In the words of KG, "anything is possible", but at this point it's unlikely to impact Houston so no need to worry. But they said they are monitoring it, so if it looks like it could be trending towards a Houston or Texas impact I'm sure they'll raise the alarm.

Keep in mind that they are also speaking to a subgroup of people (weather nerds) who are already overly neurotic and paranoid. If they state that we should worry because there's a chance that this might impact Houston then people will be calling for evacuations and buying up gas and groceries.

It's hurricane season so be prepared.

texsn95 said:

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Saying there's "nothing to worry about" at this point is pretty irresponsible, in my opinion.

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I find that this is one of the SCW guy's biggest detractors. Sometimes they take the "no hype" stuff a little too far and don't just call it like it is.

This guy gets it.

Hurricane #Beryl Advisory 14: Beryl Becomes a Potentially Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane In the Eastern Caribbean. Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Winds and Storm Surge To Jamaica Later This Week. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 2, 2024

Well I be got dammed. The fear porn is strong.

GFS has been light on intensity, but still shows it will run into some sheer starting late tomorrow. The folks in Jamaica are hoping that holds true.

ICON model now brings this into LA. Windshield wiper here we go...

texsn95 said:

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ICON model now brings this into LA. Windshield wiper here we go...

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Latest GFS is bringing it to Central Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024070200&fh=78

What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??

Anti-taxxer said:

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What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??

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It's weather. Great job if you can get it because you never are wrong, the weather changed

Seriously, thanks to all for this thread. Watching for my parents who still live in Houston.

Andddd flying back Sunday now to avoid any early week shenanigans with this storm

Ag_07 said:

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Anti-taxxer said:

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What the hell is this??? Is this the same thing that said yesterday it was going straight across the Yucatn and into Mexico??

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Remember when it was discussed to not trust models that far out and there's still a chance it could turn northward?

Well...

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"Don't trust the models that far out"

"Oh hey, it's 12 days out and Harvey models show 43" of rain."

I love Sea Speeds's latest forecast (nothing burger with 30 mph winds hitting just north of the border in south Texas.)

But IMO still way too far out to be certain. Just watch the NOAA NHC cone. If we start moving into the cone then it's pucker time.

I've always said I'll ride up to a 3. Here's hoping.

Excerpt from Space City this morning. eyewall does not have a Tuesday posting yet:

Quote:

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After that time the system will most likely remain bottled up in the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, given the trend toward weakening high pressure over Texas, some of the the moisture from Beryl could work its way north. This will influence the extent to which Houston sees increased rainfall chances late in the weekend and next week. Is there a scenario in which Beryl becomes a bit more organized and its center tracks toward Texas? Yes. But for now this seems less likely an outcome than just increased rainfall chances for the greater Houston area. We'll keep a close eye on it all.

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My bad, this is probably my fault. Yesterday, with no notable rain in the forecast, I topped off our pool cause it was getting a little low.

Serotonin said:

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I love Sea Speeds's latest forecast (nothing burger with 30 mph winds hitting just north of the border in south Texas.)

But IMO still way too far out to be certain. Just watch the NOAA NHC cone. If we start moving into the cone then it's pucker time.

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Even if it heads north but stays just a TS as shown here, not the end of the world

yah, even if it hits Texas it will be a TD. By the time the dirty side gets to Houston, it will just be rain, no wind.

I am more concerned with my family in the valley now. Hope this thing starts to weaken and stay south.

Sea Speed said:

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They didn't expect cat 5 and here we are. I think saying anything with that degree of certainty right now is a mistake, although I obviously hope you're right.

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Aside from, hopefully, rain, Houston has zero concern.

ETA wrong emoji

Sea Speed said:

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They didn't expect cat 5 and here we are. I think saying anything with that degree of certainty right now is a mistake, although I obviously hope you're right.

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Yeah they've all been a few categories low in the modeled wind speed estimates. It's about to hit an area of higher shear in the Carib so we'll see how much it weakens. But unless it gets a lower track through the Mx peninsula and has a few days to weaken over land, I don't see how we don't at least have a Cat 1 in the GoM.

Fascinating

texsn95 said:

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Fascinating

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Incredibly

The way these storms import and export energy is absolutely mind blowing.