quote:That move above $9 was the largest volume spike so profit takers were all over it. But realize this is coming off it's bottom and clearly has reversed on volume yesterday. How much short squeeze could still be coming?
How much higher can ATW realistically go? Bought at $7.25 last Thursday and am thinking I should take my money and run before this comes back down?
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Last: 59 sec ago by EliteZags
Did you dump the rest of the NKE after the earnings miss or still holding until expiration?
quote:Thank god this is going up... haha; I have quite a few vested stocks I am just letting ride in ATW until I can get it back up to a decent total value... (it was issued to me from the company back when it was worth ALOT more as a retention bonus incentive)
How much higher can ATW realistically go? Bought at $7.25 last Thursday and am thinking I should take my money and run before this comes back down?
quote:Dumped when it made its post-earnings recovery attempt to $55. Guidance was key factor.
Did you dump the rest of the NKE after the earnings miss or still holding until expiration?
I've done the unthinkable. I shorted AMZN.
Still clearly range bound. S&P is mid-range and DOW below midrange. As long as the dam doesn't break these big down moments are trad-able buying opportunities. It also means short trades or Puts would be covered. Macro post is different in that yellow caution is still in effect meaning 401k monies should be protected.
Remember Janet Yellen is speaking today at 3pm central.
HNH breakout
Yellen needs to tarred, feathered and shot.
So I'm not one who usually gives my dad advice (usually the other way around)...should I be telling him to move his retirement to cash? How do I explain it other than "I heard from a guy on the internet who I trust cause he keeps getting stuff right". I really appreciate oldarmy but I could see how an outsider might be a bit hesitant.
Just start referring to OA as "Your guy" and just hope he doesn't wind up in the hospital/inaccessible.
quote:
Just start referring to OA as "Your guy" and just hope he doesn't wind up in the hospital/inaccessible.
I don't know, what? Eight thousand. It's a Hyundai. Get out of here..
One of my favorite episodes.
quote:If you are trading and followed above approach with longs when we tanked over 200 then you should be taking 50% profits or layering a money making hedge (covered call in the money) this morning at +130.
Still clearly range bound. S&P is mid-range and DOW below midrange. As long as the dam doesn't break these big down moments are trad-able buying opportunities. It also means short trades or Puts would be covered. Macro post is different in that yellow caution is still in effect meaning 401k monies should be protected.
Decent volume pushing us above midrange on markets. Can we go challenge the resistance early next week, after holding serve on support? Likely. Soros would probably save Deutchbank to help markets for Hilldog.
BTHOsc
Coach Boom Bash
BTHOsc
Coach Boom Bash
S&P closed within 3 points the last 3 months. Now thats what I call sideways action. Just like the TN vs Ags game this weekend, somthings gotta give. Of course the markets have been trading pretty much sideways since 2014 (pull up a 5 year monthly SPX chart and you'll see).
shadowtrader had a good video on that this weekend and detailed ways to play it with pros and cons . .. they are the only technical guys I'll listen to other than Randy of course. . . .that's extremely rare, breaking out one way or the other, tells us pretty much nothing on direction other than breaking out of balance ....this is one of the advantages of options strategies, is you can put odds in your favor in a range around it---I've no specific trade for it at the moment, just doing my thing (as painfully detailed aboveoldarmy1 said:
S&P closed within 3 points the last 3 months. Now thats what I call sideways action. Just like the TN vs Ags game this weekend, somthings gotta give. Of course the markets have been trading pretty much sideways since 2014 (pull up a 5 year monthly SPX chart and you'll see).
) but a ton of ways to skin a cat with derivatives
Does anyone have any trading books or course recommendations to further educate a novice? Any thoughts on Dr. Alexander Elder's book "Come Into My Trading Room"?
Dough.com has some fun and simple options trading videos.
amen, it also make visualizing options strategies and probabilities very easy for new traders, also as I've said tastytrade is a great educational resource and they are very accessible for questions and best of all it's free...I endorse them sincerely b/c they literally changed my life and have allowed me to do this full timeMaroon Stormtrooper said:
Dough.com has some fun and simple options trading videos.
