I get that they have an article quota and it's easy just to bash, but it amazes me how many writers don't understand the situation.

Spending money in the off-season to sign mileage-d arms to multiyear deals to chase WC2 just makes no sense. It's a panic move that loses sight of the long-term goal. If it were to chase a division or even to be the unquestioned WC1 front-runner, OK maybe. But WC2? You can twiddle your thumbs and see what you got and still make a move to get it in July at the deadline.

This idea that we had any chance of putting together a division contender this year is just stupid. Astros tanked for 4 years and don't have to pay any of the studs they got from doing that until the next few years. You can't compete with that unless you are spending $200M.

Look at it simply from a team payroll standpoint. Houston stands at $150M. Even ignoring the late first rounder McCullers -- Springer, Bregman and Correa are all products of 90-100 loss seasons. Those 3 guys would be commanding $15-$20M+/year in free agency. So reality is that's a $200M payroll -- they just paid for it with 100-loss seasons rather than free agent $$.

You can't compete with that in the first few years. You have to wait until they actually have to start opening up the pocketbooks to pay those guys.

AP, do you have the link to buy the tickets for the A&M night? The webpage is missing the link to buy tickets. Thanks

www.Facebook.com/DavidPamAdopt

I guess I just have a different worldview.

First, the Astros won the World Series in 2017. Congrats. Now, let's move on to 2018. Astros just lost Gurriel (2017: .299, 18 HR) for 6 weeks. 2018 wasn't guaranteed, but the Rangers are making it so.

Admittedly, you have a team with less talent.

Rangers sit at $130M in 2018 and $72M in 2019, $64M in 2020.
Rangers could have added Verlander for $20M in 2018 & $20M in 2019.
They could have added Darvish for $25 & $20, respectively.
Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb could all be added at some cost.

The Astros don't have to do anything because their talent gap is wide enough. In the event they get off to a slow start, or lose a player or two... or a SP goes down... they can continue to compete without fear or uncertainty. At the trade deadline, even if they are hobbling, they will be fine.

Where as, if the Rangers at least put a competitive team together, you add pressure to the Astros. We have seen over-and-over in baseball... a few injuries and it completely changes the team.

A rotation of:
a: Hamels, Verlander, Darvish, Perez & Scrub is a worthwhile competitor.
b: Hamels, Arrietta, Perez, Retread (Moore/Minor/Other) and Rookie (YoMen/Other) keeps you in the hunt where anything can happen.
c: Hamels, Perez, Minor, Moore, Fister is just terrible.

If Odor, Mazara, and Gallo all reach their potential in 2018... with a rotation of (a.) you should expect 90 Ws. Maybe 85 Ws with (b.) and with (c.) IMO, you are looking at no better than 78-79 Ws. Could be worse.

We all know 162 Games is a long season. With all the high profile FAs after 2018, you have to believe you will be able to add significantly at the trade deadline. So, instead of the Rangers being in the hunt, potentially added at the trade deadline, the Rangers have elected to remove themselves from consideration AND in doing so... decrease the cost if the Astros do decide they want to add an additional piece.

Paying $100M for 2 years of a 35 year old with 2500+ innings on his arm and what amounts to a #2 with questionable durability (that if he goes down you'll owe him $80MM over the next 4 years) is a recipe for disaster.

That's the type of move you make if you are a legitimate division favorite and want to go for a WS -- not the move you make trying to win a wildcard and maybe just battle for a division.

Verlander was a good get because he helped you for postseason 2017 -- for 2018 and 2019 you are likely paying $20M a year for a 4+ ERA pitcher.

shortstackaggie said:

---

AP, do you have the link to buy the tickets for the A&M night? The webpage is missing the link to buy tickets. Thanks

www.Facebook.com/DavidPamAdopt

---

Still waiting on the link from tickets.com.

Should be up soon

Thanks

free_mhayden said:

---

Paying $100M for 2 years of a 35 year old with 2500+ innings on his arm and what amounts to a #2 with questionable durability (that if he goes down you'll owe him $80MM over the next 4 years) is a recipe for disaster.

That's the type of move you make if you are a legitimate division favorite and want to go for a WS -- not the move you make trying to win a wildcard and maybe just battle for a division.

Verlander was a good get because he helped you for postseason 2017 -- for 2018 and 2019 you are likely paying $20M a year for a 4+ ERA pitcher.

