B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

795,466 Views | 5473 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by trouble
trouble
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Thank you.
MiMi
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S
103 new cases reported today, no new tests, no deaths

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.3.20.pdf
Rapier108
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103 new cases
0 new deaths
0 new tests (BS)
41 in the hospital

77801 +6
77802 +12
77803 +27
77807 +6
77808 +8
77840 +22
77845 +22

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.3.20.pdf

I'd love to know why last week there were thousands of new tests, and this week there are almost none. There is no way we just quit testing.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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4 discharged.

67 more recovered.

Total hospital occupancy 78%

Total ICU occupancy 51%

57 total Covid patients in local hospitals
nthomas99
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Rapier108 said:

103 new cases
0 new deaths
0 new tests (BS)
41 in the hospital

77801 +6
77802 +12
77803 +27
77807 +6
77808 +8
77840 +22
77845 +22

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.3.20.pdf

I'd love to know why last week there were thousands of new tests, and this week there are almost none. There is no way we just quit testing.

Something is off.

Is it possible positive cases are being tallied and reported prior to the corresponding testing? I know they are rushing to report positives to people before calling to report negatives. Is reporting to the county in any way tied to this?

Are the positives we are seeing lagging in from tests run weeks ago?

The trailing 7 day positivity rate is 50%. There's just no way. If 50% of people tested have coronavirus, we will all have it within a week and somehow hospitalization rate has amazingly plummeted.

I know quite a few people who got tested last week (potential workplace exposure, etc) and single digit percentage came back positive.
cavscout96
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nthomas99 said:


Something is off.



Overall bad leadership coupled with bad messaging.

Not saying it's a conspiracy or agenda driven, but undoubtedly very poorly handled.
cavscout96
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I mean, when your very own English and Spanish graphics are inconsistent, as noted multiple times in this thread, you've got a problem.
nthomas99
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cavscout96 said:

nthomas99 said:


Something is off.



Overall bad leadership coupled with bad messaging.

Not saying it's a conspiracy or agenda driven, but undoubtedly very poorly handled.

Agreed, I'm not in the conspiracy club that there's some "deep state" agenda. I just find it terribly irresponsible to claim a 50% positivity rate with absolutely no context.
Rapier108
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Quote:

Is it possible positive cases are being tallied and reported prior to the corresponding testing? I know they are rushing to report positives to people before calling to report negatives. Is reporting to the county in any way tied to this?

Are the positives we are seeing lagging in from tests run weeks ago?

The trailing 7 day positivity rate is 50%. There's just no way. If 50% of people tested have coronavirus, we will all have it within a week and somehow hospitalization rate has amazingly plummeted.
I think it is a combination of most places not reporting total tests as quickly as they do positive tests, over all lag, and some level of incompetence by the BCHD.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
scd88
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I feel like we've hit a plateau of sorts. Hoping we have, anyway. We had a couple of 200 positives days; this week it's been around 100.

Not an insignificant drop IF, and that's a big IF, it holds and we see a decrease.
K2T2
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scd88 said:

I feel like we've hit a plateau of sorts. Hoping we have, anyway. We had a couple of 200 positives days; this week it's been around 100.

Not an insignificant drop IF, and that's a big IF, it holds and we see a decrease.


There have been no days with 200 positive cases. The most in one day was 145.
scd88
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Oh, OK. That's my bad as I am mixing up numbers. Sorry.
Rapier108
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Quote:

Total hospital occupancy 78%

Total ICU occupancy 51%
According to Abbott, this is "overwhelming." KBTX running with this, spewing their DOOM all over the place like always.

I need the eye role emoji.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
toolshed
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Rapier108 said:

Quote:

Total hospital occupancy 78%

Total ICU occupancy 51%
According to Abbott, this is "overwhelming." KBTX running with this, spewing their DOOM all over the place like always.

I need the eye role emoji.



Does someone have access to average occupancies say last fall, this time last year? Is that a reported number somewhere?
trouble
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There are some cities and systems that are overwhelmed. We aren't one of them.
AggieYankee1
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[We allow all opinions on this board but we try to keep posts with insulting tones to a minimum in order to keep the threads respectful and on topic. We edited this post and removed posts that replied to this post that were insulting to you in order to achieve that goal. Thank you. -Staff]

scd88
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Texas was one of the first to open up. As the saying goes, "the first on through always gets bloody."

Have mistakes been made? OK. Has there been a precedent to base the strategy off of? Nope. Are we learning and adapting? Sure seems like it. Our experience will absolutely help others. And for us, we will not ***** about being leaders and fall back on revisionist history. Learn and move forward.

That's ironic as the "others" continue to rail on us about how we have done things, and now adjusting. It's moronic. It's also highly political.
ontheedge
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scd88 said:

...That's ironic as the "others" continue to rail on us about how we have done things, and now adjusting. It's moronic. It's also highly political.
Healthcare was made political long ago. It is such a hot button issue for many and the poli's know it.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

Some rounding issues where the percentages given are finite enough to get exactly the same numbers...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
RodTidwell
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It just appears to me that these numbers that are being reported are conspicuously too consistent day to day. I would think there would be more randomness or variation.
new straw
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I think I understand what Yankees is saying, but it just comes across very "the sky is falling." It isn't. I work in one of the larger hospitals in a non ICU unit. I've been there about a year, and, other than a few weeks around Christmas and in April, we've been discharging one patient and admitting the next as soon as the room is clean. So, not much different from a year ago. It is a bit overwhelming, ensuring everyone along the way asked appropriate questions to ensure the patient SHOULDNT be a rule out covid. (When I'm not on the covid unit) Certain other diagnoses present with shortness of breath (heart failure is the one I see the most), so there is a heightened level of anxiety and trepidation when we are admitting some of those patients, as we are attempting to keep the covid patients in the designated covid areas, simply to avoid the spread to others it can impact drastically.

