This thread just keeps delivering.

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Do you not understand how shorts work? I sold shares at 4.21. I then covered the short at 3.96.

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Damn, you must be feeling pretty foolish seeing as you could have covered the short at 3.75 today. Didn't time that one right did ya? Lol.

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You Target a % return and you take it. You don't get greedy. Lesson for you bud.

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I stay greedy but suck at math. I just made 27k off a 4k investment in a month. What percent return is that on an annual basis?

Hey guys, just checking in. Want to be here on good days and bad.

Still here?

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So...6,150 shares at a shade under 3 stacks of high society puts me at a $4.86 average. I'm going to sit on this, perhaps load another $10k into my scottrade account and just be ready to pounce if I see another opportunity. Again I'm prepared to throw $100k into this by the end of the year if there is a good opportunity for entry and I can lower my avg. significantly.

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Well I think you're going to get plenty of opportunities...

Still here.

But you're not brisket...

You remind me of Paul Blart mall cop.

You police the Internet very well,surfing the web on your Segway.

Agreed

I don't care that he is. I just like calling him out for thinking that we're all ignorant enough to believe that he isn't. He's had his ass handed to him thus far and I find it highly entertaining as well.

I think it's pretty obvious who it is. To everyone. When he said he wasn't OP I think it was more of a wink-wink in case anybody tries to report me to staff asking for a friend type situation.

Doesn't really matter, back to the fireworks!

Colin Blart:

https://cdn3.thedissolve.com/reviews/1526/fullwidth.b4e8ecad.jpg

And the master jumped out at $4.21. Although we haven't seen screen shots

Anyone who is adding offshore drillers to their portfolio at this time are taking some severe risks. This industry hasn't reached its bottom and will not until early 2016, in my speculation.

If you're looking to invest in offshore drillers, I'd stick to the blue-bloods, not a Greek billionaires financial engineering scheme.

Ensco, Transocean, Noble, Diamond Offshore, and Atwood Oceanics are five of the main drillers that will survive this downturn.

If it was a short, then he borrowed at 4.21 looking for it to fall to cover later. Sounds like a good trade now that it's in the 3's.

Me thinks you don't understand short selling.

"He was bragging about a 1.5% gain"

1.5% gain in a couple days. I don't have a financial calculator, but I will gander that is a large annualized return. 4.21 to 3.96 is almost 6%. Still better then anyone that went long, so you can pile on, but its hard to call a positive carry trade.

This thread is awesome. Its all over the place and full of trolls!

Earnings today after the close. Street looking for $.27/share.

I personally think earnings won't matter unless they are bad. DO had fantastic earnings a week and was down 5% day of. RIG killed it yesterday and while they are trading up in pre-market I'd wager they finish in the red today as well. Should be interesting...

Stock up 9% today.

Again while I think earnings are meaningless for ORIG in an envt like this, I will go on record that I think they are going to destroy estimates ($.27).

Damn, $.54 per share.

100% beat!

Stock is up an additional 8% in after hours trading. This is on top of the 10% gain during regular hours trading today.

If oil could gain some traction this could be a huge momentum boost.

Not sure why I'm posting this because I know you aren't interested in any advanced strategies even though you should be if you are so intent on this type of risk, but something for you to consider for tomorrow post earnings news... I'm betting you'll be able to set up a nice $4 and $5 1x2 call spread for somewhere around neutral for the Jan 16 expiration. Buy some $4 call contracts, sell double the amount of $5 call contracts (whatever you can get off). Sets up for a much better return in that area and you aren't losing out on much unless the stock gets to around $6 between now and then which is not likely based on basically every oil fundies report available.

I appreciate your post and strategy...buy it involves hedging, which I am not looking to do. I am looking for maximum risk and reward.

I think you have a hard time understanding me because you are obviously classically trained in the world of finance. You come from the Blackrock arena of risk mgmt.

But I don't want to hedge. I feel very confident oil is going to rebound and I've done a lot of research on ORIG in particular for my investment. There is a reason the stock is down 80% in less than a year, it is a dangerous stock. But one I would argue has a lot of potential b/c of that depressed share price. They announced they have $820 million in cash on hand, this is twice their market cap! Next significant debt payment is due in Q4 '17. Their debt is equivalent to their contract backlog. It's a good company and my bet is solely based upon oil rebounding, which I feel very confident it will, the only question is when.

Again, I feel very confident in my stock pick and b/c of my risk tolerance, age and income I am not looking to hedge my bet and dampen potential future profits.

But I appreciate your post.

