***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

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mathguy86
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This just in. The Angels, having saddled themselves with horrifically expensive contracts to old players and injured players, have chosen to fire the guy responsible for playing them.

Don't get me wrong, Ausmus is not a good manager. But he inherited a financial and roster nightmare. At some point the front office needs to look in the mirror. Not that I'm complaining mind you. A dumb front office is easy picking on the field and free wins are nice.
Farmer1906
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mathguy86 said:

This just in. The Angels, having saddled themselves with horrifically expensive contracts to old players and injured players, have chosen to fire the guy responsible for playing them.

Don't get me wrong, Ausmus is not a good manager. But he inherited a financial and roster nightmare. At some point the front office needs to look in the mirror. Not that I'm complaining mind you. A dumb front office is easy picking on the field and free wins are nice.
59 M to Pujols over the next two years
12.6 M to Cozart for next year
72 M to Upton over the next three years

On the flip side, they have zero invested in pitching. Not a single starting or bullpen guy is making any real money.
Farmer1906
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Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500
HossAg
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I'm very hesitant to call a guy lucky based on one stat category with the stretch of years he's had lately. Maybe his BABIP is so low because he got unlucky with the amount of HR he gave up? Idk. I get that it's a useful tool, but I prefer to just look at the hard numbers posted and evaluate them on the season they had and not try to guess which guy was more lucky.
Farmer1906
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HossAg said:

I'm very hesitant to call a guy lucky based on one stat category with the stretch of years he's had lately. Maybe his BABIP is so low because he got unlucky with the amount of HR he gave up? Idk. I get that it's a useful tool, but I prefer to just look at the hard numbers posted and evaluate them on the season they had and not try to guess which guy was more lucky.
Are we willing to call ERA a hard number? There is a lot of judgment in errors. Errors are a pretty poor indicator of defense too.
Bregxit
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astros4545 said:

Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Farmer1906 said:

So I've looked at the #s and I think I'm ready to cast my Cy Young vote...

And the winner is... Gerrit Cole.

Ultimately, what swung my vote is limited balls being hit (more K%) and the type of contact once it was put in play (lower hard hit%, higher soft hit%). This led to JV allowing all those HRs and why Cole has the clear edge in FIP & xFIP. Its much closer, but Cole also has the edge in xwOBA too.


Imo the numbers are so close I'm in favor of a Co-Cy award


That's fine that you can't turn in a ballot with co Cys. The odds of them have the same number of votes (point total?) is extremely small.
Given that they should be 1/2 on every ballot (if not then that voter should be drawn and quartered), I'd say there is a decent chance of it happening. Not likely, but very possible. Just need it to split 15 to 15. Maybe they'll collude.


Is there only 30 voters? If so, much better chance of co-cys than I thought

They should be 1-2 on every ballot


Yes 30 voters for MVP, CY, ROY and MOY.
tjholley16
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I'd personally vote for Cole.


VERLANDER / COLE
Wins 21 / 20
Hits Allowed 138 / 142
Earned Runs 65 / 59
Strikeouts 300 / 316
Walks 42 / 46
ERA 2.62 / 2.50
WHIP 0.81 / 0.89
No-Hitter 1 / 0
Farmer1906
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Bregxit said:

astros4545 said:

Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Farmer1906 said:

So I've looked at the #s and I think I'm ready to cast my Cy Young vote...

And the winner is... Gerrit Cole.

Ultimately, what swung my vote is limited balls being hit (more K%) and the type of contact once it was put in play (lower hard hit%, higher soft hit%). This led to JV allowing all those HRs and why Cole has the clear edge in FIP & xFIP. Its much closer, but Cole also has the edge in xwOBA too.


Imo the numbers are so close I'm in favor of a Co-Cy award


That's fine that you can't turn in a ballot with co Cys. The odds of them have the same number of votes (point total?) is extremely small.
Given that they should be 1/2 on every ballot (if not then that voter should be drawn and quartered), I'd say there is a decent chance of it happening. Not likely, but very possible. Just need it to split 15 to 15. Maybe they'll collude.