So, in a way, the system IS overwhelmed, but not necessarily by numbers, more that docs, nurses, admins, techs, EVS are all still figuring out a different way of treating, moving and evaluating patients. Sheer numbers are easy, but just wanted to help y'all understand the human side.

(Also, the new residents started Monday, so they are awesome, but still figuring out how to order what they need and not every test under the sun spread out by 5 minutes.)
EBrazosAg
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Spent 24 hr in a local hospital yesterday. No overwhelming observed. Busy at times. Challenges present. No overwhelming.
isitjustme
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Question: had a friend test positive for covid 2 weeks ago but never had symptoms. Got tested again this week b/c needs a negative result to go back to work. 2nd test comes back positive. Does the 2nd result add to the cases count? It shouldn't, of course, but data has been weird and that could be one more glitch.
new straw
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Glad you didn't see it! I think it's a bit rude to come back at a from the heart first hand account of what it's really like with the age old "I didn't see it, it isn't happening" response. Like I said, the sky isn't falling, but it's a stressful adjustment and that's it. It's constantly evolving, so I was just trying to help the board understand that while we still have room for everyone, it isn't simply numbers. I'm glad you had a good 24 hours and we're able to be discharged without any issues.
Expert Analysis
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trouble said:

There are some cities and systems that are overwhelmed. We aren't one of them.
which ones? I haven't seen much on Houston lately. Last I saw was the medical center indicating they were just fine even though they were near 100% and that that was typical for them.
new straw
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It shouldn't. We test people multiple times before DC ( any long term care, dialysis or prison requires a negative) they count as one until negative, then they're into recovered.
Rapier108
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Quote:

Does the 2nd result add to the cases count? It shouldn't, of course, but data has been weird and that could be one more glitch.
There have been reports that in some areas (not in Brazos County), they count every positive test as a new case.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Ratsa
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Does anyone know if the hospital bed occupancy rate that the health department recently started publishing refers to hospital beds vs. "staffed" hospital beds?

I spent this past weekend in CHI St. Joseph College Station with an elderly relative. While trying to find the exit, I walked through a large wing that seemed completely unused with no patients or staff in sight. I don't work in a medical field, so I have no idea how easy or hard it would be to staff an entire wing of a hospital if there were a need to use it. If those beds are being counted in the total beds available, but it would take a significant effort to provide adequate staff for the beds, then that might change my perception that we have plenty of hospital capacity.

I could tell that COVID has changed things significantly for the hospital staff, particularly with all of the PPE required. As far as Abbott's comments about our hospitals being overwhelmed, if the nurses and doctors at CHI College Station are overwhelmed, they did a great job of hiding it.
K2T2
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RodTidwell said:

It just appears to me that these numbers that are being reported are conspicuously too consistent day to day. I would think there would be more randomness or variation.
This def makes you sound like you've got a conspiracy theory, spill it.

I noticed how close the numbers were, and I figure that it's a bottleneck, the max number of results that be processed in a day, something like that. They prioritize notifying/recording positive cases, and there are only so many hours in the day.
nthomas99
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K2T2 said:

RodTidwell said:

It just appears to me that these numbers that are being reported are conspicuously too consistent day to day. I would think there would be more randomness or variation.
This def makes you sound like you've got a conspiracy theory, spill it.

I noticed how close the numbers were, and I figure that it's a bottleneck, the max number of results that be processed in a day, something like that. They prioritize notifying/recording positive cases, and there are only so many hours in the day.


Something along these lines is my best theory at what's going on.
trouble
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Expert Analysis said:

trouble said:

There are some cities and systems that are overwhelmed. We aren't one of them.
which ones? I haven't seen much on Houston lately. Last I saw was the medical center indicating they were just fine even though they were near 100% and that that was typical for them.


Austin and San Antonio are both feeling pretty strained.
trouble
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No. This is one of the few questions Sullivan had directly answered. Only the first positive is counted.
oklaunion
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ratsa:
Per your question, this was a portion of the report today:

Hospital Update - Brazos County (Staffed Bed Report)

Hospitals are at 84.0% staffed bed occupancy with 64 staffed beds available and 95 total beds available. (+2% increase since yesterday)

ICUs are at 90.0% staffed bed occupancy with 3 staffed beds available and 25 total beds available.

(+1% increase since yesterday)
toolshed
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I felt like he/ they were saying essentially the same thing as you, in terms of the hospital being overwhelmed. They stated they saw challenges present, didn't discount you statement that staff themselves may feel overwhelmed or disoriented with all the new rules, keeping patients safe and not contaminating non COVID patients. But I don't think they were discounting your sentiment.
Fitch
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