B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

603,955 Views | 4423 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by cavscout96
tb9665
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Interesting graphs.
Gap
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AG
Texas 7 day rolling average of deaths is around 30 per day? New York had a rolling average of right at 1,000 deaths per day back in April. That is a factor of 30X difference and doesn't even account for Texas having about 50% more people than New York. We have 29 million people to their 19 million.
Rapier108
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70 New Cases
2 New Deaths
1199 New Tests
Big drop in hospital cases, but I'm not even going to guess the number from the ugly graphic.

77801 +5
77802 +5
77803 +17
77807 +2
77808 +5
77840 +22
77845 +13
77866 +1 (First in this zip code)

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.4.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Both deaths were females, 60s & 70s.

12 discharges.

60 more recovered. We now have more recovered than active cases.

Total Bed Occupancy: 75%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 69%

Total Covid patients in local hospitals: 67.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

Some rounding issues where the percentages given are not finite enough to get exactly the same numbers...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

34 current hospitalization that are Brazos County residents.

Learned from above poster that each ICU patient is about 2% of capacity.
scd88
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Rapier, trouble, and lockett - thank you.
MiMi
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S
30 tests, 83 new cases, 1 death

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.5.20.pdf
Rapier108
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83 New Cases
30 New Tests
1 New Death (Man in his 80s who was hospitalized)
Around 25 in the Hospital (~11 Discharged)

77801 +13
77802 +6
77803 +22
77807 +2
77808 +6
77840 +20
77845 +14

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.5.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jeffk
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It will be interesting to see what things look like in two weeks. Tons of big get-togethers all around us (77803) this weekend.
Gap
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jeffk said:

It will be interesting to see what things look like in two weeks. Tons of big get-togethers all around us (77803) this weekend.
If it isn't "interesting" in two weeks, do we get to stop panicking about it and go about our lives with people taking precautions only as they see fit?
Rapier108
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jeffk said:

It will be interesting to see what things look like in two weeks. Tons of big get-togethers all around us (77803) this weekend.
If there is another jump, our local and state leaders will respond in the dumbest way possible.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jeffk
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You're grown; do whatever you want. Everyone else already is.
AggieYankee1
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Rapier108 said:

jeffk said:

It will be interesting to see what things look like in two weeks. Tons of big get-togethers all around us (77803) this weekend.
If there is another jump, our local and state leaders will respond in the dumbest way possible.


What way would you response if local hospital leaders said

Listen - this city is your responsibility and there are a large number of people with comorbids and a large retirement demo in this area. We can not care for everyone and our nurse staff is exhausted.

Do you really feel the best idea is 'let it ripe' or warn everyone - recommend strongly they wear a mask and to keep your distance.

Pretend you are mayor 'Rapier' And the people were looking to you - what would you do, differently than the dumb leadership around here.

And please keep it as real as possible
Gap
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jeffk said:

You're grown; do whatever you want. Everyone else already is.


Do you like going to an Aggie baseball game, an Astros game, an Aggie football game?

How about a movie?

Do you usually watch fireworks from inside your car?

Do you have kids anywhere under college age? Any certainty about how school will look this Fall?

Do you normally vacation in the Summer? From the looks of things hotels and airlines are empty.

How does your friend's restaurant business look? Is he worried about closing up?

Quick conclusion: everyone isn't doing whatever they want.
jeffk
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Apologies for the hyperbole.

To the best of my ability, I'm doing what I can to make sure my family and all those we interact with have an improved chance of staying uninfected. There's quite a few people I observe here in BCS who aren't making the same decision.
trouble
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48 additional recovered.

11 discharged. 26 Brazos county residents hospitalized.

Total bed occupancy: 65%

Total ICU occupancy: 67%

I'll get total Covid hospitalized in a bit. It doesn't play well with my phone.

Those hospital numbers are LOW for a holiday weekend, y'all.
jeffk
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jeffk
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So we want to see hospitalization and death rates stay low (like they currently are) but rates of infection level off/decrease, right?
MiMi
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S
Quote:

Those hospital numbers are LOW for a holiday weekend, y'all.
The BCHD Facebook post from earlier today states that the Total Brazos County Hospital Occupancy percentage is 'as of 7.2.20.' It may be a couple of days before we know the % from this weekend. I'm not really sure, because every daily update post since 7/2 says this and the %'s differ each day.
trouble
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I think they just haven't changed the date. The percentages have changed every day.
MiMi
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S
Thanks. I had just noticed that and edited my post.
trouble
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jeffk said:

So we want to see hospitalization and death rates stay low (like they currently are) but rates of infection level off/decrease, right?