you still need to familiarize yourself with the basic terms and concepts as maroon stormtrooper's endorsed video does very simply and clearly, you also can obtain options trading certification through those videos (pretty sure it has to be through TD ameritrade though as dough is exclusive just through them)
the tastytrade guys made dough and are basically housed in the same office, tastytrade aren't officially affiliated with TDA but they sold TDA the thinkorswim platform to TDA for about 600Million and a lot of their hires still run that arm of TDA (the former owner of TOS now tastytrade/dough, Tom Sosnoff has even helped me get my commissions down persoanlly by calling a guy he hired in that dept.) ....once you advance I advise using thinkorswim with dough but my first few years I learned, loved and traded through dough exclusively, no I use them both but a lot of that is b/c I do more futures options which won't be supported by dough until the end of the year or early next year
all that said if you do start a TDA acct. if you wouldn't mid citing me as a reference (hit me through inbox for real name if that happens) ...I'm not a w h o r e
shilling on the cheap, but again I wholeheartedly freely endorse things this awesome and life changing (tastytrade, dough and ThinkorSwim platform through TDAmeritrade do that)...you don't have to go that direction but beware of lower commissions other brokers may offer, that part may be great and all but their technology is usually pretty antiquated when you first view tastytrade be aware they intentionally bring a whimsical approach, and have their own hit and miss comedic fake commercial spots b/w segment breaks b/c they refuse to have outside influence their message..... some of you will get the style of humor some won't but it's way better (especially when you have it on all the time) that just a boring trading education lecture style all the time...they do a good job with it overall and the backtesting and studies from their research team are amazing
For people like oldarmy and Aggiemetal, how did you get to the point where you were able to leave a "normal" job and trade for a living? How are/were you confident enough in your abilities that the inevitable uncertainty that the future brings doesn't cause you to seek something with more stability? It seems like such a delicate balance to strike between maintaining enough capital to make money off trades but yet taking on enough risk to earn a large enough return to live off of. I would think that no professional trader is more than a few critical missteps away from it all being over. I know each of you (while different) have a defined strategy that you stick to - but I'd think there has to be a weakness somewhere in the strategy. Nothing is fool proof.
From the tasty trade videos I have seen, I feel like they gloss over the risks somewhat. They mention ITM/OTM probabilities at expiration, but they rarely mention that the probability it will touch a certain price is much higher...
Jeff would be the more interesting response to this because he more recently left his job as a teacher to trade full time. Like a lot of teachers, he was at his wits end and this became his way out. That desire created the motivation and determination to learn how to successfully trade.TriumphForks said:
For people like oldarmy and Aggiemetal, how did you get to the point where you were able to leave a "normal" job and trade for a living? How are/were you confident enough in your abilities that the inevitable uncertainty that the future brings doesn't cause you to seek something with more stability? It seems like such a delicate balance to strike between maintaining enough capital to make money off trades but yet taking on enough risk to earn a large enough return to live off of. I would think that no professional trader is more than a few critical missteps away from it all being over. I know each of you (while different) have a defined strategy that you stick to - but I'd think there has to be a weakness somewhere in the strategy. Nothing is fool proof.
Nothing is fool proof but knowing how to leverage and hedge risk absolutely makes losses limited, even in the worse case scenario. Capital preservation is not relegated to traders only. I watched 401k's get cut anywhere from 30-70%. If you were younger then that was a blip - if you were older then many are traveling to LA instead of Milan. That's a key component of trading and, quite frankly, investing.
I trade for the enjoyment of trading and have remained active in "normal", and "abnormal" businesses.
So GOOG is gonna lay out the cash for TWTR. I am going to guess somewhere in the neighborhood of $28-30. IPO price was $26, so premium value for core ownership might have been there, but when it's GOOG and Disney competing you can count on it.
One can successfully trade SPY or ES using nothing more than TICK extremes, TICK aggregate, volume, money flow, RSI extremes, VAH/VAL, VWAP, and understanding relevant info like AH high/low, prep close, open, recent highs/lows, higher highs and lower lows or the inverse. Add some multi-session volume profile knowledge, EW counts, and VIX oscillation study. There's a formula there to kill the market with tight stop losses. Takes some devoted study.
The easiest trade in the market is shorting UVXY. Start small and add when UVXY/VIX pops. You will realize a 99% return over time. Of course it's capped there, but it's the best savings account that exists.
The easiest trade in the market is shorting UVXY. Start small and add when UVXY/VIX pops. You will realize a 99% return over time. Of course it's capped there, but it's the best savings account that exists.
just saw this I'll hit it tommorow
Hey Joseph - Here is a chart using monthly bars for seeing longer term trends. You can see the cup and handle formed, which is bullish. High break point is $9.81 to see a move out of this lengthy handle consolidation period of now SEVEN months. THAT's why selling covered calls has been such a good strategy. The only improvement/adjustment to make on that strategy is to sell the covered calls when the stock is above $9.