I wouldn't call it a hedge... You are just selling your tail event upside to double your returns in the meat of the bell curve for 6 months. You hold the same downside. Not sure I'd mess with the tails if this were a 12 month+ play... But really the question short term you should ask is if your returns are in the toilet, what is the probability that the stock soars to $6 by the end of January? I'd contend that number is super low and minuscule if you are talking about $7 and above price. A 1x2 isn't being suggested to hedge, it's being suggested as a way to catch up your returns cheaply in the short term and then you hold your length January and beyond for the bonanza on the oil rebound that you think is in the future.

I wouldn't be so confident about ORIG not hitting $6. I could just as easily see this stock at $6 as I could $2 by the end of the year.

This is a low dollar, low volume stock in one of the most dynamic sectors in the market. Yesterday the stock was trading at $3.19 in the am and was trading above $4 pre-market this am. 30% swing in 24 hours. Oil goes to $60 this stock will hit $7. Oil goes down to $30 and ORIG will flirt with the $2's.

Let's not kid ourselves here with ORIG, it is 100% an oil play. Nothing else matters.
Again Id be ecstatic to make an options play if I felt reasonably confident on when oil will turn around. Quite simply I don't know when that is going to be. And it's so unpredictable b/c oil isn't solely a supply and demand issue like other commodities. Most notably there are geopolitical factors (terrorism, ME wars, etc) that spring up at unpredictable times. How can anyone predict the timing of such events? I have time on my side and I have liquidity. I'll dabble in options but my main play will be the stock simply b/c I can't time oil's turnaround.

I'll never proclaim oil has bottomed but I do know it is in the neighborhood and that is the basis of my bet.

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Alright July report, not good, but we can't run from the past:

http://i.imgur.com/lp5japt.jpg

Math gets a little fuzzy on the left (my investment) as I tried to normalize after each purchase.

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The conference call last Friday was very interesting. A few of the highlights for me...

ORIG rigs:

http://i.imgur.com/oa1EC0O.png

First thing you notice is how new their rigs are. Only 2 are older than 2011. Old rigs are being scrapped (retired) left and right b/c there is low demand in general for the rigs with oil being so depressed. And when there is ample supply the oil companies want new rigs which are more efficient, reliable and safer. Total number of offshore rigs is 308. Nearly half were made prior to 2005 and most of those are 30+ years old. These rigs are headed for the graveyard and many have already been sent there. ORIG is well suited for a recovery in this sector with the young age of their fleet. Their rigs will be in demand first.


ORIG contracts:

http://i.imgur.com/9mMe1Jq.png

The last 3 rigs are all about when oil turns around, that is company growth. Ocean Rig Santorini may be coming online a little soon, O2 2016. They are in active negotiations to delay delivery. Hopefully they can push it back to 2017. ORIG is best in class when it comes to contracts. This really insulates them from the current downturn. They are 93% contracted out for 2015 and 69% for 2016 and 44% for 2017. Even if they don't find a buyer for any uncontracted rigs for the remainder of 2015 and 2016 they are still going to be making money:

http://i.imgur.com/TiRSCln.png

Impressively the rate for rigs contracted actually increases each of the next 3 years after 2015. Total contract backlog is $4.3 billion which helps to balance out the $4.8 billion debt load:

http://i.imgur.com/JukYCrH.png

The best part of their debt is their first significant debt payment is not due until Q4 of 2017. 2+ years of buffering to get them through this downturn in oil. This provides incredible flexibility and viability.

Something else that helps is the $833 million in cash they have on hand, up from $500 million in just the last 6 months. And don't forget they just scrapped their dividend so I'd expect cash on hand to skyrocket to $1 billion+ easily by year's end. They are weathering the oil downturn very well. Its incredible for a company making money like they do all the while having a very low market cap of only $561 million.

Perhaps the most interesting comment ORIG made during the 2015 Q3 conference call was that they were going to be on the lookout for distressed assets in the near-term. With their peers struggling with much lower contract rates, aging fleets and large near term debt payments there will be excellent buying opportunities. I love that even now they have a mindset of growth and expansion. They are prepared for a market turnaround.

Last qtr. they made $.54/share, beating estimates by 100%. If oil turns around and ORIG continues 90+% contract rate including the new builds, this stock will easily/conservatively pull in $.75/share. That's $3/share per year. In a robust envt. a company can easily swing a 20 P/E ratio. 20 x 3 = $60 stock. That's a coiled spring.

just to catch me up here, what percentage are you down on your money thus far?