I mean, it does specifically say "at this time."texsn95 said:
Saying there's "nothing to worry about" at this point is pretty irresponsible, in my opinion.
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Let's get this thread back on track.
Peak comedy in Western Civilization was reached between 1993 and 2003 with Adam Sandler and Dave Chapelle.
Peak comedy in Western Civilization was reached between 1993 and 2003 with Adam Sandler and Dave Chapelle.
In the words of KG, "anything is possible", but at this point it's unlikely to impact Houston so no need to worry. But they said they are monitoring it, so if it looks like it could be trending towards a Houston or Texas impact I'm sure they'll raise the alarm.
Keep in mind that they are also speaking to a subgroup of people (weather nerds) who are already overly neurotic and paranoid. If they state that we should worry because there's a chance that this might impact Houston then people will be calling for evacuations and buying up gas and groceries.
It's hurricane season so be prepared.
Keep in mind that they are also speaking to a subgroup of people (weather nerds) who are already overly neurotic and paranoid. If they state that we should worry because there's a chance that this might impact Houston then people will be calling for evacuations and buying up gas and groceries.
It's hurricane season so be prepared.
texsn95 said:
Saying there's "nothing to worry about" at this point is pretty irresponsible, in my opinion.
I find that this is one of the SCW guy's biggest detractors. Sometimes they take the "no hype" stuff a little too far and don't just call it like it is.
Has complaining that storms aren't being hyped up ENOUGH become the new thing?
Captain Winky said:
Has complaining that storms aren't being hyped up ENOUGH become the new thing?
Nah, just complaining is the thing.
We complained they didn't hype up storms like the derecho enough. But then a couple weeks ago complained they overhyped a nothing storm.
So, we'll just complain one way or another
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Hurricane #Beryl Advisory 14: Beryl Becomes a Potentially Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane In the Eastern Caribbean. Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Winds and Storm Surge To Jamaica Later This Week. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 2, 2024
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GFS has been light on intensity, but still shows it will run into some sheer starting late tomorrow. The folks in Jamaica are hoping that holds true.
ICON model now brings this into LA. Windshield wiper here we go...
BayAg_14 said:
The folks in Jamaica are hoping that holds true.
Latest GFS is bringing it to Central Texas.texsn95 said:
ICON model now brings this into LA. Windshield wiper here we go...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024070200&fh=78
This things going to ****ing hit us
Obviously yucatan will dictate what happens but probability it hits the upper Texas coast is higher today it seems. Hopefully it doesn't gather strength and I button hook. A cat 2 once it passes yucatan could gain a LOT of steam.
What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??
It's weather. Great job if you can get it because you never are wrong, the weather changedAnti-taxxer said:
What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??
Seriously, thanks to all for this thread. Watching for my parents who still live in Houston.
Anti-taxxer said:
What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??
Remember when it was discussed to not trust models that far out and there's still a chance it could turn northward?
Well...
Andddd flying back Sunday now to avoid any early week shenanigans with this storm
Ag_07 said:Anti-taxxer said:
What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??
Remember when it was discussed to not trust models that far out and there's still a chance it could turn northward?
Well...
"Don't trust the models that far out"
"Oh hey, it's 12 days out and Harvey models show 43" of rain."
I love Sea Speeds's latest forecast (nothing burger with 30 mph winds hitting just north of the border in south Texas.)
But IMO still way too far out to be certain. Just watch the NOAA NHC cone. If we start moving into the cone then it's pucker time.
But IMO still way too far out to be certain. Just watch the NOAA NHC cone. If we start moving into the cone then it's pucker time.
I've always said I'll ride up to a 3. Here's hoping.
Excerpt from Space City this morning. eyewall does not have a Tuesday posting yet:
Quote:
After that time the system will most likely remain bottled up in the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, given the trend toward weakening high pressure over Texas, some of the the moisture from Beryl could work its way north. This will influence the extent to which Houston sees increased rainfall chances late in the weekend and next week. Is there a scenario in which Beryl becomes a bit more organized and its center tracks toward Texas? Yes. But for now this seems less likely an outcome than just increased rainfall chances for the greater Houston area. We'll keep a close eye on it all.
My bad, this is probably my fault. Yesterday, with no notable rain in the forecast, I topped off our pool cause it was getting a little low.
Even if it heads north but stays just a TS as shown here, not the end of the worldSerotonin said:
I love Sea Speeds's latest forecast (nothing burger with 30 mph winds hitting just north of the border in south Texas.)
But IMO still way too far out to be certain. Just watch the NOAA NHC cone. If we start moving into the cone then it's pucker time.
yah, even if it hits Texas it will be a TD. By the time the dirty side gets to Houston, it will just be rain, no wind.
They didn't expect cat 5 and here we are. I think saying anything with that degree of certainty right now is a mistake, although I obviously hope you're right.
I am more concerned with my family in the valley now. Hope this thing starts to weaken and stay south.
Sea Speed said:
They didn't expect cat 5 and here we are. I think saying anything with that degree of certainty right now is a mistake, although I obviously hope you're right.
Aside from, hopefully, rain, Houston has zero concern.
ETA wrong emoji
Yeah they've all been a few categories low in the modeled wind speed estimates. It's about to hit an area of higher shear in the Carib so we'll see how much it weakens. But unless it gets a lower track through the Mx peninsula and has a few days to weaken over land, I don't see how we don't at least have a Cat 1 in the GoM.Sea Speed said:
They didn't expect cat 5 and here we are. I think saying anything with that degree of certainty right now is a mistake, although I obviously hope you're right.
Yellow / orange / red = high wind shear which is suppose to blow the top off it and weaken it. Besides a small spot in the Yucatan channel it should get torn up some starting tonight. We'll see.
Fascinating
texsn95 said:
Fascinating
Incredibly
The way these storms import and export energy is absolutely mind blowing.
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