---

If you take Verlander out of mix... meaning you rate him as a 4+ ERA pitcher... Houston has a meh rotation. Not a horrible one like the Rangers, but nothing scary to guarantee a conference champ annointing.

Rotation:
Keuchel (30-LHP): 23 GS, 145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
- 2016: 26GS, 4.55
Morton (34-RHP): 25 GS, 146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
- Career 4.41 ERA, going over 157.1 IP once in career
Cole (27-RHP): 33 GS, 203.0 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
McCullers (24-RHP): 22 GS, 118.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Verlander (35-RHP) - 33 GS, 206.0 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Their rotation has no surefire SP.

Keuchel continues to underwhelm in IP and while he pieced things together well in 2017 to get a nice line, look deeper. He was 4.24 ERA in 12 GS after the ASB, as opposed to his 1.67 in 11 GS pre-ASB.

McCullers has never gone over 125.2 IP. Like we've seen with Martin Perez, you just don't know.

DallasAg 94 said:

---

free_mhayden said:

---

Paying $100M for 2 years of a 35 year old with 2500+ innings on his arm and what amounts to a #2 with questionable durability (that if he goes down you'll owe him $80MM over the next 4 years) is a recipe for disaster.

That's the type of move you make if you are a legitimate division favorite and want to go for a WS -- not the move you make trying to win a wildcard and maybe just battle for a division.

Verlander was a good get because he helped you for postseason 2017 -- for 2018 and 2019 you are likely paying $20M a year for a 4+ ERA pitcher.

---

If you take Verlander out of mix... meaning you rate him as a 4+ ERA pitcher... Houston has a meh rotation. Not a horrible one like the Rangers, but nothing scary to guarantee a conference champ annointing.

Rotation:
Keuchel (30-LHP): 23 GS, 145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
- 2016: 26GS, 4.55
Morton (34-RHP): 25 GS, 146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
- Career 4.41 ERA, going over 157.1 IP once in career
Cole (27-RHP): 33 GS, 203.0 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
McCullers (24-RHP): 22 GS, 118.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Verlander (35-RHP) - 33 GS, 206.0 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Their rotation has no surefire SP.

Keuchel continues to underwhelm in IP and while he pieced things together well in 2017 to get a nice line, look deeper. He was 4.24 ERA in 12 GS after the ASB, as opposed to his 1.67 in 11 GS pre-ASB.

McCullers has never gone over 125.2 IP. Like we've seen with Martin Perez, you just don't know.

---

No, with Martin Perez you absolutely do know at this point.

Even if you take Verlander out of the mix, Keuchel/Morton/Cole/McCullers all project to be better than Texas' #1. Hell, Peacock who isn't on your list probably would probably give Texas' #2 a run for his money.

And that's not even looking at Houston's offense -- MVP-caliber Altuve. *proven* young stud talent in Correa. *potential* young stud talent in Bregman.

I'm not sure you quite get that this Astros team is likely going to win 100 games. Paying $20M for a 4+ ERA and another $22M for Darvish (with lots of risk on the backend of the contract) just so that you can compete for the division IF Hamels isn't done, IF Perez finally turns the corner, IF Odor bounces back, IF Mazara takes the next step, IF Gallo continues to mash and IF Beltre's legs survive the season is just foolish.

It's handicapping your future on a 50:1 longshot -- just to win the division.

Does anyone know if there will be a chance for public to buy Opening Day tickets without going to the secondary market? I decided not to get a game plan this year which usually guarantees Opening Day so I haven't kept up with the process the last several years.

As opposed to:

IF Minor (30) can become a SP after being a RP, last year.
IF Moore (28) can be a SP with less than a 5.0 ERA
IF Bush (32) can become a SP after having been a pitcher for 1 year.

and

IF Colon can pitch in the BP at the MLB level

and

IF Lincecum (33) can become an effective RP/Closer in MLB having never been a RP.

Regardless of how you look at it... JD added nothing but high risk/moderate reward players in key positions.

So, IF Odor and Mazara don't bounce back... and if Beltre takes a walker out to 3rd... we're really looking at a really, really, really terrible season. Could we reach 100 loses?

At which point, you really don't have enough to build for 2019.

