SN $7.31. Hard to see any major support between here and that $6.70 mark short term. I'd scratch the 3000 buy alternative at this point but still always like buying back covered calls with over a $1 premium back for 5 or 10 cents.

oldarmy1 said:

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brd79 said:

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So do we buy apple or the twitter?

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Coin flip?

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Whew, glad I held off on twitter.

Updated TWTR drop news.


Actual move down is based on Salesforce signaling they aren't ready to make any offer for TWTR.

so......... still dont buy?

Anyone like KMI going into earnings today? Reporting after market closes with an EPS estimate of 0.15.

Hal KILLED it this morning. Solid earnings in a low revenue environment. Blasting through previous 52 week high.

Hey oldarmy1,

This thread is great, thanks for doing it! Where could I learn more about selling covered options based upon the strategy you outlined a couple posts above? I've bought and sold calls/puts in the past but never looked at selling covered options.

Dear oldarmy1,

I have a question about information releases. A few weeks ago, an "data analysis" company came out with information that Netflix was going to add 0 new subscribers this quarter. The stock tanked like 10% that day. Then all day Friday and Monday there was a deluge of negative information on Netflix earnings and subscriber growth. Every news outlet I could read said that the earnings were going to be a huge miss. The stock tanked based off of the news just prior to earnings. Then when earnings came out Monday evening, the stock shot up like a rocket, around 19%, because the Netflix earnings were so much better than the estimated.

My question is: is there someone manipulating the news and thus the stock price? It seems like a totally rigged thing. How much of the "inside sources" type news do you believe? Can you believe any news?

Joseph Parrish said:

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Maroon Stormtrooper said:

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Dear oldarmy1,

I have a question about information releases. A few weeks ago, an "data analysis" company came out with information that Netflix was going to add 0 new subscribers this quarter. The stock tanked like 10% that day. Then all day Friday and Monday there was a deluge of negative information on Netflix earnings and subscriber growth. Every news outlet I could read said that the earnings were going to be a huge miss. The stock tanked based off of the news just prior to earnings. Then when earnings came out Monday evening, the stock shot up like a rocket, around 19%, because the Netflix earnings were so much better than the estimated.

My question is: is there someone manipulating the news and thus the stock price? It seems like a totally rigged thing. How much of the "inside sources" type news do you believe? Can you believe any news?

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Don't believe everything you read. Things are often written to enhance somebody's position.

I've seem multiple articles that were untrue about the company that I work for, and I think it's because somebody was trying to short the stock.

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Elections, markets, stocks....everything is open to manipulation. I read that same NFLX article and it was incredibly short-sited in both analysis and sector.

quick question from a traditional buy and hold guy:

bought NFLX at 90, should I sell and buy back in at a dip? Or should I just stay put?

Just curious on the board's opinion.

Tia

I sold all mine. Netflix has been incredibly erratic. I'll sell some puts next time there's some bull crap story that makes the stock tank.

0708aggie said:

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Anyone like KMI going into earnings today? Reporting after market closes with an EPS estimate of 0.15.

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I opened a poor man's covered call on KMI yesterday before earnings.

Sold 4 KMI Oct16 22 Calls @ $0.17
Bought 4 KMI Jan18 20 Calls @ $3.25

After the volatility crush today, I rolled the short position.

Bought 4 KMI Oct16 22 Calls @ $0.05
Sold 4 KMI Dec16 24 Calls @ $0.28

Plan to roll those calls on down the line and reduce my cost basis over the next year and a half.

Joseph....some oil sector earnings coming out next few days. Gives you some insight into SN 11-14 earnings. Bummer that their earnings are post election because there is gonna be a ton of aftermath clutter on the charts.

At any rate. If you were to go with one more round of covered calls make sure they are BEFORE Nov. 8th expiration, although technically you could go beyond that date and buy them back if in your favor going into the election.

As far as target area to start checking strike premium's the current trend line is $8.85 top channel, so as it approaches that you'd sell your covered calls. HOWEVER, watch these oil sector results and if bullish then you should get another leg bullish breakout before finding a new resistance point.

Yeah, I've noticed the uptick lately. Glad you told me to buy it back because we might be at the $8.00 range tomorrow. I'll definitely be paying attention as it creeps up further.

Joseph Parrish said:

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Yeah, I've noticed the uptick lately. Glad you told me to buy it back because we might be at the $8.00 range tomorrow. I'll definitely be paying attention as it creeps up further.

I won't leave ya hangin!

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Just another TWTR spotlight move.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/235261/should-you-get-rid-of-sanchez-energy-sn-now?cid=CS-ZC-HL-235261

Joseph, the analyst are beating up SN.

oldarmy1 said:

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http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/235261/should-you-get-rid-of-sanchez-energy-sn-now?cid=CS-ZC-HL-235261

Joseph, the analyst are beating up SN.

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Looks like that article is getting traction.

