***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

bearkatag15
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag_07 said:

Bobcat-Ag said:

astros4545 said:

Bregman's BABIP
Does that mean he will get better when the BABIP averages out?

Typically 30% of balls in play result in hits (or a BABIP of .300)

Anything too far under .300 is considered running into bad luck while anything way over .300 is considered getting lucky.

And guess who is the luckiest MFer on the team right now

Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So does Luhnow pump that up during the trade discussions he's having with all these teams calling about White?
CSWendt
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I've always disagreed with the logic of BABIP being an indicator of luck. That would assume all guys hit the ball in play at the same velocity, launch angle, etc. We would expect players who hit the ball harder to typically have a higher BABIP, while players who hit it softly will have a lower BABIP. I've never really understood how we always expect it to be .300 if it weren't for luck.
ChAg1799
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag_07 said:

So does Luhnow pump that up during the trade discussions he's having with all these teams calling about White?


I'd field a call for Stroman... White and a lower level Minor pitcher for Marcus Stroman...
Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's gonna take a lot more than a fringe rosterable player with no defensive position and a lotto ticket prospect to get Stroman.

Maybe not a Tucker or Whitley type but a Corbin Martin/J.B. Bukauskas type and some decent mid-level prospects. Think about what we gave up for Cole and I think that's about what it would take to land Stroman.

Although it is TOR and they took Ken Giles off our hands so maybe you're not too far off.
Beat40
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ag_07 said:

Bobcat-Ag said:

astros4545 said:

Bregman's BABIP
Does that mean he will get better when the BABIP averages out?

Typically 30% of balls in play result in hits (or a BABIP of .300)

Anything too far under .300 is considered running into bad luck while anything way over .300 is considered getting lucky.

**At least that's how I've always looked at BABIP. Someone else who knows more may elaborate but I think that's the jist of it


BABIP isn't solely an indicator of luck. It Is a metric to sort good hitter from bad hitters. It's also used for pitchers to show how well the defense is turning balls in play into outs.

Luck is one of a few different factors into BABIP. The most proper way to look at it is by looking at a players career BABIP first, and then what they are doing in the current season.

Bearkat provided Bregman's: His BABIP in his first 3 seasons have been .317, .311 and .289. To this point in his career, he's shown to be an above average hitter.

Now you look a this year and his BABIP is .252. It's obviously an outlier in his career so far. It could be that much lower because of how defenses are playing him in combination with bad luck. So you could absolutely say he's had some bad luck this year, which he probably has. We also see defenses shifting him more as well.

The thought is Bregman might not get back to his career BABIP this year, but should trend to his career BABIP this year for the remainder of he season of being an above average hitter.

Farmer or Irish Pete can add more or correct me if I am wrong. That's just my understanding of the metric.
ChAg1799
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Cole is a far better pitcher than Stroman.... I hope it's not what we had to give up for Cole...
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
the Astros will face Detroit's (18-20) #1 starter tonight --- Boyd.

3 earned runs is the most he's given up in any of his 8 starts.

only allowed 3 home runs in 50 innings
Buck Compton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
W said:

the Astros will face Detroit's (18-20) #1 starter tonight --- Boyd.

3 earned runs is the most he's given up in any of his 8 starts.

only allowed 3 home runs in 50 innings
He's having a good year so far. He had a few good games (against NYY and CLE). His game against Boston was in a double-header.

He also has starts against LAA, TOR, KCR, and CWS. Hardly world-beaters.

That being said, he pitches efficiently and has pitched at least 6.0 IP in every start since his opener. My guess for tonight is 6 innings for him, 1-2 runs, then we score another 2-3 on their bullpen. I think we start sluggish on our first day on the road. Need Peacock to be sharp.
bearkatag15
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
W said:

the Astros will face Detroit's (18-20) #1 starter tonight --- Boyd.

3 earned runs is the most he's given up in any of his 8 starts.

only allowed 3 home runs in 50 innings
Cheerios has 3 career hits vs Boyd in 7 ABs. 2 of those hits were home runs.
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
CSWendt said:

I've always disagreed with the logic of BABIP being an indicator of luck. That would assume all guys hit the ball in play at the same velocity, launch angle, etc. We would expect players who hit the ball harder to typically have a higher BABIP, while players who hit it softly will have a lower BABIP. I've never really understood how we always expect it to be .300 if it weren't for luck.


BABIP Alone isn't the best way to determine luck. You'd need to combine it with how hard you hit it and where you're hitting it.

xwOBA does a good job at that. Tyler White is 53rd in the league in difference between expected weighted on base vs actual weighted in base. He's fairly lucky. Our luckiest players by far is Chirinos & Jake (3rd and 6th). So if we're buying stock for the next 3/4s of the season I'm selling all 3 and Brantley too. Not that i think Brantley will be bad, I don't think he can keep up his MVP level production.
bearkatag15
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
DVC2010
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Really well said.
MelvinUdall
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I know it has been said a lot on this thread, but count me in as someone that also believes the Brantley signing was huge in comparison to what other players were paid.
dshedd14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
FanSided-House of Houston Contributor
http://houseofhouston.com/author/dshedd/
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Farmer1906 said:

CSWendt said:

I've always disagreed with the logic of BABIP being an indicator of luck. That would assume all guys hit the ball in play at the same velocity, launch angle, etc. We would expect players who hit the ball harder to typically have a higher BABIP, while players who hit it softly will have a lower BABIP. I've never really understood how we always expect it to be .300 if it weren't for luck.


BABIP Alone isn't the best way to determine luck. You'd need to combine it with how hard you hit it and where you're hitting it.

xwOBA does a good job at that. Tyler White is 53rd in the league in difference between expected weighted on base vs actual weighted in base. He's fairly lucky. Our luckiest players by far is Chirinos & Jake (3rd and 6th). So if we're buying stock for the next 3/4s of the season I'm selling all 3 and Brantley too. Not that i think Brantley will be bad, I don't think he can keep up his MVP level production.


I like when you youngsters post stuff like that
dlance
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
astros4545 said:

Wait

How can a BABIP be lower than ones total batting average?

Does not make sense
BA:
38 for 137 = .277

BABIP:
(38H - 12HR) / (137AB - 26K - 12HR + 4SAC)
26/103 = .252

He leads the league in sac flies at the moment. That lowers your BABIP.
Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ChAg1799 said:

Cole is a far better pitcher than Stroman.... I hope it's not what we had to give up for Cole...


Far better? I don't know. I think Cole is better no doubt but I'm not sure I'd say far better. Stroman is pretty dang good.

But I think Stroman can be absolutely elite here with Strom and this staff. A lot like what has happened to Cole.
JABQ04
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Springer got out. What a bum.
shano0603
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
woooooooooow
shano0603
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Is no one else watching?
dlance
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Watching...but helping kids with homework, cooking supper, and brother crashing at the house.
newsjunkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm here
astros4545
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
JABQ04 said:

Springer got out. What a bum.


Springer 'Robbin Leadoff' Dingers
Poke_the_Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
There ya go
Kashchei
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Diaz mio!
bearkatag15
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Diaz is really coming around
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'm here. Been mowing the yard and starting a fire for fajitas. Came in just in time to see Daz launch his missile.
newsjunkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Did they just call that a Cuban missile? LOL
bullard21k
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Churro sticks
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Cheerios!!
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yep.
newsjunkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And here's to you, Mr Robinson!!!!
astros4545
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ball was smoked oppo
shano0603
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
OH. Get past the murderers row in the first part of the lineup. Then let the Diaz, White and Chirinos combo take you for 3 runs.
Page 205 of 659
 
×
Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.