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I really need to get more into ORIG before wednesday's oil inventory report. I have a feeling we are going to see big changes in US oil production very soon.

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I really hope that you are correct here, I am starting to get good vibes from forecasters that I trust but cautiously optimistic is better than pessimistic.

You're thinking about dumping $100k into this stock?!?!?!

Go big or go home, I guess.

HIS energy is predicting $53 per for rest of year then up to $59 in 2016 with drilling activity picking up.

Just bought another $10k at 4.815

I liked the oil inventory data. Stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels.

You convinced me. I am going to tepid entrance this afternoon.

BFC- post an updated screen cap of your lots.

Ragoo,

I will try as much as possible to post screenshots real time, sometimes it will have to wait until I get to my computer. I will definitely always post the trade real time via my phone as I did above.

I'd like to put another 10k in soon.

Oil is down big today on Iran but nothing has changed since the deal was announced yesterday. I think the timing is right for entry b/c I think we are finally going to see reflection of decreased US production if we aren't already.

My next 10k may be more stock, hopefully I can get my avg down to $4.85ish. If the call spreads drop I may dabble there. We'll see.

You keep commenting on supply. What of demand? I would think stocks will grow as Summer demand wanes and refinery utilization tapers for turnaround season.

$20 large in a couple weeks on a single stock. I like your moxie fat cap!

I've only bought in to VGENX as my recent O&G purchase. I'm ok spreading it around a bit.

balls, you have them

Ranger, sure demand wanes in the winter months for reasons I'm sure everyone is aware. That cyclical decrease in demand is already factored into the price of oil. It's not as if winter is going to come around and investors are all of the sudden going to realize supply decreases. Now if there is greater than expected drop in demand that could become problematic. I am still of the mindset that long term demand for oil is a straight trajectory up and history shows that to be true. Demand long term is consistent, it's supply that is the big unknown.

If I can get my next $10k in before August my dividend payout will cancel out my losses to date I've incurred purchasing the stock. That's a nice safety net...assuming it stays in place.

I'm just getting started learning about managing my own portfolio so pardon my novice questions, but how long do you have to hold a stock before you can cash in on the dividends? Does this vary fron stock to stock?

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I'm just getting started learning about managing my own portfolio so pardon my novice questions, but how long do you have to hold a stock before you can cash in on the dividends? Does this vary fron stock to stock?

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You have to be the holder of record before the ex-dividend date which is typically two days before the holder of record date assuming T+3 settlement.

You receive a dividend if you hold a stock on a certain date. What typically happens is you get the payout and the stock reduces in price by about that amount simultaneously on dividend distribution day.

In other words... The dividend offset BFC thinks he's getting doesn't really exist. He'll get his dividend and his equity will probably drop in price to offset it.

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The dividend offset BFC thinks he's getting doesn't really exist. He'll get his dividend and his equity will probably drop in price to offset it.

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ATM,

Didn't you throw a hissy fit a few days ago and claim you wouldn't return to this thread?

Sure have been posting a lot in here since.

Also jh seems to be chiming in as well...

If you guys are both so confident the stock will drop the equivalent price by the dividend payout why don't you guys buy some puts and make tons of money?

Something tells me you guys are more comfortable heckling from the stands than playing the game...

though bad trading makes me dizzy, threads like these intrigue me so I will follow along where I can and I'm not going to lay idle when a newbie has a legit question on the heels of your misinformed logic, and I see something that could be misconstrued as an arb that is non-existent... Making sure newbie is informed is all.

I have plenty of skin in the game young buck don't you worry about my portfolio.

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Also jh seems to be chiming in as well...

If you guys are both so confident the stock will drop the equivalent price by the dividend payout why don't you guys buy some puts and make tons of money?

Something tells me you guys are more comfortable heckling from the stands than playing the game...

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If you don't believe the theory then look at the historical price behavior of the stock. The drop on the ex-date has been greater than the dividend amount for at least the past four dividends.

ATM,

feel free to start a thread similar to mine with real time posts reflecting buys/sells with screenshots...I'll be the first person to monday morning QB everything you do

thought you peaked on p.2:

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That said, unsure if you are joking or not but I'm out on this thread.

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Ok fair point so I changed my mind. If I were you, I'd spend more time understanding how equities work and less time worrying about my posting patterns since you clearly don't learn from what others posters have critiqued you on nor understand how dividends work which if I were you, would worry me considering the amount of value this stock derives from its dividend payout and how much you seem to be willing to put out on it, but you seem too dense to get why so many are questioning your play here. If you want props for showing us all what you are investing in then props buddy you've got brass balls. In terms of what plays I'm making and how I'm making them... That's none of Texags' business. If that makes me less of a man than you, all good, you win.

And I'm not Monday morning qb-ing you. Monday morning qb-ing would be me bringing this up 2 years from now and saying you suck... You are 20% in on your play and I'm suggesting you think a bit more critically about your set up if your play is really a run up on oil is all. questioning strategy early on in a play is critical thinking not hindsight taunting.

I'm glad I'm following this thread!

Good luck to you fat cap. I mean I'm already pissed that vgenx is down 5% from my purchase at 54 and change.

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Also jh seems to be chiming in as well...

If you guys are both so confident the stock will drop the equivalent price by the dividend payout why don't you guys buy some puts and make tons of money?

Something tells me you guys are more comfortable heckling from the stands than playing the game...

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Because a drop in price is on ex div dates is priced in to the puts (see the implied vol on the option chain) and a dividend payout isn't a bleeping arb in the equities market.

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Ranger, sure demand wanes in the winter months for reasons I'm sure everyone is aware. That cyclical decrease in demand is already factored into the price of oil. It's not as if winter is going to come around and investors are all of the sudden going to realize supply decreases. Now if there is greater than expected drop in demand that could become problematic. I am still of the mindset that long term demand for oil is a straight trajectory up and history shows that to be true. Demand long term is consistent, it's supply that is the big unknown.

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Investors realize changes in supply/demand every Wednesday with EIA's report; hence the movement every week.

And this isn't a typical cycle for crude. Inventories are still at never before seen levels for this time of year. There may be more, "oh noes, Cushing, OK" reports following the first injection in September.

No one is claiming demand is decreasing; but many, including EIA and IEA, have trimmed their projections. I don't see production decreasing enough or a demand bailout by the build season. Which will start at never seen before levels.

Ranger, you are probably right. My time frame for my ORIG is prepared to last longer than 2015. However if there is sizable decline in US production this fall/winter I won't complain.

Please stop. We get it.

Its fine. I enjoy the elitist traders...who clearly don't have the balls to trade.

You sir are a moron. Please do keep entertaining.