Bit of an overreaction. We can't catch a break lately

Nothing like a post technical break sucker bounce.

THIN THIN THIN until it's time. It isn't...

Going to be a long day I'm assuming

oldarmy1 said:

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Nothing like a post technical break sucker bounce.

THIN THIN THIN until it's time. It isn't...

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If we break Feb support it's a long way down.

leoj said:

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Going to be a long short day I'm assuming

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Knew someone would make that pun as soon as I hit post

Anyone buying puts or is it best to sit this out

leoj said:

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Knew someone would make that pun as soon as I hit post

Anyone buying puts or is it best to sit this out

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Position for Puts was yesterday. When you open 500+ down it's not when you buy Puts, it's when you sell on premium volatility. I just bought S&P Futures at 2571 as a hedge lock on Put premiums. I'll look to clear that up with early market action.

Moved to 20% cash.

leoj said:

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Knew someone would make that pun as soon as I hit post

Anyone buying puts or is it best to sit this out

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I wouldn't do it now. Already too late IMO. If we get a bounce then maybe. I bought some yesterday and they are sitting really pretty right now, but I think it's too late right now to chase it.

Thanks.

oldarmy1 said:

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leoj said:

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Knew someone would make that pun as soon as I hit post

Anyone buying puts or is it best to sit this out

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Position for Puts was yesterday. When you open 500+ down it's not when you buy Puts, it's when you sell on premium volatility. I just bought S&P Futures at 2571 as a hedge lock on Put premiums. I'll look to clear that up with early market action.

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Why would you close out early? If we break the February support there will be some real panic.

Do we think this is all tariff driven?

Should be good for gold and Oil today...

85% yes.

Another strategy I use is to sell naked Puts on stocks I wouldn't mind owning at a price point.

Let's say you wanted to own AMZN long term and now it's down $200 from its highs. You can sell a naked Put at Strike Price of $1360. If stock is below $1360 come expiration you have to buy the shares at that price (AGAIN-YOU WERE WILLING TO BUY THE SHARES OUTRIGHT TODAY $1362 CURRENT PRICE). Your net holding price would be $1360 minus the premium (around $20/share) for a net own price of $1340.

If AMZN rebounds then you don't own the shares but pocket the $20/share premium. So it becomes a very profitable trade versus owning the shares where you were willing to own them anyways.

You can use any variation on top of this to reduce downside. Example would be to add a $1300 Put at $5 out a few weeks. If stock is above $1360 You pocket $15/share instead of $20 due to the $5 Put added.

But let's say AMZN continued to meltdown. You'd own the shares at $1360. You'd reduce those to $1340 with the naked Put premium you received and the $1300 Put means a $40 risk window LESS the premium value of the $1300 Put.

So many wonderful toys to use!

I'll take up to 50% off leaving net free trades in place. When you're right on the directional indicator (macro wedge break) and had your Puts in place I'll get my cash out and then see what markets give back.

A lot of the Puts in place require only 20-25% sale of total held. Options are not buy and hold instruments, unless you use the above strategy.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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gougler08 said:

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Do we think this is all tariff driven?

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No not at all. The news breaks with the cycles and we are in a corrective or possible bear market. Trump did many foolish things the first year of his presidency but the market didn't care because it was in a strong bullish trend.

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No way are we in a bear market. Fundamentals are STRONG.

Of course it's tariff driven. Markets hate uncertainty and while Trump said it won't lead to a trade war there is no guarantee it isn't.

That's about as fundamentals as you can get! Then we have uncertainty of power in an election year.

Markets ran up 8500 freaking points in a year. Strong what at these levels? Markets are forward looking with some current event drama sprinkled in.

I agree 100%, when this dust settles we are going to have one hell of a run back up i feel.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Half of the gap down filled at SPX 2594, if this is going to be a trend down day, that is likely near the high of the day.

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And 50% retracement technical is where I dump the early futures buys. Put sells occurred at open.

What causes these? Seems like it just came out of nowhere.

GSK trying to break out. good option opportunity

Bought some puts here. NASDAQ came all the way back.

thin volume for next week GSK 40. What are you looking at?

at what target?

ATM 157

Not holding for long though.

5 minute chart of QQQ

interday support

Made off like a bandit with AMD this morning.

Your support charts are telling me to hold it, and to not sell. However I am still scared of random news breaking out after hours.