This roster seems pretty set now:

C - Garver, Heim - big upgrade
IF - Lowe, Semien, Seager, Ibanez; Culbertson, Solak - big upgrade
OF - Garcia, K. Calhoun, Miller; White(?), W. Calhoun (DH) - upgrade

SP - Gray, Perez, Dunning, Hearn, Howard

RP - Martin, Richards, Sborz, Allard, Santana, Abreu, Bush (8), Barlow (9).

Two more RPs allowed since roster is at 28 for now. I'd rather see Spencer Patton starting in the minors. Brock Burke? Is John King healthy? When is Le Clerc back?

wbt5845 said:

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This roster seems pretty set now:

C - Garver, Heim - big upgrade
IF - Lowe, Semien, Seager, Ibanez; Culbertson, Solak - big upgrade
OF - Garcia, K. Calhoun, Miller; White(?), W. Calhoun (DH) - upgrade

SP - Gray, Perez, Running, Hearn, Howard

RP - Martin, Richards, Sborz, Allard, Santana, Abreu, Bush (8), Barlow (9).

Two more RPs allowed since roster is at 28 for now. I'd rather see Spencer Patton starting in the minors. Brock Burke? Is John King healthy? When is Le Clerc back?

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I would've preferred seeing the outfield be upgraded a bit more, but I guess the rangers wanted to give people like Willie Calhoun and white 1 more shot before bringing in a big bat. Good luck to those guys this year.

I'm looking forward to what Garcia can do with some better hitters around him. He tailed off after Gallo was traded since teams could just pick around him.

How about this line up?

Miller
Semien
Seager
Garcia
Garver
K Calhoun
Lowe
w Calhoun
Ibanez

wbt5845 said:

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I'm looking forward to what Garcia can do with some better hitters around him. He tailed off after Gallo was traded since teams could just pick around him.

How about this line up?

Miller
Semien
Seager
Garcia
Garver
K Calhoun
Lowe
w Calhoun
Ibanez

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Very similar to today's batting order which I think will be our go to:

Miller
Semien
Seager
Garver
Lowe
Garcia
K Calhoun
W Calhoun
Ibanez

I like this lineup a lot!

There been any news or whispers about the crapshow that is Bally sports getting resolved?

PatAg said:

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There been any news or whispers about the crapshow that is Bally sports getting resolved?

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Haha nope. It's now been almost 2 years with no local sports on tv for those that have a streaming service or DISH.

Bally Sports (Sinclair) talked like they would have their own streaming service you could purchase by now, but it probably won't be until later this summer if at all. I can't imagine how much money they have lost over the past 2 years and how they thought this was a good idea.

ESPN Power Rankings and Season Preview

Quote:

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21. Texas Rangers

Projected record: 69-83 (3.6% playoff odds)

If everything goes right ... Corey Seager and Marcus Semien both start the All-Star Game and finish in the top five of the MVP voting. Nathaniel Lowe adds more loft to his swing and becomes a 30-homer dude. We get first-half Adolis Garcia (.840 OPS) instead of second-half Adolis Garcia (.627 OPS). Joe Barlow saves 40 games, and the patchwork rotation somehow isn't awful. The Rangers win a wild card. -- Schoenfield

Weakness that could stop them: Despite the offseason signing of Jon Gray, the Rangers' rotation looks bad on every level. Gray should be a fixture and maybe he and Dane Dunning can form a one-two punch if the younger Dunning can ramp up his workload. Texas' roster is also a work in progress, but the splurges of the offseason should result in immediate improvement. The problem: For Texas to move into the fringe of wild-card contention, it's the rotation that's going to have to overachieve in terms of both per-rata performance and innings count. -- Doolittle

Most likely 2022 award winner: Corey Seager landed the bigger contract (10 years, $325 million), but Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million himself) has nearly doubled his fWAR over the past three years, while combining 85 homers with 29 stolen bases and an .854 OPS. Now, with Seager at short, Semien is a long-term second baseman -- and that's his better position. From 2019 to 2020, Semien was a minus-12 at shortstop, according to outs above average, fifth worst in the majors. In 2021, he was plus-7 at second base, sixth best. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Jon Gray wins a career-high 15 games, strikes out 200 batters for the first time, finishes with an ERA under 3.25 and makes the All-Star team. -- Schoenfield

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Thoughts?

I don't see much I disagree with as far as the blurbs. But man, I sure hope that projected record isn't accurate.

The rotation and bullpen are still a ways away from being good IMO. I would love to be wrong but I think that more than anything is going to hold us back

I know its still spring training, but Dunning doesnt look like a piece of the rotation today. Sitting @ 50 pitches with 1 out top of 2.

I think the floor is 87 Wins.

Adolis has a better 2nd half in 2021 if we don't trade away Gallo.

If you take out Gibson's 13GS, 113.0 IP, 36 ER, you are left with 1311 IP and 722 ER=> 4.95 ERA in 149 GS.

We've swapped
Gibson (13GS, 2.87, 113 IP) for Jon Gray (4.59 ERA).
Lyles (30 GS, 5.15, 180.0 IP) for Martin Perez (4.74 ERA)

Hearn (11 GS, 4.66, 104.1 IP) and Dunning (25 GS, 4.51, 117.2 IP) should be better. Hopefully no worse.