I sold my shares in case this drops further. That puts me at over a 45% gain for this year. I'll be ready to buy back if it drops too far.

Joseph Parrish said:

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I sold my shares in case this drops further. That puts me at over a 45% gain for this year. I'll be ready to buy back if it drops too far.

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I would have suggested some deeper covered calls, like $6 December $18 calls at the mid-level $3.40 premium. If you had any takers you'd have $9.40 effective sold price if it's high enough above $6 OR $34k in call premium banked if it's below $6 by then, effectively covering 100% of your share purchase price.

Still, a 45% gain on 10k shares is a SOLID winner. You just beat every single 401k fund manager like a drum.

Anyone looking at jumping in Weatherford (WFT)? Baker and Halliburton both jumped on earnings.

Pasted from Macro and adding a trader caveat. Markets have been easy to short without any pain with a narrowing channel. There is no "easy" money on wallstreet so if the market is going to trend down expect a brief break upward to chase out shorts holding pat. The same argument can be made for a breakdown chasing out longs before a new bull leg. Until/Unless I'm 100% confident I won't post a macro signal.

Just wanted to give traders a reminder.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/26/strategist-tom-lee-makes-case-for-double-digit-sp-500-return-by-the-end-of-2016.html

Tom is a decent strategist on market analysis but nearly always a bull minded approach. He sees a super rally hitting to finish the year. But then he say the markets have been acting "strangely" and he says he's not sure why.

That is someone too close to the epicenter because it is crystal clear that this market is going to break up or down immediately after the election, or into it next week if big money has enough data to anticipate the outcome.

Meanwhile, the markets hit that mid-channel resistance yesterday and had no follow through, slowly deteriorating early gains all day. This morning futures are down early and the tip of the spear chart just keeps honing in with narrower days.

First large fund manager who blinks will most likely break this puppy out ahead of the election. But make no mistake, the markets are completely focused on Nov. 8th.

Another good piece of analysis is the dollar pattern shows a stronger dollar signaled. That would generally be bearish for stocks, so it's a mixed bag.

On an early flight with doors closing. Have a great day!

Appreciate the insight!

oldarmy1 said:

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Pasted from Macro and adding a trader caveat. Markets have been easy to short without any pain with a narrowing channel. There is no "easy" money on wallstreet so if the market is going to trend down expect a brief break upward to chase out shorts holding pat. The same argument can be made for a breakdown chasing out longs before a new bull leg. Until/Unless I'm 100% confident I won't post a macro signal.

Just wanted to give traders a reminder.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/26/strategist-tom-lee-makes-case-for-double-digit-sp-500-return-by-the-end-of-2016.html

Tom is a decent strategist on market analysis but nearly always a bull minded approach. He sees a super rally hitting to finish the year. But then he say the markets have been acting "strangely" and he says he's not sure why.

That is someone too close to the epicenter because it is crystal clear that this market is going to break up or down immediately after the election, or into it next week if big money has enough data to anticipate the outcome.

Meanwhile, the markets hit that mid-channel resistance yesterday and had no follow through, slowly deteriorating early gains all day. This morning futures are down early and the tip of the spear chart just keeps honing in with narrower days.

First large fund manager who blinks will most likely break this puppy out ahead of the election. But make no mistake, the markets are completely focused on Nov. 8th.

Another good piece of analysis is the dollar pattern shows a stronger dollar signaled. That would generally be bearish for stocks, so it's a mixed bag.

On an early flight with doors closing. Have a great day!

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So does this mean your "yellow/red" defcon signal to pull our money out of that market is relying on the possibility that trump is elected? Now it sounds like you would expect major gains or major loses based on who wins.

oldarmy1 said:

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Guess the question is the move UP or DOWN?

I got several friends pulling everything out of the market and "wait and see" how the market reacts. Does the thread have any thoughts?

My wife owns a small retail boutique. About 6 months ago sales ground to a halt and have been abysmal since then. All her network of associates across the country have been experiencing the same thing. Last week she went to a big trade show in Vegas and all the manufacturers and suppliers she deals with wound up tight because nationwide the economy is stagnant. Everyone is just sitting on their money. I can only assume it is because of uncertainty surrounding the election.

To be quite honest, I don't think it matters who wins, I expect a big downward correction in November. This is not based on any metric other than the two heaps of dung running for president.

I really appreciate your telling us of your wife's real life experience. I'm in oil and gas and it's been tough the last couple years after a great run. I just don't see anyway all these new regulations, Obamacare premium increases and tax increases produces anything resembling a good economy.

I regret that I have to tell that story. She had a thriving small business for a few year that was doing well. At this point she is thinking about shutting down and getting a "real job"

Everyone expects the market to tank post election. That's probably when they will take out all of your stops and force you to FOMO buy your shares back higher. If you're a long term holder and are going to trim on a pullback, trim now and buy through the next dip,