B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

673,707 Views | 4711 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Nosmo
Bunk Moreland
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Thanks.
cavscout96
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Jinx said:

lockett93 said:

I liked this analysis and write-up, as it tends to draw the same conclusions and opinions that I support.

https://outkick.com/coronavirus-daily-deaths-down-92-4-from-peak-have-declined-ten-straight-weeks/


Is that essentially the definition of confirmation bias?
not exactly. CB is more akin to only accepting evidence that supports your pre-conceived notion or bending/massaging the evidence to fit.

this is more like, Hey, this is what I've been saying all along, check it out to see if you agree.
toolshed
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MBAR said:

Bunk Moreland said:

The way we treat severe covid patients has already improved dramatically over the last 4 months now that we know so much more.

Additionally its now an undisputed fact the high death rates early on were direct results of policy decisions in certain states that mandated actions which did the exact OPPOSITE of what we should do during an epidemic, which is protect our most vulnerable (the elderly) .
I don't discount that one bit. That goes all out the window when you have limited access to services because hospitals are overwhelmed. This is currently happening parts of Texas. Not here, but the systems are strained quite severely state wide.

People really don't seem to get the severity of the current situation.

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html

According to this CDC page, not a media outlet which is paid by clicks on their website, Texas is doing just fine in regards to hospital capacities. Are there hot spots? Most likely. But again, the sky is not falling! Hospitals are able to adjust, increase staffing, convert beds, delay elective procedures, and more. Not to mention the option of being able to set up mobile field hospitals (of which I'm not sure hardly any that were set up early on were actually used, but I could be wrong).

On this report, which by my eye was last updated Friday, based on the line just above the first blue box as well as to the bottom right of each graphic.

First graphic:
When you select Texas, it shows state wide we are at 66% of all inpatient beds (or 46,848 beds) occupied, Covid and non covid patients.

Second Graphic
Of that 66%, only 12% (8,574 beds) of the 66% are actual covid patients.


Daily deaths have dropped dramatically, nationwide, from several thousand to a few hundred! But this isn't front page newsworthy...


Is caution and common sense practices warranted, yes. But not shutting down the economy, again, driving businesses out of business, and other side effects of telling everyone to stay home until this is over or we have a vaccine.


Gap
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Can you tell us how many in Texas are unemployed as a result of fear and panic and being right on the brink of a "catastrophe"? Anything else you are weighing against the fear of an impending catastrophe?
Bunk Moreland
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Another data point a responsible county/state health department would do during these times is truly monitor the increase in domestic abuse and suicide rates during an epidemic as well. We get big estimates that are ok for a national news story but local and state officials should always be monitoring things like that as well to truly weigh pros and cons of all public health
Bunk Moreland
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Right on cue for the above post... Overdoses have surged nationwide...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-drug-overdose
Gap
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And as far as the seatbelt analogy, it is a deficient one.

Seatbelts don't cause people to lay off their employees. Seatbelts don't put restaurants out of business. Seatbelts don't lessen the educational experience of our children and diminish their opportunities as we shrink the economy. Seatbelts don't increase suicides. Seatbelts don't cause increased overdoses. Etc.

Seatbelts don't even require that we drive slower, at 25% or 50% of normal depending on an order from a county judge or the governor.

The seatbelt anology would be akin to a message to wash your hands, cover your cough, and keep a safe distance.
FlyRod
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Agree about the bad analogy. Car crashes don't put businesses out of business. Car crashes don't impede education. Car crashes don't result in drug overdoses and suicides.

Fitch
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Through 7/5
AggieYankee1
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[This thread has remained respectful for months and we are going to say one more time that all opinions are welcome on this board as long as it is given in a respectful manner. Thank you. -Staff]
Aggie12B
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With another shutdown looming, I just want to say I'm personally not worried about covid. Hell, we all have to die of something. The main reason I'm NOT worried about the covid is I drank water straight from the tap in Baghdad on my 1st deployment. If that didn't kill me, covid is S*** out of luck.
trouble
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I just want baseball back
MBAR
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Bunk Moreland said:

Another data point a responsible county/state health department would do during these times is truly monitor the increase in domestic abuse and suicide rates during an epidemic as well. We get big estimates that are ok for a national news story but local and state officials should always be monitoring things like that as well to truly weigh pros and cons of all public health
I agree 100% with this. We probably disagree on how much of a safety net the government should be providing right now (we need more social services to address this IMO) but I do think people need some semblance of stability.

The question is that if we removed restrictions would that be a better outcome? I personally don't think so, and I defer to epidemiologists on this front.

I will say that there's no discussion about a shut down right now. I maintain people need to wear a damn mask and we need to not have indoor dining. Yes, this still puts certain people in a horrible economic bind but I honestly don't think that's avoidable due to the magnitude of this disaster. I hope we as a country help those people through a tough time.

