FriscoKid said:

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Sorry. Hopefully just some playful ribbing.

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Oh for sure. I'm not too upset, but def wish I had the cojones to honor my original thesis.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Chuck Todd and Chris Wallace will have their work cut for them to rip up today's announcement.

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Yup. Lol.

Prognightmare said:

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This market is wound so tight that it going to explode to at least the model T when these fears subside. I wouldn't be short overnight at all in the next week or two.

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I bought some puts during the run-up at the end to hold over the weekend. It's limited downside to hedge against my long positions, so I don't feel too bad. I agree that I would not want to have much short overnight because you could get bit hard.

This weekend is going to be very interesting.

That's buying protection which is smart. Holding short positions on a market that will spike higher is dumb. The amount of cash accumulated on the sidelines has to be put back to work. Holding short, especially high beta names, is a unnecessary risk, imo.

Prognightmare said:

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This market is wound so tight that it going to explode to at least the model T when these fears subside. I wouldn't be short overnight at all in the next week or two.

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There will be a recession. You're getting ahead of yourself. Bear markets bounce wildly.

claym711 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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This market is wound so tight that it going to explode to at least the model T when these fears subside. I wouldn't be short overnight at all in the next week or two.

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There will be a recession. You're getting ahead of yourself. Bear markets bounce wildly.

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Agree. This didn't change the financial hit we have taken and will take over the next few months. It also didn't stop the spread of the virus. It gave us a gift for a short entry. IMO of course.

SPY puts next week?

It's hard to tell what part of this downturn has already priced in the fact that March will be a bad economic month now (and probably April) vs how much worse it will get

Trump can really circle the wagons though, awesome speech that i hope people get behind just to save us from the craziness in our day to day lives

gougler08 said:

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It's hard to tell what part of this downturn has already priced in the fact that March will be a bad economic month now (and probably April) vs how much worse it will get

Trump can really circle the wagons though, awesome speech that i hope people get behind just to save us from the craziness in our day to day lives

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Yeah, I know this is the investing thread, but it would be nice to get a united front against the hysteria, organize, and attack from all fronts calmly. The day to day lives of Americans are being impacted most by that. The longer the hysteria lasts, the closer we get to layoffs, and more extreme negative impacts than 401k dips.

Yes

when will recession start? - already did (in the sense that the slowdown began already)
when will it end? - tough to say as this is a Black Swan event and we are in election year. My guess is GDP will be under 2% for the next 18-24 months.

What part "next week or two" did you not see? I also said a snap back to the model T, not setting new highs. I also made no mention of no recession risks and we're all clear.

When Trump tests positive, look out.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Prognightmare said:

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This market is wound so tight that it going to explode to at least the model T when these fears subside. I wouldn't be short overnight at all in the next week or two.

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I bought some puts during the run-up at the end to hold over the weekend. It's limited downside to hedge against my long positions, so I don't feel too bad. I agree that I would not want to have much short overnight because you could get bit hard.

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I had this exact thought but then realized it was emotional greed, I'm sticking with dollar cost averaging for now, and will assess stocks for good buying opportunities. But I think some hedge puts today into the close would be a good hedge or directional bet for any more active traders.

That is my plan. No way I wanted to bag hold over the weekend. I think the steps being taken are good but we're still behind the 8 ball. What the WH is saying is incongruent with what travelers and doctors in hopitals are saying about the situation re:testing

I doubt he would let that be public if it did happen

It's a fear driven bear market, looks like it should be a V shape ride, but you only need a couple extreme virus events in US to cause another downdraft to new lows.
Can't get confident until total cases peak.

the last of the bohemians said:

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It's a fear driven bear market, looks like it should be a V shape ride, but you only need a couple extreme virus events in US to cause another downdraft to new lows.
Can't get confident until total cases peak.

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I think we trend down until business and commerce turns around. Schools and offices open, and events aren't being canceled left and right.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

McInnis 03 said:

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the market loved the response. Public and private unifying on a cause. Testing is good but what this shows is they can change the rules to accomplish good. If a vaccine or treatment needs to advance, this shows it can be done. Really really good message and action. (I'm not a Trump fanboy)

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It was an excellent press conference and I've been very critical of his response as recently as this morning. I loved how they basically said the private sector has saved and will save our ass on this thing. Because he knows the government is inept.

However, as others have said significant economic damage has been done that can't be reversed. Mostly due to social media and mob mentality but partially due to the haphazard response up until this press conference. We are going to see some airlines go bankrupt over this.

I'd love it if this is the catalyst that pops the S&P500 back to 3,000, but I honestly don't know which way the market will go on Monday. Look at the volume for the positive closes on 3/9 and 3/11 or even 3/3, 3/5 and 3/6. Be careful.

Here is my conspiracy theory after a little thought, wasn't the Fed buying half a trillion in equities today?

Think he waited to start until they were ready to buy? He started his conference late....

After hours looks bad for the mouse.

Jizzle89 said:

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It's down $0.72 AH...

That's an error