redline248 said:

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While Hader is an elite closer, it is not impossible to find a good one for cheaper. Bryan Baker made something like $1.2 million this year, Cade Smith made less than $1 million. Injury is always a concern. How do you project the team in the next 2 years. Will we be in a position to need 30 or 40 saves?

It obviously depends on the return, but I'd be willing to trade him for pieces that made sense.

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Finding a guy who is playing that cheap because he is still under team control for several more years is not the same as finding a guy that cheap in FA. You aren't going to replace Hader (and unsaddle his contract) with a guy like that for $1M without giving up something else.

I'm not saying we go sign a really good guy for $1 million in Free Agency, but you don't have to spend 16 or 19, either. I have no idea what is in our farm to say if anyone can replace the production. Only that it's my opinion Hader is a good trade piece to rebuild/reload the current roster. Again, it depends on how you project '27 in terms of wins and playoff chances. Right now, if nothing changes, we aren't a contender and Hader isn't worth it

txags92 said:

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redline248 said:

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While Hader is an elite closer, it is not impossible to find a good one for cheaper. Bryan Baker made something like $1.2 million this year, Cade Smith made less than $1 million. Injury is always a concern. How do you project the team in the next 2 years. Will we be in a position to need 30 or 40 saves?

It obviously depends on the return, but I'd be willing to trade him for pieces that made sense.

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Finding a guy who is playing that cheap because he is still under team control for several more years is not the same as finding a guy that cheap in FA. You aren't going to replace Hader (and unsaddle his contract) with a guy like that for $1M without giving up something else.

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The Rays identified him as someone they could turn into something special after just being a solid piece for a handful of years, sent a comp pick, and developed him. Once he hits the market, he'll get paid.

Cade Smith was an undrafted free agent that the Guards developed. He hasn't even reached arbitration yet.

I agree with everything you said.

If we want to go that route, then a better comparison would be hoping someone like Ullola or Blueballs can step in and become a closer.

I'm tempted to say yes deal him but we saw this season that an elite closer even on a mediocre team can make a big difference.

redline248 said:

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I'm not saying we go sign a really good guy for $1 million in Free Agency, but you don't have to spend 16 or 19, either. I have no idea what is in our farm to say if anyone can replace the production. Only that it's my opinion Hader is a good trade piece to rebuild/reload the current roster. Again, it depends on how you project '27 in terms of wins and playoff chances. Right now, if nothing changes, we aren't a contender and Hader isn't worth it

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I am not arguing against trading him at all, I am just saying we need to be realistic about the return we are likely to get. I thought the 2026 deadline was when we should have done it though. I don't think there will be a 2027 season anyway, so we should be building for 2028 and beyond. You can get a lot more from a team desperate for a closer down the stretch at the trade deadline than you will get in the offseason when everybody has at least one minor league prospect (like Ullola) that they hope will turn into a closer some day.

Ag_07 said:

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I'm tempted to say yes deal him but we saw this season that an elite closer even on a mediocre team can make a big difference.

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Yep, if he plays more of this year, we have a much better record. Possibly a bye.

That being said, with "No win Joe" as a manager, I don't know how much a first round bye buys us in the playoffs,

I honestly feel like it is contingent on who the GM is and if he will have the appropriate power to make the deal. If it's just another year of Crane pulling the strings on all personnel decisions I would say keep Hader

Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

Farmer1906 said:

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Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

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1. There will be no baseball in 2027.
2. No chance in hell our GM/Owner trades Pena.
3. You list Imai on the squad. Hes going back to Japan. Actually hes already there. Hes just not coming back.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

1. There will be no baseball in 2027.
2. No chance in hell our GM/Owner trades Pena.
3. You list Imai on the squad. Hes going back to Japan. Actually hes already there. Hes just not coming back.

---

1. Ditto
2. Unless the new GM is given the keys to the franchise, Bagwell gets tied up and placed in James Talarico's flu closet in Ohio Dallas Austin, and Crane leaves for a 2-year sabbatical with no internet access, Ditto.
3. Don't care how it happens, but it needs to happen that way.
4. I hate still seeing Alvarez locked in at DH and Altuve locked in at 2B. But I am not sure what the answer is because I don't want to trade either one. If you put a gun to my head, I would listen to offers on Alvarez in a full rebuild scenario, but it would have to be the kind of offer that breaks the internet for a month to get me to say yes.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

1. There will be no baseball in 2027.
2. No chance in hell our GM/Owner trades Pena.
3. You list Imai on the squad. Hes going back to Japan. Actually hes already there. Hes just not coming back.

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1. It's no fun if you don't assume there is a chance at a season.
2. I thought the same thing until they traded away Tucker.
3. Imai has about 36,000,000 reasons to come back this year and next. You could take the top 5 paid players in Japan, combine them, and they'd still make less than Imai next year.

Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

1. There will be no baseball in 2027.
2. No chance in hell our GM/Owner trades Pena.
3. You list Imai on the squad. Hes going back to Japan. Actually hes already there. Hes just not coming back.

---

1. It's no fun if you don't assume there is a chance at a season.
2. I thought the same thing until they traded away Tucker.
3. Imai has about 36,000,000 reasons to come back this year and next. You could take the top 5 paid players in Japan, combine them, and they'd still make less than Imai next year.

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1. Yeah. I get it. I wish I saw a different path here.
2. That was a competent (?) actual GM making an impartial decision. Not an idiot who has a lot of money and is probably emotionally invested.
3. Makes you wonder then why they didn't play him more down the stretch when they could have. Even should have.