The Astros tanked for 4 seasons

2014 - 92 Ls
2013 - 111 Ls
2012 - 107 Ls
2011 - 106 Ls

Even with that... it took 3 MORE years to win a WS and their window is likely only 1-2 more years.

This isn't Tampa Bay or Miami, but could very well get that way with a new $500M stadium.

Payroll at $130M... down from $165M is not what the voters and fans had in mind.

That $35M reduction isn't going to be added to the 2019 roster giving them $200M.

And that $130M includes:
$9M for Matt Moore
$8.3M for Mike Minor
$3.5M for Doug Fister
$1.75M for Chris Martin <- 31 yr RP who last pitched in 2015 with a 5.66 ERA
$1M for Jesse Chavez
$1M for Timmy Lincecum
That's $19.55M for crap.

DallasAg 94 said:

---

As opposed to:

IF Minor (30) can become a SP after being a RP, last year.
IF Moore (28) can be a SP with less than a 5.0 ERA
IF Bush (32) can become a SP after having been a pitcher for 1 year.

and

IF Colon can pitch in the BP at the MLB level

and

IF Lincecum (33) can become an effective RP/Closer in MLB having never been a RP.

Regardless of how you look at it... JD added nothing but high risk/moderate reward players in key positions.

So, IF Odor and Mazara don't bounce back... and if Beltre takes a walker out to 3rd... we're really looking at a really, really, really terrible season. Could we reach 100 loses?

At which point, you really don't have enough to build for 2019.

---

I'd much rather be a 100-loss team for one season with tons of $$$ and flexibility going into the next season than be a 90-loss team with $50M tied up in old-arms the next few years.

If you accept that the Astros aren't going to be caught without some major $$$ invested in risky arms and a lot of things going our way, then you acknowledge we're competing for the wildcard.

If we're competing for the wildcard, why not wait until July to see if you are a 60-win type team or an 80-win type team? If you're an 80-win type team you can make a cheap trade and go for the wildcard (remember how cheap Darivsh was for LA to acquire?). If you're a 60-win type team then you didn't waste $$$ on arms that aren't going to help you in the only year(s) of real value in their contract (the first few).

If Houston projected to be a 90-win team? Alright, maybe you go for it. But not in this situation. You'd rather sit tight in 2018 and be competitive in 2019-2022 than throw a lot of money at being maybe a wildcard in 2018-2019 and struggling beyond.

I'll play the game.

So, let's say they suck in 2018 with their $130M salary. We go to the off-season with a 70 Win team that likely loses it's HoF 3B and Franchise Face SS. A 70 W season would likely indicate Odor, Mazara & Gallo didn't do as well as hoped. Hamels' option for $20M doesn't get picked up. And none of Moore, Minor, Other, emerged as a real SP.

So, we'll need
2 SPs, with Perez, Moore and Minor anchoring it.
We'd need a 3B - Gallo? Who would not have played a season at 3B in... ever?
We'd need a SS - Profar? Or do we back the truck up for Andrus?
We'd still not have a 1B - Unless our rookie 1B makes an appearance.
We still won't have a CF. Well, one that has an arm.
We'll need a LF.
Choo at DH.
We will have no Closer.

We'll need to sign 6-7 FAs to be competitive in 2019. Agreed?

Without reading too closely -- sure.

So I hope you agree having 2 aging, expensive starting pitchers with high financial risk doesn't make that issue any better.

You don't pay an aging pitcher $20M+ year for multiple years if you aren't going to be a division contender until they are in the back-half of that contract. A young arm? Sure. A guy like Verlander? Absolutely not.

free_mhayden said:

---

Without reading too closely -- sure.

So I hope you agree having 2 aging, expensive starting pitchers with high financial risk doesn't make that issue any better.

You don't pay an aging pitcher $20M+ year for multiple years if you aren't going to be a division contender until they are in the back-half of that contract. A young arm? Sure. A guy like Verlander? Absolutely not.

---

I would no more pay an aging pitcher $20M+ year for multiple years than I would an aging pitcher $10M/yr, when they haven't pitched in 2-3 years.

I need more meat on this aging pitcher.

A 31 yo Darvish - 6yr/$126M? No.

Is Lance Lynn (30) or Alex Cobb (30) an answer? I don't know what they will get.

I just don't see how tanking this year will get us better in 2019 or beyond.

