Ag_07 said:
Bobcat-Ag said:
astros4545 said:
Bregman's BABIP
Does that mean he will get better when the BABIP averages out?
Typically 30% of balls in play result in hits (or a BABIP of .300)
Anything too far under .300 is considered running into bad luck while anything way over .300 is considered getting lucky.
**At least that's how I've always looked at BABIP. Someone else who knows more may elaborate but I think that's the jist of it
BABIP isn't solely an indicator of luck. It Is a metric to sort good hitter from bad hitters. It's also used for pitchers to show how well the defense is turning balls in play into outs.
Luck is one of a few different factors into BABIP. The most proper way to look at it is by looking at a players career BABIP first, and then what they are doing in the current season.
Bearkat provided Bregman's: His BABIP in his first 3 seasons have been .317, .311 and .289. To this point in his career, he's shown to be an above average hitter.
Now you look a this year and his BABIP is .252. It's obviously an outlier in his career so far. It could be that much lower because of how defenses are playing him in combination with bad luck. So you could absolutely say he's had some bad luck this year, which he probably has. We also see defenses shifting him more as well.
The thought is Bregman might not get back to his career BABIP this year, but should trend to his career BABIP this year for the remainder of he season of being an above average hitter.
Farmer or Irish Pete can add more or correct me if I am wrong. That's just my understanding of the metric.