Yes. It's even okay if active cases continues to rise as long as hospitalizations remain manageable.

I don't think we'll see a large spike in deaths unless it runs through another senior care center.
trouble
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Proofreading is apparently not a thing at the health department which is part of why I'm so annoyed with them.
Rapier108
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Whoever does these daily PDFs should be demoted to cleaning the floors.

There are always errors, stuff not updated, and there was one day recently were an entire page was missing.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

Some rounding issues where the percentages given are finite enough to get exactly the same numbers...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
MiMi
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S
Looking at the numbers on the spreadsheet (thanks lockett), the number of new cases has doubled in the past 2 weeks. If my math is correct, the positivity rate over the last 2 weeks is 13.7% (with 9 deaths).

6/21 - 7/5:
Total number of tests - 9,061
Total new cases - 1240
lockett93
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I liked this analysis and write-up, as it tends to draw the same conclusions and opinions that I support.

https://outkick.com/coronavirus-daily-deaths-down-92-4-from-peak-have-declined-ten-straight-weeks/
Jinx
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lockett93 said:

I liked this analysis and write-up, as it tends to draw the same conclusions and opinions that I support.

https://outkick.com/coronavirus-daily-deaths-down-92-4-from-peak-have-declined-ten-straight-weeks/


Is that essentially the definition of confirmation bias?
lockett93
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Jinx said:



Is that essentially the definition of confirmation bias?



confirmation bias
noun
the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.

I don't think I did any "interpretations". But I'm glad I found an article that aligns well with my opinions on the subject matter. An article that is well written and backed up by fancy charts and graphs and facts that support the similar opinion.

toolshed
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The point of the article, I saw it earlier today, is that the health care system is much improved at treating this, and the mortality rate is way down from a couple months ago. If it's truth, backed by facts, not sure how that's confirmation bias.

I find it to be great news, encouraging that we are able to see higher survival rates in just a few short months.



MBAR
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Gap said:

jeffk said:

It will be interesting to see what things look like in two weeks. Tons of big get-togethers all around us (77803) this weekend.
If it isn't "interesting" in two weeks, do we get to stop panicking about it and go about our lives with people taking precautions only as they see fit?
If you don't get into an accident while you wear a seatbelt do you wear one the next time you get in your car?

What kind of logic is this? Hospitals around the state are literally at capacity right now. Lets hope we somehow avoid disasters in certain parts of the state but you honestly think this "panicking" is not appropriate?

People taking precautions as they see fit has us on the brink of an absolute disaster. You guys can talk about how not bad this is, but the moment those hospitals start triaging patients we step off a cliff and the death rate will climb very quickly and very harshly.

I don't think some of you quite grasp how close to a proverbial cliff we are in parts of Texas.

EDIT: And just to be clear, this "panicking" isn't even a shutdown. Its not allowing indoor dining, bars being closed, and telling you to wear a mask.
Bunk Moreland
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The way we treat severe covid patients has already improved dramatically over the last 4 months now that we know so much more.

Additionally its now an undisputed fact the high death rates early on were direct results of policy decisions in certain states that mandated actions which did the exact OPPOSITE of what we should do during an epidemic, which is protect our most vulnerable (the elderly) .
MBAR
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Bunk Moreland said:

The way we treat severe covid patients has already improved dramatically over the last 4 months now that we know so much more.

Additionally its now an undisputed fact the high death rates early on were direct results of policy decisions in certain states that mandated actions which did the exact OPPOSITE of what we should do during an epidemic, which is protect our most vulnerable (the elderly) .
I don't discount that one bit. That goes all out the window when you have limited access to services because hospitals are overwhelmed. This is currently happening parts of Texas. Not here, but the systems are strained quite severely state wide.

People really don't seem to get the severity of the current situation.
Bunk Moreland
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Where are the areas under severe strain and what is the severity?
MBAR
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Bunk Moreland said:

Where are the areas under severe strain and what is the severity?
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/04/texas-coronavirus-rio-grande-valley-hospitals/

San Antonio is pretty bad as well.
 
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