Here's what it stems back to IMO: the trades we made for guys who we thought would juuuust get us there, or tip us over the top for the World Series. I don't fault the Rangers or JD for making the moves, and at the time I don't think anyone was saying they were bad trades. Especially Lucroy and Hamels.

It would be nice to infuse our pitching staff with some of the pitchers we gave up in those trades, if nothing more than to just not have to roll the dice on an aging/over the hill starter or hope a longshot kind of project works out. Because we've got those kinds of guys in droves. A large part of the Rangers' success this season is based on guys turning it around. I don't know if you can count on that happening in general, and certainly not in droves like we would need it to happen.

DallasAg 94 said:

---

free_mhayden said:

---

Without reading too closely -- sure.

So I hope you agree having 2 aging, expensive starting pitchers with high financial risk doesn't make that issue any better.

You don't pay an aging pitcher $20M+ year for multiple years if you aren't going to be a division contender until they are in the back-half of that contract. A young arm? Sure. A guy like Verlander? Absolutely not.

---

I would no more pay an aging pitcher $20M+ year for multiple years than I would an aging pitcher $10M/yr, when they haven't pitched in 2-3 years.

I need more meat on this aging pitcher.

A 31 yo Darvish - 6yr/$126M? No.

Is Lance Lynn (30) or Alex Cobb (30) an answer? I don't know what they will get.

I just don't see how tanking this year will get us better in 2019 or beyond.

---

1) It would obviously get us better because of a high draft pick.

But,

2) We aren't tanking. This is an 80ish win team, not a 60ish win team.


If the lottery pick of arms works out and we are contenders for WC2, great. If we aren't, flip them.

Adding Justin Verlander to maybe take the 2nd wildcard is making moves like the early 2000 Rangers.

Quote:

---

Could we reach 100 loses?

---

lmfao. If we lose 100 games I'll buy you season tickets for 2020 in the new stadium

Huell Babineaux said:

---

Quote:

---

Could we reach 100 loses?

---

lmfao. If we lose 100 games I'll buy you season tickets for 2020 in the new stadium

---

SAWEET!

Huell Babineaux said:

---

Quote:

---

Could we reach 100 loses?

---

lmfao. If we lose 100 games I'll buy you season tickets for 2020 in the new stadium

---

Buy season tickets this year so you can have priority when we do seat selection for the new stadium this summer

A little off topic, but did anyone see the Yankees let Russel Wilson have an at-bat in their game the other day. I was kinda surprised as I thought the Seahawks were totally against him doing things like that when he was with the Rangers

Edit to add video

https://instagr.am/p/Bf1WVKCA3Ld

Huell Babineaux said:

---

Quote:

---

Could we reach 100 loses?

---

lmfao. If we lose 100 games I'll buy you season tickets for 2020 in the new stadium

---

Listen to the man... I want priority seats...

Quote:

---

AccidentProne said:

Quote:

---

Buy season tickets this year so you can have priority when we do seat selection for the new stadium this summer

---

---

Reading Hamels vs the 6-Man rotation... looks like trouble ahead.

Hamels appears vehemently opposed to even considering the 6-Man rotation.

The following quotes:

Quote:

---

"it's not part of baseball" and "you might as well be in college."

---

My sense is the Rangers are gearing up for a 6-Man rotation attempt. Even if they don't have quality SPs, the roster really has been pieced together for a 6-Man rotation.

Even worse is it looks really more like a Rotation-by-Committee. This rotation is what you put together to have a bullpen-by-committee type rotation. A 5-Man rotation gets you 32-33 GS, while a 6-Man rotation gets 27. 6 IP per GS gets you <drum-roll> 162 IP.

Hamels is the only proven SP. He wants 200IP. That requires about 7 1/3 per GS. He has 8 seasons over 200IP, and last year's 148 IP was his lowest since his rookie year.
Perez is a capable SP. His last 2 seasons were 198.2 & 185 IP.

We've hashed this relentlessly.

Bush seems adamant he is going to be in the rotation. Choo has praised his worthiness. Bush has established himself in the BP. Never having pitched more than 61.2 IP... he (and the Organization) thinks he is going to get to 150-160 IP?

YoMen - Someone we haven't talked much about lately. Off to a pretty solid start in ST. I have long touted him and hope this is "the year."

Moore has found some things to turn his fate around. We'll see. Man... if he can be sub-4.00 ERA.

Minor likely starts in the rotation, but in a 5-Man... he'll be done by the ASB.

