jabberwalkie09 said:

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Milwaukees Best Light said:

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Seven said:

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I saw that. The Euro and several others moved back east some, the GFS moved west and has Houston dead center now. ABC13 out of Houston this morning forecasted 5-10" for the area this weekend. Reading around if it stays disorganized looks like we will get some widespread rain from Victoria through Biloxi but if it forms it will just depend on where it goes. Most of the gulf waters are very warm right now, but there is a pocket of cooler water straight south of Pensacola which is right under the pressure system right now. Who the hell knows at this point. Looks like tomorrow morning will give us a lot more information

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Don't put much stock in what the Houston news forecasters say. They are all trying to out sensationalize each other. Some are worse than others, but collectively they are not much more than click bait. Stick to the space city weather guys, or Jeff Linder.

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Add to it that most people are basically saying that everything is in flux until the system actually hits the Gulf so we won't know until Wednesday, and it makes anything anyone has said the last two days rather meaningless.

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Oh trust me, the last ones I trust are the ones on TV. I will give credit to our local channel though, their coverage during Harvey once they realized that it got real was fantastic. No hype. Nothing sensationalized. Just straight facts and raw data. My wife and kids bolted north and watched the weather channel and were freaking out because of what all they were saying

I'm liking the newer projections better. Sucks for south LA/east Texas, they've been hit every bit as hard as we have over the same time span.

KRIS 6 news with Dead Wrong Dale does a great job keeping us up, from Corpus Christi but works well for Rockport.

Most recent post on spacecityweather.com still has it trending east, although they caution that until the center is formed predictions can swing drastically.

Getting it's act together. Gonna be a surprise for some folks in the morning.

https://m.imgur.com/nBbjI7F

Looks like one outlier still saying SE Texas, everything else saying Lake Charles East. Still no potential tropical storm warnings issued.

Those are the operational models. The ensemble models are painting another picture. The right answer is probably an average of all of them.

Euro


UKMET


ECMWF

According to https://spacecityweather.com/, its tracking slightly more west than yesterday, but still not as far west as Houston. Should have a real good idea by this evening.

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The one two sentence summary: Weather model data has shifted back a bit to the west with Barry, though the vast majority of output still keeps the center and worst impacts focused in Louisiana Friday through Sunday. Still, this would be close enough for at least some fringe impacts in Houston, and given that there is still some uncertainty, we cannot write off a further drift to the west, so be sure to check back in with us later today.

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That's a lot of Texas in those. I hadn't looked around much yet today

Check out what these guys have to say. They have been bullish on a Texas hit since last week. Have also been bullish on the possibility of a cat 1. They have upped that some to not rule out going stronger if it stays south. This bunch called Harvey and Michael within 20 miles several days out. I also like them because he explains the trends in the models and why they forecast like they do

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-daily-update-670?full

I wonder if that guy could talk a liiiiitle bit more about the pay wall.

:|

He's selling a service. I've considered subscribing. He usually doesn't talk about it as much as in this video

Seven said:

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He's selling a service. I've considered subscribing. He usually doesn't talk about it as much as in this video

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Bit of a conflict of interest, IMO. Predict a larger storm, predict landfall in a more populated area leads directly to more clicks/subscriptions.

I follow James spann
My parents have a condo in Destin and he's who we follow for weather there. He almost has a cult like following, very popular. Anyway, here's what he said today.

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WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS TO THE SOUTH: A disturbance over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, and will have a big impact on Alabama's weather. We don't expect much change in our weather situation today; hot and very humid with showers and storms forming this afternoon and tonight in scattered spots. Like yesterday, they will be strong with heavy rain, gusty winds, and very frequent lightning. The high today will be in the 90s, and a heat advisory is in effect for parts of Central and Northwest Alabama.

BIRTH OF BARRY: Here are the key messages on the tropical system forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico:

*The system should become Tropical Storm Barry by tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will drift westward through the northern Gulf, followed by a turn northward into Louisiana by Friday or Saturday. For now, we expect it to remain a tropical storm, but the Gulf water is very warm, and we will need to watch for any sign of rapid intensification.

