see the head on Sept. 8-12 formed with clear left and right shoulders on either side.

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So I guess I'll ride out that covered call and not buy it back this time.

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As long as it doesn't break down it could recover. How far out are your options and how much deterioration have they come down to?

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It's Oct 21 '16 $8 Call executed at $9.13. SN closed at $7.71 today, so it's in the money.

I think the options chart says I could buy back the covered call at $0.30 per share.

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Well if futures are anywhere close to current levels we will be looking at an 18k retest. You look golden on those.

Sir Joseph - I'd throw a bid for a dime on those 30 covered call options. You have a $1.19 premium and if you can lock in $1.09 and eliminate any bounce risk on those then its a good move!

Alternatively, since you explained that you really don't want to part with those (being part of your desired core holdings) you can also opt to BUY SN shares here at $7.37 knowing you have $1.19 call premium reducing those shares to a net $6.25 cost. If the stock bounces above $8 enough to get called out on those 3000 shares bought at $7.43 then you will have pocketed $1.19 premium PLUS made $0.64 cents per share on these 3000 shares purchased.

And if the gods truly smile on you and you get a bump but not enough to have the 3000 new purchased shares called out you can add 60 covered calls to your game plan next go round.

Ah, heavenly!

Understand that SN is getting some negative press and a downgrade right now. One article suggests SN needs $70 oil to be profitable. If markets stay static the shares have the potential to drop down to it's last pre-breakout level or $6.70 levels. This is why I suggested and LOVE the covered call strategy!!!