Plug a 6th man in there and it helps everyone except Hamels. Go 5 man and your rotation will have nothing mid-season.

If the Rangers are going to push a 6-Man... Hamels will have to be traded. Good or Bad. For all intents... This is a contract year for him. His 2019 option vests if he reaches 200 IP in 2018 and his total 17--18 IP is over 400. Won't likely vest, but a season over 200 IP makes his potential income for 2019 huge. A 6-Man rotation may help his ERA\WHIP, but it reduces the number of Ws and the IP... it also throws a wrench into consideration for other teams in the off-season. He HAS to pitch in a 5-man rotation.

When they decide it will be a 6-Man... what do we get back?

I would think 2-3 legit prospects.

What's the benefit of a 6-man rotation? I don't see any.

The benefit of the 6-man rotation is that arms stay fresher down the stretch (and in Texas' case, you get a chance to see what everyone has).

Hamels can be against it all he wants. If he pitches well, he'll likely be pitching on regular schedule. If he doesn't pitch well, then it shows that a 6-man rotation was probably for the best.

Hamels doesn't like it because he's likely going to be a free agent next year and doesn't want to be limited in his IP.

Several.

As mhayden stated, fresher down the stretch.

I think statistical analysis shows most pitchers see better numbers on more rest. I believe they tend to go deeper into the game, as well.

You get fewer GS, which reduces the wear and tear. 32-33 GS vs 27 GS.

The downside is... 200IP (6.0 IP for 33 GS) is generally a gold standard for pitchers. And I think 150 IP is the base you really need. 8 AL pitchers went 200+ in 2017. 24 additional pitchers went 150+ in the AL.

Consider this. If Hamels is in a 5 man rotation, he'll take 20% of the GS. In a 6 man, it is 17%.

I think in order to make sense, your 6th option in the rotation has to be aligned similarly to the rest of your rotation or you dilute the rotation.

Consider a traditional: Ace, #2, #3, #4, #5. If your 6th is a traditional 6th/Minor leaguer, you water down the value of your Top 3, by giving them fewer GS and replacing them with a guy substantially lower.

Where as, if you have: #2, #4, #5, #5, #5. If your 6th is similar to all but your #2... adding that 6th doesn't really dilute your rotation, especially if it makes the 4 on the backend measurably better.

It becomes a statistical game.

If Hamels puts up a 3.20 ERA in a 6th man rotation, he has less bargaining than if he puts up a 3.5 in a 5 man, IMO. Teams will think he has aged and can't endure 200 IP.

Fister really gave it to Seattle today.

Minor blew up.

Not a good day for Seattle Paxton... better get things fixed by election Tuesday. ">

Matt Moore getting the GS today.

I'll say this again... Matt Moore has the potential to be a Homerun addition.

Love that guy. Always have.

2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2K

--- 1st IP ---
K
K
Fo9
--- 2nd IP ---
Fo5
Go4
Go4
--- 3rd IP ---
BB
FC
Go1
BB
1B

Cruised through 2IP. Let's see how he feels tomorrow and the overall analysis, but he could lock down the #3 spot in the rotation.

AccidentProne... when do you launch the Official Season thread?!

I tried on my 2017 Rangers' colored glasses. They seem to fit... although a little snug (extra weight I suppose).


Ready for the Rangers-aid.

I suppose I'll start it the week of opening day.

Single game tickets went on sale today so you should be able to use that coupon code texags18

THIS is how I know it is the Rangers' season. World Series or Bust!

Matt Moore willing to give up # to teammate.

Awesome!

So Hamels doesn't like the 6 man rotation?

Well, he's in luck - he can do something about it with his very own arm.

Colon on the bump.

Headed to the bottom of the 1st... he is about to let loose.

Accident if you could talk to your marketing group
Dad Bod Contest/ Colon start Sunday on a July afternoon tilt is a winner

JD has really done a great job with this rotation opportunity.

Freaking masterful on the Colon pickup.

Dude starts off the game today with 1.0 IP: K, Line out 1, BB, Line out to 8.

When ST is over... JD is going to have two legit SPs to trade and will get impactful prospects in return...

Dude is a genius who does his homework! He probably works harder than anyone in MLB.

BTW... anyone who wants a little hideaway cottage in Benbrook, might look into Bob Simpson's little dwelling.