Now - the longer we go the more the opportunity to see the break out occur, meaning eventually sold calls will get called out, assuming the sector does break out. I believe your latest covered calls netted you over $3000 in premium. That's your 2nd cycle of selling covered calls on the 3000 shares. Imagine 6-7 cycles of doing that. You'd be darn close to recouping 100% of the TOTAL price of ALL your shares.
Now - the longer we go the more the opportunity to see the break out occur, meaning eventually sold calls will get called out, assuming the sector does break out. I believe your latest covered calls netted you over $3000 in premium. That's your 2nd cycle of selling covered calls on the 3000 shares. Imagine 6-7 cycles of doing that. You'd be darn close to recouping 100% of the TOTAL price of ALL your shares.
GPRO breakout signaled
Love this. I recently finished up a bunch of Tasty Trade Options videos along with another Options podcast I found that have helped me grasp the concept of options and how the mechanism works. It's all making a lot more sense to me now that I've got the basic concepts and strategies down. Thanks to you guys for posting charts and strategies transparently like this because it's all really starting to click for me now.
army can you explain the breakout on GPRO?
Whats going on with the gold miners today? Most are down 7% or more.
0708aggie said:
Whats going on with the gold miners today? Most are down 7% or more.
The gold miner trade has collapsed. A Fed guy was quoted as saying interest rates should be much higher. That strengthens the dollar and kills gold for now. Gold is currently down $38.
I am laying off the gold miners until sometime after the election. As oldarmy said, they aren't going to let any negative news out until Hillary is a lock.
At some point people are going to lose confidence in the Fed and central banks ability to manufacture prosperity and that will be the time to own the gold miners again. In the end, central banks will print away the value of paper currencies in a failed effort to manufacture enough growth to pay for too much spending and debt.
Wrong thread
TriumphForks said:
This is long as to answer it right it has to be, took me most the day on the side of what was a great day of trading.
For people like oldarmy and Aggiemetal, how did you get to the point where you were able to leave a "normal" job and trade for a living?
What Randy said on my previous job end.
That and about 4 years of hard work and trial by fire. Learning my pain tolerance when tested, curbing or at least harnessing emotions of fear and greed in being mechanical in managing winner and losers (doesn't sound hard but it's a lot of work and discipline and probably the hardest aspect at least for me) .
Randy and I are just introducing our skill sets for you guys here to take or leave, but none of it will matter unless people can master their own set of mechanics (we're two totally different styles, but we both have a core strategy and set of mechanics we follow like waking up and brushing our teeth--he's more directional, I rely more on theta decay, probability and trade location, volatility crush, as it allows me to win big even when I'm dead wrong. I guess the common denominator is we both aggressively manage winners, are always improving our basis so if/when big events occur against us we've already covered our backside a great deal before a second of the position has even ticked off the clock, not to mention the other management things to that end I'll get to later )
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How are/were you confident enough in your abilities that the inevitable uncertainty that the future brings doesn't cause you to seek something with more stability?
Nothing is stable as we think. People everywhere slowly and silently kill themselves doing jobs and living "stable" lives they hate b/c they are too afraid of taking risk or doing something different. Maybe they are loyal company men only to get layed off out of nowhere or even with a brief heads up. I was there as the former, invested my life in teaching was in heaven for 6 years, then we got an idiot superintendent bent on hippie nonsense enabling alternatives to actual discipline (that inner city kids crave) and i endured 5 years of hell for me and my students I tried to empower and totally burned me out (had no desire to change districts after a few years hoping for better). Fortunately while I wanted to be gone 4 or years ago, God gave me what I needed not what I wanted at the time and I had 4 overlapping years of free time on this side (and a very cool wife that facilitated that) to master what I do now as my own boss, with no bs politics or other crap most have to deal with on the traditional job. Not that it has to be all that, I really wanted to get to this point long ago b/c I just love it.
I'd argue this is very stable if you know what you are doing (as I've outlined or will outline most aspects above and below). Many traders fail, but they somewhere along the way miss even 1 or 2 of the things I mention in this post (above and below) at the least or did so too early in their learning curve never allowing themselves the time to get it right eventually and have success later down the line. Simply put I sleep like a baby b/c I know what I'm doing.
