free_mhayden said:

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Anything can happen, but really not sure where you are getting this new angle that you don't think Ohtani will pitch much in the MLB in 2018 because of injury (rather than because of his stuff -- which I haven't seen any scout consider it any worse than a back-end-rotation guy).

His ankle surgery went as expected and rehab puts him ready to go by mid-January. This isn't arm or shoulder surgery that you need large chunks of time before you even start throwing and then half a season to truly be back to 100%.

If there are no significant setbacks, he may not be ready to go Opening Day, but he'll certainly be ready for the majority of the 2018 season.

If his ankle isn't well enough for him to pitch, it's probably not going to be well enough for him to hit either.

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My repeated comments about him not pitching in 2018 are only in part because of the ankle surgery.

In 2017, he pitched 5GS for 25.1 IP. He had 19 BB.

His peak of 160.2 IP was in 2015.

By comparison... Darvish had 4 seasons of over 200 IP with his peak at 232.0 the year before he came to Texas.

Ohtani has ERAs of 4.23 (age 18), 2.61, 2.24, 1.86 & 3.20 (age 22)
Darvish had ERAs of 3.53 (age 18), 2.89, 1.82, 1.88, 1.73 (age 22), 1.78 & 1.44 (age 24).
Darvish then posted a 3.90 ERA with Texas.

Any logical minor league pitcher with the experience Ohtani has pitching... IMO, would not be slated to throw over about 140 IP in 2018. His limited pitching in 2017 would be similar to a rehab for an experienced MLB coming back.

The ankle issue, without knowing the details, just leads me to believe 120-130 IP is what you will get from him in 2018 and I would venture to guess his 1st 30-40 IP will be in the minors. He will likely get promoted for a few weeks and then return to the minors. Remember... Japanese pitchers are used to pitching once per week... not every 5 days.

He could require the signing team to have him on the Major League roster, but that would surprise me.

I could be wrong.

As talented as he is, it looks like there is a lot work and development still needed as a pitcher. I'm not sure that landing him means all that much to a team's staff for 2018 and maybe not 2019 either.

I'm certainly no expert on this guy, and knowing how his stuff will translate is never an exact science -- but I haven't seen a single scout question his ability to be in a major league rotation. There's naturally question on whether he can be a top-end guy, but I don't think there is much question that he is a MLB starter.

The bat is the bonus to the arm -- not the other way around.

And saying that you don't think he will pitch much in 2018 and saying that you think he'll only pitch 130-140 innings in 2018 are completely different statements. Texas had 2 starters throw more than 150 innings last year. Houston had 0.

If he's throwing 130-140 innings, that isn't "not pitching much" by anyone's definition.

free_mhayden said:

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I'm certainly no expert on this guy, and knowing how his stuff will translate is never an exact science -- but I haven't seen a single scout question his ability to be in a major league rotation. There's naturally question on whether he can be a top-end guy, but I don't think there is much question that he is a MLB starter.

The bat is the bonus to the arm -- not the other way around.

And saying that you don't think he will pitch much in 2018 and saying that you think he'll only pitch 130-140 innings in 2018 are completely different statements. Texas had 2 starters throw more than 150 innings last year. Houston had 0.

If he's throwing 130-140 innings, that isn't "not pitching much" by anyone's definition.

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He won't throw 130-140 IP in MLB. If he goes 130-140 IP, it will be mostly in the minors.

The statement has always been, in 2018 he won't pitch much in MLB

And Houston had:
Fiers: 153.1 IP
Morton: 146.2 IP
Keuchel: 145.2 IP
Peacock: 132.0 IP

So, they had 4 SPs go more than 130 IP at the MLB level. They had 3 SPs go more than 150 IP if you consider their minor league innings, as well.

Obviously no one knows for sure, but I just haven't seen a single scout bring up any question that Ohtani's stuff is currnetly minor-league caliber or that his ankle injury will likely impact his ability to pitch significantly in 2018.

You could wind up being right, but it's a complete guess not backed up by anything.

free_mhayden said:

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Obviously no one knows for sure, but I just haven't seen a single scout bring up any question that Ohtani's stuff is currnetly minor-league caliber or that his ankle injury will likely impact his ability to pitch significantly in 2018.

You could wind up being right, but it's a complete guess not backed up by anything.

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I prefer to think of it as "speculation" as opposed to "a complete guess."

Most scouts don't have the level of knowledge and acumen I have, so it is no wonder my HSOs are new revelation to some. Which is funny considering the times I'm called a parrot.

I have this gut feeling that as a pitcher Ohtani is going to be more like Chan Ho Park.

Happy Baseball Thanksgiving Day.

For anyone bored and having a little time on your hands over the holiday break, here is a posting FAQ. The TLDR version, new deal should be approved Dec 1st, which would open a 21 day window to determine where Ohtani will land.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262340780/shohei-ohtani-faq/

And so it goes.

Got ourselves another #4 SP:


Fister signs MLB deal with Rangers.