Is there only 30 voters? If so, much better chance of co-cys than I thought

They should be 1-2 on every ballot


Based on everything I can find I believe so.
I don't trust the bias in the voters. Someone is going to sneak in an steal a first or second-place vote.
willie wonka
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Being saddled with Pujols the next two years is tough. Every time he gets a hit it looks like he's taking a victory lap.
Farmer1906
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willie wonka said:

Being saddled with Pujols the next two years is tough. Every time he gets a hit it looks like he's taking a victory lap.
38 and 39-year-old Pujols's OPS+ is higher than Reddick's this year.
Teddy Perkins
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Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500

Mack has been looking for, and got at least one book to give +250 on the Stros.

Bregxit
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Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

astros4545 said:

Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Farmer1906 said:

So I've looked at the #s and I think I'm ready to cast my Cy Young vote...

And the winner is... Gerrit Cole.

Ultimately, what swung my vote is limited balls being hit (more K%) and the type of contact once it was put in play (lower hard hit%, higher soft hit%). This led to JV allowing all those HRs and why Cole has the clear edge in FIP & xFIP. Its much closer, but Cole also has the edge in xwOBA too.


Imo the numbers are so close I'm in favor of a Co-Cy award


That's fine that you can't turn in a ballot with co Cys. The odds of them have the same number of votes (point total?) is extremely small.
Given that they should be 1/2 on every ballot (if not then that voter should be drawn and quartered), I'd say there is a decent chance of it happening. Not likely, but very possible. Just need it to split 15 to 15. Maybe they'll collude.


Is there only 30 voters? If so, much better chance of co-cys than I thought

They should be 1-2 on every ballot


Based on everything I can find I believe so.
I don't trust the bias in the voters. Someone is going to sneak in an steal a first or second-place vote.


I agree and while I feel if someone did that they should be dropped from a supply plane over Antarctica, they'd probably relish in the attention.

I do hope the voters all put in legit ballots. There is no one else remotely close to deserving of 1st and 2nd votes but JV and Cole.
HossAg
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I agree with you there. With all of these stats, there is a certain degree of variability involved. I'll have to go home and look through each stat again and re-assess my opinion on it. My point is, I don't think there's any one stat you can look to for a completely unbiased assessment of the pitcher. I agree with most of your points, though.
mathguy86
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tjholley16 said:

I'd personally vote for Cole.

Most stats are equal, and he now has the all time single season strikeout record. To me that is more impressive than a no-hitter because a couple or a few of those happen every season


VERLANDER / COLE
Wins 21 20
Hits Allowed 138 142
Earned Runs 65 59
Strikeouts 300 316
Walks 42 46
ERA 2.62 2.50
WHIP 0.81 0.89
No-Hitter 1 0
Huh? Cole's 326 is the Astros career leader but its not even top 10 all time.
Bregxit
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tjholley16 said:

I'd personally vote for Cole.

Most stats are equal, and he now has the all time single season strikeout record. To me that is more impressive than a no-hitter because a couple or a few of those happen every season


VERLANDER / COLE
Wins 21 / 20
Hits Allowed 138 / 142
Earned Runs 65 / 59
Strikeouts 300 / 316 (MLB ALL TIME RECORD)
Walks 42 / 46
ERA 2.62 / 2.50
WHIP 0.81 / 0.89
No-Hitter 1 / 0


Single season strikeout record for the Astros. Not even close for MLB. And he had 326, not 316.
Bregxit
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Love ya big guy
Farmer1906
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HossAg said:

I agree with you there. With all of these stats, there is a certain degree of variability involved. I'll have to go home and look through each stat again and re-assess my opinion on it. My point is, I don't think there's any one stat you can look to for a completely unbiased assessment of the pitcher. I agree with most of your points, though.
Agreed. There is no single stat that tells the whole story. But there are better stats than others. I put pretty much no value in W/L or Saves.
mathguy86
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Bregxit said:

326
fat fingers
Marvin
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bearkatag15 said:



Never, ever wish unemployment on a person... but... Ausmus will come out all right, his family definitely won't starve, and he will get another opportunity fairly quickly.