87 wins would put us squarely in the wild card mix. That would be very interesting and I'd say that is probably one year ahead of schedule. No complaints about that.

But man, 87 wins as the floor? Are the Rangers really 27 games better than last season?

Mr Gigem said:

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Are the Rangers really 27 games better than last season?

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MINIMUM!

I believe we were 18-21 in 1 run games. If we flip that to 25-14, we're +7
Texas had 31 Saves out 51 Save Opps. Let's pretend we have a Closer (I know we don't) and get 10 more saves out of that.

We were 35-55 (.389) and 25-47 (.347) for 1st and 2nd half, respectively. If we're in the hunt at the ASB, we add an 8th Inning guy, a SP, an OF, and magic ensues.

IMO, it will come down to RP, which is always questionable for a team. If we can get some innings out of the rotation and not chew up our RP early, we get a better chance to keep the RPs in their roles. Most of our SP seem to be inning eaters.

I think pushing for .500 would be tremendous considering where we were. I don't think we have the arms to do much more than that

87 is the ceiling. 77 is the floor.

JMO

rbtexan said:

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87 is the ceiling. 77 is the floor.

JMO

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This is around what I was thinking.

I empathize with y'alls optimism but I think 75 is the ceiling. This pitching staff is going to get roughed up. I think we'll hava workable staff by the end of the season and I think our offense will keep us in some games. 75 wins is still 15 more than last year. I'd be ok with 75 wins and ecstatic with 80+ wins.

The big pitching question mark IMHO is the starters, not the bullpen.

There are enough decent pieces in that bullpen to perform - IF they don't get exposed too much. But they probably will.

Of course, that's because NOW is the time to find out which young arms are gonna perform. First up are Howard, Hearn and Dunning. Right behind them, next to step up, are Allard, Otto, Alexy, Latz, Winn.

Speaking of old Rangers who drove us nutty:

Odor - signed with the Orioles for the MLB minimum. He batted .130 in the spring and will likely be their starting 2B.

Shin-Soo Choo - designated hitter for the SSG Landers of the KBO League.

Elvis Andrus - Still with the A's - batted .250 in the spring.

Robinson Chirinos - Also with the Orioles - batted .200 in the spring. Will be their starting catcher.

damn rangers .....got kicked from April 11th to october..... thanks for nothing

I read once that one run games are essentially a coin toss on wins and losses. So from year to year, flipping the previous year's record in one run games is the safest bet.

wbt5845 said:

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I read once that one run games are essentially a coin toss on wins and losses. So from year to year, flipping the previous year's record in one run games is the safest bet.

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Not sure if serious meme

Makes sense to me. Although I did get a C in the probability course I took 20 years ago

Yesterday I flipped a coin and it landed on heads 8 times out of 10.

So tomorrow, the most likely result is it landing on tails 8 times out of 10?

By laws of probability…yes, that outcome has the highest likelihood and the more sample size you start to accumulate, it will continue to get closer to 50/50.

investorAg83 said:

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By laws of probability…yes, that outcome has the highest likelihood and the more sample size you start to accumulate, it will continue to get closer to 50/50.

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These are completely separate events. If you believe how any given team does in 1-run games is a coin-flip, then the best projection for how a team will do in 1-run games is 50/50.

Proposition Joe said:

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investorAg83 said:

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By laws of probability…yes, that outcome has the highest likelihood and the more sample size you start to accumulate, it will continue to get closer to 50/50.

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These are completely separate events.

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Correct. And given enough sample size, it will get closer and closer to 50/50.

Last 6 season 1 run records: 18-21, 7-6, 25-21, 12-19, 13-24, 36-11. That accumulates to 111-102. I could keep going back…

Proposition Joe said:

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investorAg83 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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investorAg83 said:

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By laws of probability…yes, that outcome has the highest likelihood and the more sample size you start to accumulate, it will continue to get closer to 50/50.

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These are completely separate events.

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Correct. And given enough sample size, it will get closer and closer to 50/50.

Last 6 season 1 run records: 18-21, 7-6, 25-21, 12-19, 13-24, 36-11. That accumulates to 111-102. I could keep going back…

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But last season's events have zero bearing on this season's events.

So saying the best bet on a 50% proposition this year is to flip the previous year's outcome is completely erroneous.

It's equivalent to thinking red is "due" on roulette because it's been black 3 times in a row.

Over a infinite amount of times yes the coin flip should skew closer and closer to 50/50, but that doesn't change the probability of the next flip.

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Yep, things tend toward the mean over a large (infinite) timeframe.

And it's not even because things "even out" (that a run of 10 heads will see a run of 10 tails later).

Let's say you have a perfectly fair coin that starts off with 10 heads and then any set of flips after that is perfectly 50/50.

Proportion of heads after:
10 flips - 10/10= 100%
100 flips - 55/100= 55%
1000 flips - 505/1000=50.5%
10000 flips 5005/10000=50.05%

All that to say you don't make up for a run of bad luck with a run of good luck...the bad luck just gets washed out by more data.

Meanwhile, Hearn gives up 3 in 3.0 IP in his final tune up

Eh. Looks better now that the Rangers are up 5-3