2017: 15 GS, 4.88 ERA, 1.384 WHIP, 90.1 IP, 83 K

Open, Hamels, Open, Perez, Fister.

Let's hope we got a 1yr/$5-7M deal on him. 34 year old innings eater?



Hope JD is saving money for a big splash deal with a big name. Maybe JD feels good about signing Ohtani and thinks Fister could give a baseline for what Ohtani has to show in order to reach the majors..

at least Ranger Twitter will be interesting when he pitches

Just need Busby in as a guest commentator to get "FISTER FISTED HIM ON THAT ONE"

Better a Busby quip, than having to listen to Josh Lewin's diarrhea of the mouth about some obscure pop culture reference from a movie nobody has watched.

Instead, we'll have that other guy nobody likes.

From newberg:

According to multiple sources on Twitter, the Rangers have agreed to terms with 33-year-old righthander Doug Fister on a big league contract, pending a physical. Chris Cotillo (MLB Daily Dish) reports that the deal is for one year at $3.5 million plus a $4.5 million club option ($500,000 buyout) for 2019. Each year reportedly includes an additional $500,000 in incentives, and undisclosed escalators can kick the 2019 option up to $7 million making the max value of the contract either $11 million or $11.5 million over two years.

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2017/11/26/rangers-spent-holiday-weekend-responding-questions-shohei-ohtanis-camp

Would think this gives the Rangers a fighting chance if they want Ohtani.

It actually probably hurts their chances a bit. Texas benefits from this being as much about the money as anything else. Once you start letting the Padres write 1000 word essays on why Ohtani is the greatest, anything can happen.

Rangers international experience, experience with Darvish, the fact they've probably scouted Ohtani longer than anyone plus the money should put them close to the top. I'd still give the Yankees the edge but I think this helps the Rangers more than it hurts.

So the guy wants to be recruited? Easy enough, Rangers just need to hire the following:

- College basketball recruiter
- Expert Japanese psychologist
- Expert in Japanese written composition

Sounds easy enough.

Petino's looking for a gig.

If the terms are correct on Fister, I like it. WAY cheaper than say Cashner, et al. A single year deal, with an option for a 2nd with a cheap buyout. That gives them the ability keep him if they find a fix for his performance.

With that... we now have 3 viable SPs.

Jose Leclerc (23) is throwing in the DR Winter league. He is being used as a RP, with 12G, 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 11 SO.
The only other of note is Tyler Davis (24). 5 GS, 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA.

We'll likely fill that 5th spot with AJG (29), YoMen (22), Nick Martinez (27) or someone off the Spring Training released heap.

What I don't know is if the Fister signing was an acknowledgement that the Rangers are out of the sweepstakes for Darvish\Arrieta... and/or if they are out on Cobb\Lynn. Or was it a cheap deal knowing they are going to need as much money on one of those 4.

I think Ohtani is still a 3 team shuffle. Seattle, NYY and Texas.

If passing on $15M from a Cashner-type and going $4M on Fister frees up $10M+... you could blow the bank on Darvish luring Ohtani.

Hell, go out and sign Ichiro for a 1 year deal as a pet. This is where Colby Lewis comes in.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Hell, go out and sign Ichiro for a 1 year deal as a pet.

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Yes, because another LH bat is just what this team needs!

KT 90 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Hell, go out and sign Ichiro for a 1 year deal as a pet.

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Yes, because another LH bat is just what this team needs!

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I only want him if he promises to swing like his eyes are closed half the time. Gotta keep with Rangers' LH tradition from last season!

Hell, I'd want Ichiro just to listen to Tom Grieve grumble and complain every time he comes to the plate.

Tom loves cookies. Tom hates Ichiro.

KT 90 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Hell, go out and sign Ichiro for a 1 year deal as a pet.

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Yes, because another LH bat is just what this team needs!

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But, But... his splits. He is hitting .329 against LHP vs .305 against RHP.

Besides... put him on the DL60 and let him just hang out with Ohtani in the dugout (or minors. ).

And Seattle's front office appears to be following us.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/mariners-sign-hisashi-iwakuma-to-minor-league-contract.html


I told you I know what I'm talking about. I'm WAY ahead of most of these MLB front-offices.

FWIW, an Asian dinner was being set up in one of the meeting spaces last night as I was leaving the ballpark

Were there leftovers in the break room fridge this morning? 'Cause I love Dan Dan noodles from Pei Wei the next day.

AccidentProne said:

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FWIW, an Asian dinner was being set up in one of the meeting spaces last night as I was leaving the ballpark

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By Asian... would that be something an established, elite Japanese, like Darvish would enjoy... something fresh and hip that a young Japanese, like Ohtani would enjoy... or something more Korean that you would buy for a friend like Choo?

Looking for context.

Probably means a ladyboy show

Couple of labradoodles and a giant centipede on a stick.

Wow... I'm just seeing that Gabe Kapler is the new Phillies GM.

Kapler is their new manager