Beyond that, I though he was a bit of an ass on more than one occasion.
Marvin
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Marvin said:

bearkatag15 said:



Never, ever wish unemployment on a person... but... Ausmus will come out all right, his family definitely won't starve, and he will get another opportunity fairly quickly.

Beyond that, I though he was a bit of an ass on more than one occasion.

Well, except for Sumlin. And Sherman. Fran, too. Pretty sure I called for it in RC's last couple of years... maybe I should edit that previous post. "Aggie football coaches excluded...", haha.
CFTXAG10
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bearkatag15 said:




#Justice4Jake
BMX Bandit
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Farmer1906 said:

bearkatag15 said:

Farmer1906 said:

My inside guy at the 'stros said Friday at 1 and Saturday at 8. I have no idea how reliable it is, but there you go.
If Saturday at 8 then he is saying Yankees play the early game instead of primetime. That's hard to believe.
Primetime on Saturday may mean less. The CBS game of the week for the SEC is at 230.


That is CBS "prime time" spot because they usually don't have a game they are showing at night.

When I do have a night game, they put the one higher expected ratings at night
TREX01
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Its shaping up just like 2017 when teams fired their managers after we dispatched them.
bearkatag15
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Farmer1906 said:

My inside guy at the 'stros said Friday at 1 and Saturday at 8. I have no idea how reliable it is, but there you go.
2 different people posted on reddit the same times with one of their sources being someone on the grounds crew:





BMX Bandit
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Fish pond manager?
willie wonka
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Sounds as definitive as the Fish Pond Maintainer
willie wonka
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Farmer1906 said:

willie wonka said:

Being saddled with Pujols the next two years is tough. Every time he gets a hit it looks like he's taking a victory lap.
38 and 39-year-old Pujols's OPS+ is higher than Reddick's this year.
Yeah, and we ain't paying Reddick $59m in the next two years either.
JRC0811
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Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500

Something about being the favorite doesn't sit well with me... I like being the underdog.
Farmer1906
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Here is a fun stat for the Tucker vs Reddick argument.

Outs Above Average on the Year
Reddick - 0
Tucker - 2

So even though his opportunities were a fraction of Reddick's, he still found a way to be above average
Farmer1906
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JRC0811 said:

Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500

Something about being the favorite doesn't sit well with me... I like being the underdog.
We've been the favorite or close to it since mid 2017.
mathguy86
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Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500

If I were inclined to make a bet (and I'm not), the Nats at +1800 would be an intriguing bet. That pitching staff 1,2,3 is just about as good as ours. Not as good, but its not too bad.
JRC0811
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Farmer1906 said:

JRC0811 said:

Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

Here is a full rundown of 2019 World Series odds as we await the start of the Wild Card round this week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Astros: +200
Los Angeles Dodgers: +275
New York Yankees: +400
Atlanta Braves: +750
Minnesota Twins: +1400
St. Louis Cardinals: +1600
Oakland Athletics: +1800
Washington Nationals: +1800
Tampa Bay Rays: +2200
Milwaukee Brewers: +2500

Something about being the favorite doesn't sit well with me... I like being the underdog.
We've been the favorite or close to it since mid 2017.
I know, I know... It's my BAS kicking in.

In 2017 I still thought of us at the underdog since we were going against NY, BOS, and LA. That we won made it all the more sweeter.
Buck Compton
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Farmer1906 said:

Here is a fun stat for the Tucker vs Reddick argument.

Outs Above Average on the Year
Reddick - 0
Tucker - 2

So even though his opportunities were a fraction of Reddick's, he still found a way to be above average

Do we want to open up the Pandora's box of defensive stats and how difficult it is for them to measure impact of starting position, ballpark dimensions, wind, and preventative impact of things like not running on an arm? Cause if so, sure, let's go down the defensive rabbit hole.
CFTXAG10
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Good on Correa.



bearkatag15
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JV didn't win any pitcher of the month awards