*As you look at the various spaghetti and model plots, don't focus too much on the center line/track. The rain bands associated with the system will extend a few hundred miles to the east, on the wet side of the storm. Even when the center is south of the Louisiana coast, it will bring bands of heavy tropical rain as far east as the Florida Panhandle.

*For the Gulf Coast, the main impact will be heavy rain/flooding, rough surf/rip currents, gusty winds, and the possibility of a few brief waterspouts or tornadoes. I expect double red flags to be flying along he Central Gulf Coast tomorrow through at least Saturday because of the rip current danger. SPC has much of the coast in a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) through Friday because of the tornado/waterspout potential.

Rain amounts could exceed 5 inches between now and Saturday from Mobile and Gulf Shores to Pensacola and Destin, with 3-5 inches for Panama City Beach and Cape San Blas. But, there will be some good breaks in the rain along the way, and you might see the sun breaking out a few times.

*Conditions will slowly improve over the Gulf Coast from east to west by Sunday and early next week as Barry moves farther inland. Next week should feature routine summer weather on the coast with lots of sun and the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time.

*For inland Alabama, a deep layer of tropical moisture will move northward and cover the region tomorrow through the weekend as the state stays on the wet side of the system. This will mean occasional showers and thunderstorms with lower heat levels. Highs will drop into the 80s, and some places could hold in the 70s Sunday as Barry moves northward just to the west. Like the coast, there will be breaks in the rain, of course, and you could see a little sun at times. Average rain amounts over the northern half of Alabama should be in the 2-3 inch range from now through Sunday.

*For those asking if they should cancel a beach trip due to Tropical Storm Barry, I can't answer that since different people go to the beach for different reasons. It won't be a good experience if you are simply wanting to swim in the ocean or get lots of sun, but I am the kind of guy who loves a rainy day at the beach. And remember, there will be breaks in the rain.

NEXT WEEK: The weather gets back to routine summer pattern by mid-week with partly sunny days and "scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms". Highs rise back to around 90 over the latter half of the week.

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Irish_Man said:

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I follow James spann
My parents have a condo in Destin and he's who we follow for weather there. He almost has a cult like following, very popular. Anyway, here's what he said today.

Quote:

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WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS TO THE SOUTH: A disturbance over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, and will have a big impact on Alabama's weather. We don't expect much change in our weather situation today; hot and very humid with showers and storms forming this afternoon and tonight in scattered spots. Like yesterday, they will be strong with heavy rain, gusty winds, and very frequent lightning. The high today will be in the 90s, and a heat advisory is in effect for parts of Central and Northwest Alabama.

BIRTH OF BARRY: Here are the key messages on the tropical system forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico:

*The system should become Tropical Storm Barry by tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will drift westward through the northern Gulf, followed by a turn northward into Louisiana by Friday or Saturday. For now, we expect it to remain a tropical storm, but the Gulf water is very warm, and we will need to watch for any sign of rapid intensification.

*As you look at the various spaghetti and model plots, don't focus too much on the center line/track. The rain bands associated with the system will extend a few hundred miles to the east, on the wet side of the storm. Even when the center is south of the Louisiana coast, it will bring bands of heavy tropical rain as far east as the Florida Panhandle.

*For the Gulf Coast, the main impact will be heavy rain/flooding, rough surf/rip currents, gusty winds, and the possibility of a few brief waterspouts or tornadoes. I expect double red flags to be flying along he Central Gulf Coast tomorrow through at least Saturday because of the rip current danger. SPC has much of the coast in a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) through Friday because of the tornado/waterspout potential.

Rain amounts could exceed 5 inches between now and Saturday from Mobile and Gulf Shores to Pensacola and Destin, with 3-5 inches for Panama City Beach and Cape San Blas. But, there will be some good breaks in the rain along the way, and you might see the sun breaking out a few times.

