McInnis 03 said:

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Here is my conspiracy theory after a little thought, wasn't the Fed buying half a trillion in equities today?

Think he waited to start until they were ready to buy? He started his conference late....

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Think he started late to give Nancy the opportunity to submit and give a bill just for the Coronavirus before he threw her under the bus for loading it with pork

Isn't the Fed buying treasuries?

Good. We're opening green unless tragedy strikes.

Appreciate it. These are my thoughts, I don't have this modeled: widespread misses in Q1, and neg growth in Q2. Whether we get cascading effects that exacerbate things, not sure. Based on the Fed and Govt Actions, their models obviously show this is massive risk to the system that was already showing signs of issues (previous rate cut near highs, Repo op, rate inversion).

Yesterday was another peak low in my data. I think it will be retested, but market may consolidate until more is know.

What worries me is the severity of the first -30% of this. Most of these accelerate into a bottom and accelerating from this is hard to imagine.

Other than the President making a great speech in unifying the public and private sector, what good has been happening in this market?

We're on the front side of an outbreak, with a tall hill to climb. Now, couple the pandemic with the Energy (oil) crisis , and you compound things. To put the icing on the cake, we've got major industries coming to a halt, and an all out travel ban to Europe.

Companies are already greasing the skids for Q1 and Q2 misses.

Other than a speech and accelerated testing (which will prove more positives and incite more panic), what's good with this market?

Its good for folks to invest now and hold on for later.

Did anyone already post this?

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-donald-trump-google-website/

So... about that website... turns out Google isn't actually developing it. Trump is like the Wizard of Oz

More than anything i just found it funny. From the article it says that Google wasn't aware he was going to say that. So they released a statement that a company they owned called Verily was building a platform for the Bay Area only and would potentially roll it out to other markets from there. Also, verily's original plan was to build it for healthcare workers only. But according to Trump there are 1,700 Google engineers working on a nationwide site where anyone will be able to find testing sites.

See this article too:
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/3/13/21179118/google-coronavirus-testing-screening-website-drive-thru-covid-19?__twitter_impression=true

jj9000 said:

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Other than the President making a great speech in unifying the public and private sector, what good has been happening in this market?

We're on the front side of an outbreak, with a tall hill to climb. Now, couple the pandemic with the Energy (oil) crisis , and you compound things. To put the icing on the cake, we've got major industries coming to a halt, and an all out travel ban to Europe.

Companies are already greasing the skids for Q1 and Q2 misses.

Other than a speech and accelerated testing (which will prove more positives and incite more panic), what's good with this market?

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boyz05 said:

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All the engineers are calling each other saying "WTF? Did you know about this?"

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That's not uncommon for visionaries to tell their reports to "make it work." Musk is known for this, Henry Ford was too, now Trump.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Trumps statement today and what I read in your post is no different then CEO's I worked for and how they operated. It now puts the onus on the backs of others to "deliver", whether they like it or not. This methodology or strategy works and gets results. It may not lend itself to having good relations with these folks(Google/Verily), but he is leading/managing them to help this country in a difficult time of need and not looking to make friends. Trump has an entire population to worry about.

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To be fair, sometimes the deliverable is the bare minimum needed to satisfy the vision/promise of the executive. A lot of these end up being busy work projects that make it appear as if an organization is doing something.

I mean, he coordinated with all the other CEO's at the meeting, just seems a little weird that one part wasn't close to reality. I'm sure they'll do their best to make it work.

Haha

I have heard some speculation that the recovery will be as severe as the drop.

What are your thoughts on the next 2-4 months?

Was headed to Vegas next Wed-Fri for Bachelor party and March Madness....

Now no party, just March Sadness

These low interest rates with low unemployment (assuming job losses will be moderate) will cause a spike 'if' confidence comes back sooner than later.
Trump is getting the fed cuts he wanted for past 2 years with more coming next week, and he will also get the onshoring wave he has wanted 'if' that confidence returns (no later than mid April hopefully). Everything' could line up for his economic plans, oddly, if the end of this virus is executed effectively.

We are going lower. Much lower. Irrational fear is everywhere.

Schools are closing, travel is canceled, people are all working from home if they can. Earnings are going to be disastrous. The grocery stores are cleared out of rice, beans, canned meat, fresh meat, TP, bleach, hand sanitizer, tide laundry detergent, and frozen chicken.

Every single professional and college athletic team has called it quits. Local youth sports have called it quits also. (I just got my notice)
The bounce today was a gift if you got in.

We are at the very beginning of our covid-19 infection in the US. More test kits are not going to fix this.

Page 1106. Jeezus.

when does vegas shut down?






never....

Wrong thread

claym711 said:

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I have heard some speculation that the recovery will be as severe as the drop.

What are your thoughts on the next 2-4 months?

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Get ready for a new term- "Reverse Bubble"...it's like reverse racism, doesn't make sense...but you know exactly what it means.

Market may have hit a bottom Thursday $239 and bounced. This would be the December 18 bottom from China trade talks with some give for inflation.
I expect us to head down to the 180 retest

The concerns for me are:

• National Credit/Student Loan/Mortgage Debt
• Virus potential to spread and mutate (given it is SARS and not the flu)
• China Trade back and forth before pulling out entirely
• Oil pricing

Also the Russell index has lost 30% compared to the SPY/DOW ~20%.
Smaller companies are leading the race down which could cause the larger companies that rely on those smaller companies to not have the legs to stand up on.
Imagine UPS/Fedex/USPS shutting down or stopping shipments and the effects on AMZN