A lot of countries have had hard lock downs, and have reopened and had success. I'm watching European soccer nearly every day. Still in empty stadiums, but a far different situation than what we're seeing here at home. We need to figure out a way to have as much of our economy open with some key measures in place to keep transmission manageable.

For now I'd settle for people wearing a damn mask.
isitjustme
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trouble said:

I just want baseball back

If you're in BCS, I suggest BV Bombers baseball. It's a good time.
trouble
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They're great. I'm just not sure how comfortable we're going to be with sports right now. We've been very careful so the boys can still spend lots of time with my MIL.
JimInBCS
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Just wanted to thank those again who continually provide us daily updates on this thread as to the status of the virus in BCS. Your diligence in going out your way to consistently provide this data is much appreciated, and I'm sure is heavily read by many of us who don't post regularly.

Also appreciate those like MBAR who provide commentary in a respectful fashion that allow us readers to continually question the assumptions we have. With supposedly unbiased media from a variety of sources providing conflicting interpretations of the data, hearing both sides of the issues is helpful (and perhaps vitally necessary) for us to make up our own minds on the best approach to address the virus.

This is my go to thread on the subject, and you guys are awesome. Thank you.
isitjustme
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trouble said:

They're great. I'm just not sure how comfortable we're going to be with sports right now. We've been very careful so the boys can still spend lots of time with my MIL.
Well, there's lots of room to distance and the fans respect that. They want you to wear your mask going in (not all do - just stay away from them if not comfortable) and you can sit as far away from others as you want and still be under the shade, and you can shed the mask. Temps are high enough that the virus would die quickly anyway.

Everything is handled pretty nicely - Yuri should run the MLB stadium experience this year.
trouble
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I might give it a try with the 4 year old.
Rapier108
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Running late today.

Wouldn't be shocked to see a really odd number (real low or real high) due to the holiday messing with the results, not cases caused by it. Way too early for that.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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48 new cases
19 new tests
0 new deaths
No change in hospitalizations

77801 +1
77802 +3
77803 +17
77807 +2
77808 +4
77840 +9
77845 +12

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.6.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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3 discharged

20 more recovered

Total bed occupancy: 62%

Total ICU occupancy: 63%

26 Brazos county patients, 57 total Covid patients
scd88
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Rapier108 said:

Running late today.

Wouldn't be shocked to see a really odd number (real low or real high) due to the holiday messing with the results, not cases caused by it. Way too early for that.


You were right. Perhaps 48 isn't really low; but it's lower than expected based upon the recent trends. If that trend sticks, we are onto something.
scd88
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trouble said:

3 discharged

20 more recovered

Total bed occupancy: 62%

Total ICU occupancy: 63%

26 Brazos county patients, 57 total Covid patients


Thanks. Hospitalization numbers look pretty damn good.
Bunk Moreland
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If numbers don't spike in the next 4 days let's move on with the charade. Doesn't the county order expire on 7/10?
trouble
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They really do esp for after a holiday weekend.


Quote:

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 495
Available Hospital Beds - 177
Available ICU Beds - 14
Available Ventilators - 43
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 57

A little more information for anyone interested. This is straight from Texas Departmentof State Health Services.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1v3HLy6SwMYRzRabH8EBweaQLwG7zdNCdOg5I1StoK-Z7JtosNGWwkm2A#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
KidDoc
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Bunk Moreland said:

If numbers don't spike in the next 4 days let's move on with the charade. Doesn't the county order expire on 7/10?
That doesn't matter- Abbott's order supersedes local orders. The "mandatory mask" from the State level will continue. I cannot find any information on when that expires or if it is in effect until he says so.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
tb9665
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Mask or Ventilator depending on age or health issues? The one problem you may not know you have any underlying health issues. Easy decision.
trouble
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It does not have an end date.
scd88
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I think we'll have masks through 2020 like we are some polluted third world country. I'm doing it, but what an abomination this has been. What a shift in how we go out on a daily basis. Just terrible.

It will keep the numbers low whether we want to admit it or not. But at some point, there will be a collective rebellion once the numbers stay low and we keep mandating masks.

For now, though, the numbers are an important stat to track and continue controlling.
trouble
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Agreed. I hate them for many reasons.

However, my extrovert self really needs to be able to see people in person so if this is how it has to be done, I'll suck it up and do it.
Bunk Moreland
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I'd rather see people in person without masks from 6 feet away as that's much more effective.

A funny thing I noticed though... With people more addicted than ever to phones so many people have lost the ability to make eye contact. Throw masks on in public and without being able to see the rest of someone's face and all the sudden everyone looks right into your eyes as if they can see your soul.
trouble
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I prefer to converse a little closer than that.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

Some rounding issues where the percentages given are not finite enough to get exactly the same numbers...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
toolshed
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trouble said:

I prefer to converse a little closer than that.


What did you say?




I tried talking to a friend I saw at Chuy's yesterday at lunch. Between his mask, and just a few people around us, I couldn't understand half of what he said!!
trouble
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Background noise is awful. I killed my hearing with too many concerts in the 90s
 
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