ProgN said:
https://twitter.com/untappedgrowth/status/1488882399647780871?s=20&t=B-15ZEScJ0OWY8qWqBtCFg
What do you make of this?
I read the montage. Here goes,..
1.) Fertilizer prices are more than double - all true. Some producers held off purchasing early needs thinking supplies would back up and prices would drop. Big mistake. (We booked early and are just under 2X cost from last year-2021. You can't cut back on fertilizer in Central TX and make a crop as the growing environment is not conducive to such a practice. Bite the bullet or you're out.) Likely see some Central TX producers go bk if corn prices do not increase heading toward harvest.
2.) Midwest - I live here - producers going heavy on soybean acres as it takes less fertilizer inputs. Planting seed/soybeans, it's true, very tight supplies. Bean prices are good. Producers will hedge a profit using Futures and Basis and live to fight another year. They'll be an abundance of beans at harvest this year...good for renewable fuel huh?...while we move to EV's.. As for U.S. corn acres, they'll be reduced SOMEWHAT. Takes fertilizer to make big corn yields, but the growing environment here in the Midwest is extremely resilient and forgiving - always make a big crop here. Producers here that normally shoot for 300 bu/ac corn know it's not in the cards this year and they know how to calibrate backwards with precision - turn back the fertilizer/save money - and still harvest 150 bu/ac in a profitable manner. So, overall U.S. corn acres will be reduced somewhat leading analysts to believe corn yield numbers will be there at harvest like every year, BUT the real impact will be the dialing back of fertilizer, planting a corn crop and accepting a reduced yield. We don't have that luxury in Cnetral TX. And, the "planned" yield reduction can hurt a producer up here in ways it doesn't affect a producer in KS, OK, TX, so this is a real planned effort by the producer to be able to stay in the game another year - get through 2022 and survive to be standing in 2023. Mid-West decisions have already been made, supplies booked, and money spent. ....... We'll be planting in Central TX in 45 days - all corn at family estate. Freeze-line will be at 2.5 to 3 feet where I live.
3.) Winston-Salem, I didn't see/read how old that article was. I have contacts there. I will call and follow up to this post to see what is taking place.
4.) I think I covered all points. If I missed something - call me out.
Wheat is more the grain to keep your eye on as a consumer. Corn goes into all other facets and is important too, but wheat is bread and when flour gets expensive, there's no substitute.
Remember this easy phrase - "You can always feed wheat, but you can't convince people to eat cornbread." ~ Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Translation, an over supply of wheat can be fed to the animal population for consumption when people aren't consuming enough; however, a shortage of wheat and you got real problems.
