Can you spell out what you think today's volume confirms?

Another good free site for volatility readings trading the VIX.

http://www.ivolatility.com/roller/page/trader?entry=volume_16_issue_35_br

DOW futures down 107 with the Fed budget out this afternoon. Oil dropped and comments that there is a ways to go for any recovery in prices impacting market. Expect oil related stocks to give back recent spikes.

Edit new lows -118

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If we approach that high, would today be a good day to move 401ks into cash? It looks like the bottom of the channel defined by the lows on Feb 11 and Jun 27 (S&P 500) is holding, but I know you may have a clearer picture of the market direction in the intermediate term.

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Inquiring minds want to know...did you move your 401k to cash yesterday?

Sure did. Appreciate the heads up and candid advice as always.

-145 now. Downdraft hit

Well, volatility is back near term anyway.

Wonder if it has anything at all to do with Hillary floundering a bit. She's still gonna win easily, but might have to work at it a little now.

One more public display of medical issues and Hillary would be toast.

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One more public display of medical issues and Hillary would be toast.

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I think you underestimating (or over estimating) 60 million Americans.

Moved into 50/50 mix of Stocks vs Bonds/Cash at the close of the market yesterday.

Anxiously waiting the "BUY" signals.

Thanks Oldarmy et all.

Trade of the day was 3X Bear Nasdaq SQQQ when inexplicably the Nasdaq decided to buck the futures and jump +66 before taking a reality pill and racing to -93. Who came up with that bright idea?!

Thank you all for the sound advice y'all give for free on this thread.

Here's my dilema, in my 401k, I currently do not have a self directed portfolio. I am diversified across the following funds

Dodge & Cox International (DODFX)
Fidelity International Index (FSIIX)
Amernican Funds New World R6 (RNWGX)
American Beacon Small Cp Val (AVFIX)
Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Growth (FCIGX)
Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXAX)
Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
Vanguard Growth Index (FIGAX)
Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)

I was going to move out of roughly 75% of each of those positions into a bond/ stable funds.

The kicker is, when I move out, I can't move back in for 30 days.

I know our 401k has a self directed option, but that is a separate area that I haven't explored and its more like a brokerage account.

Should I still move out of positions even though I may miss the bottom and end up to the same place we are at in 30 days?

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Thank you all for the sound advice y'all give for free on this thread.

Here's my dilema, in my 401k, I currently do not have a self directed portfolio. I am diversified across the following funds

Dodge & Cox International (DODFX)
Fidelity International Index (FSIIX)
Amernican Funds New World R6 (RNWGX)
American Beacon Small Cp Val (AVFIX)
Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Growth (FCIGX)
Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXAX)
Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
Vanguard Growth Index (FIGAX)
Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)

I was going to move out of roughly 75% of each of those positions into a bond/ stable funds.

The kicker is, when I move out, I can't move back in for 30 days.

I know our 401k has a self directed option, but that is a separate area that I haven't explored and its more like a brokerage account.

Should I still move out of positions even though I may miss the bottom and end up to the same place we are at in 30 days?

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If we have a market reversal, or the recent top becomes evident as that being it, 30 days will be nothing to sit out. 4-6 months minimum on reversal moves.

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Dodge & Cox International (DODFX)
Fidelity International Index (FSIIX)
Amernican Funds New World R6 (RNWGX)
American Beacon Small Cp Val (AVFIX)
Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Growth (FCIGX)
Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXAX)
Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
Vanguard Growth Index (FIGAX)
Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)

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If you decide to pare back your equity holdings, it would probably be a good time to pare down some of your fund holdings. You've got a lot of overlapping exposure in your holdings, and unless you're attempting to tactically overweight or underweight different segments of the US equity markets you could probably get by with three or four funds instead of your current nine.

Good stuff JH...I do not use funds for investing so insight from those who do is great.

Sweet, let's hit that short. I'm not liking the 4-6 months comment though! That would be rough.

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Sweet, let's hit that short. I'm not liking the 4-6 months comment though! That would be rough.

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$9 strike calls are $100 ( 10 cents x 100 x 10) for 1000 shares if you are concerned about your shares being called out. Personally, I'd prefer they cash out as you build cash position during the uncertainty. Of course at $8.50 any further decline will result in you still having those shares.

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Sweet, let's hit that short. I'm not liking the 4-6 months comment though! That would be rough.

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$9 strike calls are $100 ( 10 cents x 100 x 10) for 1000 shares if you are concerned about your shares being called out. Personally, I'd prefer they cash out as you build cash position during the uncertainty. Of course at $8.50 any further decline will result in you still having those shares.

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I think I'm just gonna take my chances and let it play out.

Smart. Don't think of it as chances. It's a strategy. You basically are saying "You want X shares for $8.75? Take them!" If it turns out you keep the shares then the 2nd part of the strategy comes into play. You could turn around and sell covered calls again. You could sell the shares at the current value, if above $8 and whatever the difference is gets added to $8.75 for actual share sell.