Farmer1906 said:

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Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

Not sure eating half of Walkers salary would be a salary dump, but the return would likely not help the cause in the near future (lower level prospect with a loud tool and a few questions).

Yeah, not relevant to next year's discussion. No one's taking on all $20 million, so your model holds.

Farmer1906 said:

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Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

Does that do enough in the OF, or are you banking on a Cam progression?

Marvin said:

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Farmer1906 said:

---

Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

Does that do enough in the OF, or are you banking on a Cam progression?

---

Depends on what you think we have coming up from the minor leagues. I am not sold on the Mathews/Spence combo in CF, and Cam needs to show more consistency before I am willing to pencil him in for every day at RF.

txags92 said:

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Marvin said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

Does that do enough in the OF, or are you banking on a Cam progression?

---

Depends on what you think we have coming up from the minor leagues. I am not sold on the Mathews/Spence combo in CF, and Cam needs to show more consistency before I am willing to pencil him in for every day at RF.

---

Does it do enough? Not really. It shifts the production from SS to LF because Pena and Suzuki have been similar offensively. But this tries to stay competitive and build up momentum long-term, with a handful of prospects being added to the mix while still maintaining an 80-90 win team.

I think the goal should be not to suck while still building the farm, so in 2029-30 you can start the new Astros core. Some combination: Alvarez(18), Neyens(19), Fermin(17), Hughes(21), Schiavone (23-will be earlier), and the theoretical prospects from selling Pena, Hader, and whoever else along the way. Spend money to stay somewhat competitive so we can somewhat enjoy prime Yordan and twilight Altuve.

Marvin said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Let's play GM for a minute.

Expected 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll: 225 M
Estimated 2027 Luxury Tax Threshold: 247 M

Make some more room.

• Trade Pena for mostly prospects and bullpen help (+9 M of space)
• Trade Walker as a pure salary dump, but pay for 1/2 (+10 M of space)
• Trade Hader for a prospect and bullpen help (+14 M of space)

55 M to play with.

To replace Pena's offense, sign Seiya Suzuki: 4/120 M (30 M) - Spotrac Market Value plus 1 additional year at 15 M for age 36 season
To fix the Rotation, sign Michael King: 5/150 (25 M) - Spotrac Market Value

Potential 2027
Lineup
1. Paredes - 1B
2. Alvarez - DH
3. Suzuki - LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Altuve - 2B
6. Diaz - C
7. Smith - RF
8. Spence/Matthews - CF
9. Allen - SS

Rotation
1. Brown
2. King
3. Lambert
4. Wesneski
5. Javier, Imai, Walter

This assumes no one in the Hader & Pena trades impacts the rotation or lineup, but ideally you get pieces you believe you can develop and use in the bullpen right away.

Is this a 100 win team? No, but there is no reason why it cannot win the West with a mid 80s win total. The offense should be similar (good, not great), and the rotation is better. AND you helped fix the farm.

Now point holes as to why its stupid and will never work.

---

Does that do enough in the OF, or are you banking on a Cam progression?

---

According to Cot's Contracts we're somewhere around the $211-$215 range for 2027. IMO the best path forward to be competitive next year is

1 - DFA (or trade) Trammel, Jake, Sousa, etc as well as any other player in that range. Trammel and Meyers alone are ~ $5 mil is savings
2 - Move Paredes to 1b, Correa at 3b & trade Walker and his $20m. Hopefully someone will eat a good chunk of his contract. That's a TBD
3 - Find a way to convince Hader to be open to a trade. That's another $19m and should fetch a great return.

If we can pull that off, that would be us somewhere around the $180m in payroll and some flexibilty to go sign some combination of at least 1 serviceable OF, a 2nd or 3rd starter, shore up the bullpen with 2-3 other guys and sign some sort of utility guy. It's not a GREAT solution but IMO that's the best option we have to be competitive until some help can come from the minors in 2 years or so.

Don't see it happening but if somehow Imai could opt out.....now we're talking!

Seriously, just take the money and run Rob. Go off into that sunset and enjoy the rest of your days, on the beach, with a nice romance novel and chianti.

RED AG 98 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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I absolutely hate this idea... Rob is ruining baseball

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I absolutely hate this idea
I absolutely hate this commissioner

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I don't hate it

Modern day baseball is boring with the game being so strikeout and home run dominant.

time to bring back the extra base hits

Mathguy64 said:

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That OF thing is so ****ing stupid. Baseball isn't meant for defenders to stand in a spot. What's next? SS on a spot?

Manfred can chug bleach.

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Up next... Every other pitch, the pitcher has to throw a fastball right down the middle under 90mph. Got to get that offense up

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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That OF thing is so ****ing stupid. Baseball isn't meant for defenders to stand in a spot. What's next? SS on a spot?

Manfred can chug bleach.

---

Up next... Every other pitch, the pitcher has to throw a fastball right down the middle under 90mph. Got to get that offense up

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Designated circles, like the pitcher in softball, for all 9 positions.

RED AG 98 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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That OF thing is so ****ing stupid. Baseball isn't meant for defenders to stand in a spot. What's next? SS on a spot?

Manfred can chug bleach.

---

Up next... Every other pitch, the pitcher has to throw a fastball right down the middle under 90mph. Got to get that offense up

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Designated circles, like the pitcher in softball, for all 9 positions.

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Wait. Maybe that idiot Barrosa was on to something. Throw it to the mound and the play is dead. Just like softball.

How about all the fielders have to lay down and can't move until the pitch is thrown?

May we never be so blessed to see that again

Brewers are such a complete team.

This is a trade I a am willing to make. Go Claude!