*Conditions will slowly improve over the Gulf Coast from east to west by Sunday and early next week as Barry moves farther inland. Next week should feature routine summer weather on the coast with lots of sun and the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time.

*For inland Alabama, a deep layer of tropical moisture will move northward and cover the region tomorrow through the weekend as the state stays on the wet side of the system. This will mean occasional showers and thunderstorms with lower heat levels. Highs will drop into the 80s, and some places could hold in the 70s Sunday as Barry moves northward just to the west. Like the coast, there will be breaks in the rain, of course, and you could see a little sun at times. Average rain amounts over the northern half of Alabama should be in the 2-3 inch range from now through Sunday.

*For those asking if they should cancel a beach trip due to Tropical Storm Barry, I can't answer that since different people go to the beach for different reasons. It won't be a good experience if you are simply wanting to swim in the ocean or get lots of sun, but I am the kind of guy who loves a rainy day at the beach. And remember, there will be breaks in the rain.

NEXT WEEK: The weather gets back to routine summer pattern by mid-week with partly sunny days and "scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms". Highs rise back to around 90 over the latter half of the week.

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Yesssss! That's some good news right there. At least for me it is. The drive down is gonna pretty much suck though.

Not good
I think avg levee height in New Orleans is around 20ft

They will release the paywall stuff when it comes to hurricanes for free usually, at least the most important stuff. Their paywall stuff is geared towards a more targeted audience. They have forecasts specific for ag and other commercial industries. But when it comes to predicting and releasing forecasts they release info daily based on the popular models. Most people in Houston wouldn't care that they have a potential tropical system 2 weeks away but farmers make decisions based on that. I can see where you're coming from but they do a good job of not really selling their services and informing people that would care for free.

Haven't the Euro Models been way more accurate the last few years on predicting these things?

Yup. Flooding is pretty bad in parts of NOLA right now, We had 7" of rain in a short period of time this morning. An already high river level and predicted 3' storm surge add up to a bad situation.

Seven said:

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They will release the paywall stuff when it comes to hurricanes for free usually, at least the most important stuff. Their paywall stuff is geared towards a more targeted audience. They have forecasts specific for ag and other commercial industries. But when it comes to predicting and releasing forecasts they release info daily based on the popular models. Most people in Houston wouldn't care that they have a potential tropical system 2 weeks away but farmers make decisions based on that. I can see where you're coming from but they do a good job of not really selling their services and informing people that would care for free.

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I got you. Thanks for pointing them out.

This one just feels like it's going to follow the euros and land south of Houston have no real knowledge to add just a gut feeling

Weatherbell guys are good. My dad has a premium account with them and I think my company used their service as well until we got in-house guys. Joe Bas-tardi (apparently texags doesn't like his name) lived in College Station for a while growing up I believe.

That's a few models now pulling it west. Eric Berger still sticking with LA hit but he's the only one left and he is hedging his bets now

Didn't the Euro update and move it East?

spadilly said:

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Hurricane watch issued from NOLA to Cameron LA. Everyone except two places are going all in on LA now. With what NOLA got today I'd almost say go ahead and bring it more west and give those guys some much needed relief. NHC shifted east also just now

I keep reading LA as Lower Alabama.

I have some friends that were supposed to fly down and fish in Rockport this weekend. What do y'all think the odds are they won't be able to fly out of corpus on Saturday evening?

ATX_AG_08 said:

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I have some friends that were supposed to fly down and fish in Rockport this weekend. What do y'all think the odds are they won't be able to fly out of corpus on Saturday evening?

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At this point, .01%. No real concern down here. It'd have to shift WAYYY west before anyone around here gets worried.

Edit to change **** to shift

Joe *******i at Weatherbell is very accurate in his predications. He called Harvey 20 days before it made landfall. He is calling this a Cat 1 or Cat 2 similar to the path of Alicia in 1983. He thinks it will hit between Houston and Beaumont. He is saying if it stays over the warm gulf and moves west it will be a Cat 3 and hit between Houston and Corpus.