Which hurricane is that regarding?

Dill-Ag13 said:

---

Which hurricane is that regarding?

---

All of them.

Matt Lanza is now the Manager of Meteorology at CenterPoint Energy.

Going to Florida screaming "I am the Weatherman"

So long 2024 Hurricane Season. You won't be missed

So after the freeze I got a portable gen, inlet installed, gas cans, hand pump to pull gas out of vehicles and fill up the gen if needed. Pretty good setup I thought, then we were out of town during Beryl and lost all the food in fridge and freezer anyway. Whomp whomp, try again next time I guess...

Heard the hand pumps may not work on some newer vehicles.

Yep newer cars have anti-siphon devices built in. Make sure you look into that.

Near 80 degrees and super humid in mid December. Barf.

Just turned on the AC

Well it's lightly rained in Spring Branch and of course we lost power.

Quote:

---

The 2025 hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the most intense in recent years, with forecasters at Colorado State University predicting an above-normal active season. A staggering 17 named storms are expected, with 9 hurricanes four of those could intensify into major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.

---

&ct=g

To be fair, average or below average hurricane season predicitions do not produce as many website clicks!

Charlie Murphy said:

---

To be fair, average or below average hurricane season predicitions do not produce as many website clicks!

---

this. they literally say above avg predictions every time this year.

Didn't someone do digging last year (because we said this last year also) and it wasn't true? Didn't it actually show they've under-predicted more often.

updated. and yes, NOAA underpredicted # of named storms in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. They underpredicted # of hurricanes in 2017 and 2020. They underpredicted # of major hurricanes in 2017 and 2020.

NOAA overpredicted only once since 2016: # major hurricanes in 2022.

__________________________________________________________

NOAA definitions of above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons

The 1950-2000 mean value of the ACE index is 93.7, and the median value is 86.0

Above-normal season: An ACE index value well above 103 (103 corresponds to 120% of the median ACE value or 110% of the mean), or an ACE value slightly above 103 combined with at least two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Near-normal season: An ACE index value in the range 66-103 (corresponding to 76%-120% of the median or 70%-110% of the mean), or an ACE index value slightly above 103 but with less than two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Below-normal season: An ACE index value below 66, corresponding to below 76% of the median or 70% of the mean.

__________________________________________________________

NOAA Prediction 2025
TBD

NOAA Prediction 2024 - "above normal"
Named Storms 17-25, actual 18
Hurricanes 8-13, actual 11
Major hurricanes 4-7, actual 5
Total damage $129.7 billion, 427 total fatalities, ACE=161.6

NOAA Prediction 2023 - "near normal"
Named Storms 12-17, actual 20
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 3
Total damage $4.19 billion, 18 total fatalities, ACE=148

NOAA Prediction 2022 - "above normal"
Named Storms 14-21, actual 14
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 8
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 2
Total damage $118.286 billion, 304 total fatalities, ACE=95

NOAA Prediction 2021 - "above normal"
Named Storms 13-20, actual 21
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 7
Major hurricanes 3-5, actual 4
Total damage $80.727 billion, 194 total fatalities, ACE=146

NOAA Prediction 2020 - "above normal"
Named Storms 13-19, actual 30
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 14
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 7
Total damage $55.394 billion, 417 total fatalities, ACE=179.8

NOAA Prediction 2019 - "near normal"
Named Storms 9-15, actual 18
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 6
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 3
Total damage $11.6 billion, 121 total fatalities, ACE=130

NOAA Prediction 2018 - "near normal"
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 8
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 2
Total damage $50.526 billion, 172 total fatalities, ACE=129

NOAA Prediction 2017 - "above normal"
Named Storms 11-17, actual 17
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 10
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 6
Total damage $294.803 billion, 3369 total fatalities, ACE=224

NOAA Prediction 2016 - "near normal"
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 4
Total damage $17.485 billion, 736 total fatalities, ACE=126

Martin Q. Blank said:

---

updated

NOAA Prediction 2025
TBD

NOAA Prediction 2024
Named Storms 17-25, actual 18
Hurricanes 8-13, actual 11
Major hurricanes 4-7, actual 5
Total damage $129.7 billion, 427 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2023
Named Storms 12-17, actual 20
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 3
Total damage $4.19 billion, 18 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2022
Named Storms 14-21, actual 14
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 8
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 2
Total damage $118.286 billion, 304 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2021
Named Storms 13-20, actual 21
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 7
Major hurricanes 3-5, actual 4
Total damage $80.727 billion, 194 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2020
Named Storms 13-19, actual 30
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 14
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 7
Total damage $55.394 billion, 417 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2019
Named Storms 9-15, actual 18
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 6
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 3
Total damage $11.6 billion, 121 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2018
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 8
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 2
Total damage $50.526 billion, 172 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2017
Named Storms 11-17, actual 17
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 10
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 6
Total damage $294.803 billion, 3369 total fatalities

NOAA Prediction 2016
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 4
Total damage $17.485 billion, 736 total fatalities

---

so pretty much outside of 2020 every year is fairly consistent with each other? doesn't take a meteorologist to estimate in 2025 there will be between 12-20 named storms. I will take my $150,000 salary now

NOAA predicted "near normal" in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2023. They were all "above normal" per their definition.

Am I the only one who was sad to see this thread at the top of the page again?

et98 said:

---

Am I the only one who was sad to see this thread at the top of the page again?

---

Prolly. Some of these guys jack off to this *****

I just come here for the golf cart updates

Nitro Power said:

---

I just come here for the golf cart updates

---

I'll be here

My timbergrove derecho PTSD flares up when a storm like this sorta pops up…

TX04Aggie said:

---

My timbergrove derecho PTSD flares up when a storm like this sorta pops up…

---

Never forget

https://spacecityweather.com/storms-firing-up-across-houston-with-a-tumultuous-evening-on-tap/

Quote:

---

In terms of threats we have three major concerns right now.

RAIN: These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and under high rainfall rates we are likely to see street flooding. For this reason we have implemented a Stage 1 flood alert for the region through tonight. Essentially, you need to be weather aware on roads, take extra time, and do not drive into high water. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, with most of the area likely picking up 0.5 to 2 inches. I am concerned about a few bullseyes of 4 inches or more, which are possible.

WIND: There is a healthy chance of damaging winds with these storms, so anything you can batten down would be helpful. The threat of damaging winds is the highest we have seen so far this spring, so again this is another reason to stay off roads amid strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening if possible.

HAIL: In some thunderstorms near Kingwood weather spotters have already observed quarter-sized hail this afternoon. So this is a distinct threat as well as these storms pass through.
Tornadoes are also possible, but the threat is on the lower end of the scale.

---