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ORIG...a nice, risky oil play

65,967 Views | 398 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by The Wonderer
gvine07
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AG
After the oil peaks in '57 and '80 it took over 15 years for the price to bottom out.

When do you think oil will rebound? What do you think it will rebound to? Why are you all-in on this?

Plenty of other ways to earn high rewards...
aggie_wes
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AG
Don't put any money in until the end of Q1 2016 at the earliest.
burnt ends
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stage coach,

I've put 33.4k (~30k stock, 3.4k options) in and am sitting at ~27k today. Probably down about 19%.
burnt ends
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gvine,

I can't tell you when oil will rebound to be honest. I do feel its a good bet it starts its ascent in the next 6-12 mo. at the latest. I think we see at least $70 in the next 12 mo.

I haven't put 100% of my money in ORIG. I have a good sized 401k that is very well diversified. And my hope is the money that I have put into ORIG thus far is just the beginning. I'll be pretty pissed if I only get 33k in when its all said and done. Decent chance ORIG hasn't bottomed and if it hasn't I'll have more opportunities to buy stock/options moving forward.

Yes, there are plenty of other ways to earn high rewards. This is my bet.
ATM9000
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AG
Making flirty eyes at the 2-handle today.
cheeky
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AG
closed at $2.93

charge the paddles
pootiessock
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quote:
closed at $2.93

charge the paddles
oldarmy1
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AG
Thats a dying chart. Large block sales in June when stock broke down through support. Two big volume "goal post" bottom attempt and fail (end of July 1st week of August) shown means bottom not hit.

ATM9000
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AG
quote:
stage coach,

I've put 33.4k (~30k stock, 3.4k options) in and am sitting at ~27k today. Probably down about 19%.

It's cute that he's valuing his options at $0.34 in his calculation here still.
pootiessock
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I need an update
grd89
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AG
burnt ends, how are things going?
I've been following the stock as well and even took a small position a little over a month ago at $3.92. I'm contemplating whether I should buy some more now that the price has dropped even more or wait
MrJonMan
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AG
At sub $3 it's intriguing
aggieiniowa
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AG
I bit and have bought a little at varying prices in the low $3's and high $2's. Nothing huge but still interesting.
grd89
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AG
hit new 52-week low today
P/E ratio down to 1.11
new buying opportunity?
SquirrellyDan
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AG
Closed at 2.17 yesterday.
ATM9000
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AG
1-spot is thinking about asking orig to dance.
IrishTxAggie
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AG
Sure is quiet from the BBQ genius...
ATM9000
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AG
I'm sure he stopped out a while ago... Hope he did at least.
Bayou City
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ROFL. He lost his ASS.
IrishTxAggie
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AG
Probably still leveraging in...
Bayou City
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I wonder how he is valuing his options now... Sorry, but the guy deserved it. A lot of other good calls on the thread. ATM, any option advice?
grd89
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AG
I wonder if he's still around. He hasn't reported in a while
ATM9000
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AG
On this piece? At this point, I'd say hell no unless you've got some of the underlying of this coiled spring that just keeps coiling. Probably too much work to set up a multi-leg structure or to find buyers for this thing. Really, the only thing I MIGHT do is still attempt to set up a costless 1x2 call spread if I owned ORIG, but the vols are priced at rip your face off levels so that's probably not even possible anymore.
I had some success last month gamma scalping the 192/195 SPY Oct30 Strangle. Haven't had time lately to do anything with specific equities. Likely to not have the bandwidth to follow the market much the next week or so so I closed it today. Like selling condors and put trees around the money over the next couple months and hope to leg into some when I'm back around.
TriumphForks
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AG
Why did this take such a huge hit today?
ATM9000
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AG
Orig announced that they might mothball like a third of their fleet and also disclosed a material default on one of their contracted rigs. The second thing is why I'd avoid service companies still like the plague. Cash is going to become a big problem for many of them and likely the only way to fix is more equity dilution.
cheeky
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AG
IrishTxAggie
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AG
Brisket?? Burnt Ends?? Anything? Nope... That's what I thought...
AustinAG
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AG
Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
TriumphForks
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AG
Everything I know about trading I've learned from TexAgs. Main thing being, if a relatively unknown stock has it's own thread dedicated to it several pages deep, stay the f away. Unfortunately for me, long ago I learned that nugget of advice the hard way.
Skillet Shot
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Poor b***tard
IrishTxAggie
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AG


One month bump. Closed at $1.41. Still no signs of The Barbeque Kid.
Bayou City
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Heismanziel sock....
lead
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quote:
Everything I know about trading I've learned from TexAgs. Main thing being, if a relatively unknown stock has it's own thread dedicated to it several pages deep, stay the f away. Unfortunately for me, long ago I learned that nugget of advice the hard way.
Gnvc ! That damn Holden.
Dr. Nefario
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quote:
Heismanziel sock....


#gadgets/MaysAggie2015 sock...
pootiessock
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