See above section for actual trade things mentioned, plus I almost always balance my deltas (downside protection against my puts) usually with short outright /ES future(s) against my short puts, it doesn't totally even things out when there's an explosion to the downside but it definitely keeps the initial bleed low and very manageable and kind of acts like a parking break. Also good trade location not forcing trades as much as at least starting with good trade location (not always my strongest but I've gotten better even in the last few months (see my FOMO post some page above LOL ). You rarely nail it but if you start towards price extremes usually less room to go against, again not a given but it's just part of the basics any successful trader is going to do.
Brexit was a great test early on in my full time tenure. Long time traders have that ranked right up there with 1987, and 2008 . . .anyways that night I entered actually without a hedge (never done it again since) but even entering with +500 plus spy weighted deltas b/c I thought it would be BS like fiscal cliff, greece, all that crap. Anyways after once again screwing up direction (I pretty much have a knack for it LOL and it doesn't matter w/ my style) I immediately started balancing deltas and scalping futures against it all night until the circuit breakers literally went off in the wee hours of the morning. It was not a comfy night, I won't lie, but I put the emotion aside and used the skillset, entered that morning relatively even (even at it's worst before I started working around the original position I was only down 6% which is a lot but not even close to devastating, and I knew it was temporary once I put the counter skills in action). Of course once the dust settled I sold insanely overstated juiced premium until my hands bled as it was a gift from God. The other part of the equation tying into that is I'm always small enough where I have room with my capital to make adjustments. I'll restate that to answer your next question, you don't have to be tiny but you need to be small enough where you can adjust and manage your position when the poop hits the fan . . . or enable you to get bigger when oppty offers that juiced up premium
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It seems like such a delicate balance to strike between maintaining enough capital to make money off trades but yet taking on enough risk to earn a large enough return to live off of. I would think that no professional trader is more than a few critical missteps away from it all being over. I know each of you (while different) have a defined strategy that you stick to - but I'd think there has to be a weakness somewhere in the strategy. Nothing is fool proof.
That's surely true for traders that go to big for their account, can't manage thier fear/greed and or just plain do stupid things giving themselves no probabilistic edge (just about anything is better than a 50/50 stock play, know matter what people think they know, except buying options which is worse b/c it not only has to be the right direction but almost go that way immediately before the theta eats you alive). Anyways I'm not worried in the least, my skill set works, not cocky or foolish, it's based out of the absolute confidence in the skill set baptised in a lot of fire. It took a lot of years to get here and I've had several big black swan moves, which while of course they can sting a bit early, end up setting me up with great opportunity and have me on guard with my finger on the trigger to take further action, if there is continuation from said move. I keep a close eye on things not just b/c it's prudent but b/c I love doing it (if people don't have a passion or love for it they probably aren't going to be real successful). Options also offer you a huge array of, well options to hedge and manage your position cheaply and they in themselves are way cheaper and less capital intensive than outright stock.
It's a lot to digest at first but humbly speaking, I'm a monkey and if I can figure it out, anyone can, Randy got me in the arena and though I really suck at the TA that he's superb at, it taught me a ton in all facets, and of course on the strict options side tastytrade and dough made it a lot easier for me and were/are a wealth of free info if people are willing to put in the work. Personally I can't wait for another huge down move, volatility sucks now, I'm doing great but collecting a ton more premium and being able to go even farther OTM to get that premium is awesome.
There's risk in everything in life, be smart, work hard, be aware, keep your greed in check, improve your basis, take advantage of oppty, execute quickly, don't force it when it's not there, and cover your a $ $ . . .that's trading and life. It's still not for all and if someone is extremely risk averse they can always get a dog. . . or a mutual fund
Tom's delivery is pretty blase and matter of fact about most things. But they do address it all the time and apply it real life and I agree,we take all kinds of risk each day we don't even think about, it's why we're passionate about why not take some risk in the only game when the odds flip the table and you are the house (all kinds of ways to define and build risk into your positions). Options are way less risky than you'd think once you get comfortable with the domain.bmks270 said:
From the tasty trade videos I have seen, I feel like they gloss over the risks somewhat. They mention ITM/OTM probabilities at expiration, but they rarely mention that the probability it will touch a certain price is much higher...
They talk about probability of touch all the time. You may have to search on their site but I know they have studies and possibly even tell you how to calculate it or where to find it on the platforms (I obviously don't really worry about it much) but I know they address it a lot.
Yeah, I need to figure out how to do limits so a I can preset these things. I just missed the $9.00 peak the other day.