3rd strategy would be to rebuy the shares if below $8.75 and you've netted the difference, although I would not do that.

oldarmy1, after reading this thread I decided that I wanted to look further into moving all of my 401K into a "cash" position, however, my fund elections (through John Hancock) do not have a "cash" option. However, I was able to find a Federated Capital Preservation Fund83,142,144.... is this what I should be looking at or should I just make a phone call and get more detail information from JH? Thank you

I'm also curious on the "moving to cash" of 401K's. I'm assuming that this means re-allocating existing balances from funds that contain corporate stock in to safer, less volatile funds (government bonds, CD's, etc).

Basically banking on the notion that the market has been high for so long that it's got to correct sometime soon, and when it does then you're safeguarding your 401k from the loss if you move the money now from corporate stock funds to government bonds/CD funds. Is that right? Sorry, new to this.

For me, I have a stable value fund available from
fidelity that I move into (I'm typically very heavy on equities being that I'm 25) when a macro change in the market occurs

Call Hancock and find out what that capital preservation fund make up is....sounds like it could be a mix of money markets and bonds, which would be adequate, as long as tbe bonds aren't short term interest rate sensitive.

A note on the "markets have been so high that they will go down" thought. I have no confirmation of the current action as being THE top, but simply spotted A top. People who got out either before the initial 400 point drop or on Mondays bounce day are out darn close to all time market highs.

If we do not see this past Friday lows taken out then we watch and see if consolidation occurs into a rebound. The upper resistance would then be tested, not at market highs but around the initial breakdown gap created last Friday.

I posted that if we held above Friday and Monday lows Tuesday then a likely higher open happens today. That looks in play premarket but is not a macro indicator. Our focus should be that gap down point and the lowest close mark Friday.

All this to say it was/is prudent to move at least 50% of holdings into a capital/cash position when you can do so near highs when a clear warning sign is spotted. A 400 point single day drop might be a correction or it might be the warning shot ahead of a macro reversal.

Bottom line, as stated, it is not a big deal to be down 400 or so points from highs. An orderly and disciplined move of equities/funds anywhere midlevel between recent lows and highs is prudent while we take a wait and see approach.

Hope this helps.

p.s. Futures reversed premarket mainly due to Ford comments that they expect a lower revenue year in 2017.

OIL EIA report out and gives oil shares a small bounce early.

Joseph did you watch that crazy SN spike? $8.37 to over $8.70 in 6 minutes and then dropping quickly back to $8.48 right now. LOL

Found buyers finally at $8.43. When you see a move like that it is either the big money got caught on the wrong side of the trade or it was a short shake. The way you'll know which is if it completely loses the entire gain or if it works back to a new high on volume.

Head & Shoulders intraday forming shared by Jeff. And if you had current chart you would see right shoulder form but quickly break down leading to market dropping. Sellers are out there in force so big bulls have no easy path upwards right now. THIS IS INTRADAY INFO ONLY...HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH MACRO READ.

LVS is in the midst of a short squeeze. As it approaches 60 major resistance a Put trade at $55 would be in play.

Any thoughts on AAPL? Was planning to sell at $110, but after the last couple of days I'm wondering if I should hold a little longer. Do you think it has momentum to keep rising even with a market drop, or is it at a short-term peak?

I just don't see Cook as the answer there in the long haul, so have been trying to find the timing to dump it.

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Any thoughts on AAPL? Was planning to sell at $110, but after the last couple of days I'm wondering if I should hold a little longer. Do you think it has momentum to keep rising even with a market drop, or is it at a short-term peak?

I just don't see Cook as the answer there in the long haul, so have been trying to find the timing to dump it.

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So much to consider on AAPL, especially with Samsung's travails. $112 is last major resistance so if it pops that it will run at least 5%. Maybe take a portion off the table here close to resistance. Strategies would include selling a covered call at $112 out two weeks (17 days), Buy a short term protective Put around $107 for 10 cents and see if it breaks resistance for a run...who cares about 10 cents a share then, right? That's how I would trade it.

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Joseph did you watch that crazy SN spike? $8.37 to over $8.70 in 6 minutes and then dropping quickly back to $8.48 right now. LOL

Found buyers finally at $8.43. When you see a move like that it is either the big money got caught on the wrong side of the trade or it was a short shake. The way you'll know which is if it completely loses the entire gain or if it works back to a new high on volume.

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Ha, no I didn't see that. I'm 2 hours behind all of you guys in Texas. I'm glad it's headed back towards $8.00 though!

3rd day inside Friday. Wednesday inside Tuesday inside Monday inside Friday. Condensing and equalizing into the apex of a triangle. Likely a very large move coming in next 24 hours.

TLT also in play for a big move. If 133 range breakout confirms here, over 136 and it's going back to 138+. No rate raise next week and it moves over 140 and perhaps into a new high and consolidation range. Rejection at 135 and 132 to 127 in play to downside.

I'm holding it in my IRA with USAA so I can only do covered calls. Since it has broken $112, I'll give it another day and see what it does. Then I'll debate on using a stop or covered call. Thanks for the insight on the $112 resistance.

Here are a couple of macro views on TLT and intraday