Get yo plywood and bleach.

Going to Tampa next week. So this could be interesting.

Heading to Santa Rosa Beach on Saturday. This thing will be gone by then though, if it even turns in to anything.

Most everything has it going west. Should be fine in Tampa.

Seven,
Friday is fast from everything I've been reading. If it were to make it to Texas it's looking like early next week.

Seven said:

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Yesterday afternoon it was New Orleans. Last night it was Lafayette. This morning it's lake Charles/Beaumont. 00Z Euro run made a big shift west and upped the strength, other models are slowly following. I'm in Victoria and have been watching this since mid week last week. My prediction right now is a strong TS or weak Cat 1 hitting Friday evening somewhere between Palacios and Beaumont

Crazy that a cold front over Tennessee will drop down, pop a TS and then have it swing back and hit the coast.

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Mike's Weather and Space City Weather are still thinking maybe 10%-15% for any Texas impacts - this thing is likely heading east. I really, really, really hope so anyway.

Anywhere from NO to Corpus right now, with an 80% chance of developing

10-15% is way up from 1% a few days ago. Hopefully the current models hold and it won't be a big deal. All I'm pointing out is it is trending west more so with every run. WeatherBell Analytics is very bullish on a Texas Cat 1 hit. Those guys called Harvey and Michael several days out within 20 miles

Maybe I got confused with formation? Seems like a few guys I've read and listened to today were saying saturdayish.

Reconfirmed of landfall Saturday afternoon. Where did you see early next week? The more sources we have to pull together the better it will be

Seven said:

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10-15% is way up from 1% a few days ago. Hopefully the current models hold and it won't be a big deal. All I'm pointing out is it is trending west more so with every run. WeatherBell Analytics is very bullish on a Texas Cat 1 hit. Those guys called Harvey and Michael several days out within 20 miles

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True. But i'll focus on the larger of the percentages for now, because that is what I"m hoping happens.

I hope you're correct

Just in time to ruin Saturday boating plans.

Getting my hurricane screens installed today and tomorrow...good timing I guess!

If they stop selling wind storm insurance once a system enters the gulf, think they will be obligated to still sell it to you, because technically there isn't anything in the gulf?
Doesn't matter to me, cause we are already set, but curious how they will spin this to screw over home owners.

FEMA flood is a 30 day wait...not sure about windstorm.

Seven said:

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I hope you're correct

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Me too. But it's only hope, nothing more than that.

Mike's page updated with some more westerly projections, so we may be fooked again.

12z Euro put it right on Beaumont Saturday afternoon. NOAA also put a second low pressure system between Yucatn and Texas. That's another 20-30 miles west for 92L and more spaghetti models getting west of Houston now

Care to share where you are seeing spaghetti models already?

I love watching these things and tracking them, but the major weather sites don't have models yet.

Edit... Nevermind, a quick google search found them.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

What brad06 said. Mikes page can be tough to navigate on a phone and is better on a computer. There is a lot packed on there but once you get used to it it is very helpful. I use this for most raw data and there are two other blogs that I follow to get forecasts and understand trends and try to put together a bigger picture. Space city weather and the daily updates with weatherbell analytics are really good sources for knowledge. Plus twitter. Follow tropical tidbits and hurricane app on twitter, space city has a twitter so does weatherbell

Are you looking at the two-day graphical outlook? That 'second low' is the information for the one disturbance over the SE (the X). There's only the one disturbance we're concerned with for the Gulf right now.

metrag06 said:

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Are you looking at the two-day graphical outlook? That 'second low' is the information for the one disturbance over the SE (the X). There's only the one disturbance we're concerned with for the Gulf right now.

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Yes thats the one I was looking at.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

If that is the same storm why is it on the map twice in two different spots. The one I've been reading on and talking about is 92L which is over Georgia right now. I'm confused why they would show two possible storms if it is the same thing

Seven said:

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metrag06 said:

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Are you looking at the two-day graphical outlook? That 'second low' is the information for the one disturbance over the SE (the X). There's only the one disturbance we're concerned with for the Gulf right now.

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Yes thats the one I was looking at.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

If that is the same storm why is it on the map twice in two different spots. The one I've been reading on and talking about is 92L which is over Georgia right now. I'm confused why they would show two possible storms if it is the same thing

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They're not showing two possible storms. The X in the 2-day outlook is the location, they put the percentage in a weird place by Yucatan. The 5-day is the same storm.

Well that's weird. But ok

In for hopefully a big nothing burger. I don't want that rain.

Last night's models are trending back to the east. Still a long way out but generally a positive development for Houston area.

Quote:

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The one sentence summary: Thunderstorms are developing in the northeast Gulf that will ultimately help determine where 92L goes and how strong it becomes, and while overnight guidance did shift back more to the east (focused in Louisiana), there remain a number of potential outcomes we should be prepared for.

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https://spacecityweather.com/070919-latest-late-week-barry-risk-current-heat/

I saw that. The Euro and several others moved back east some, the GFS moved west and has Houston dead center now. ABC13 out of Houston this morning forecasted 5-10" for the area this weekend. Reading around if it stays disorganized looks like we will get some widespread rain from Victoria through Biloxi but if it forms it will just depend on where it goes. Most of the gulf waters are very warm right now, but there is a pocket of cooler water straight south of Pensacola which is right under the pressure system right now. Who the hell knows at this point. Looks like tomorrow morning will give us a lot more information

Doesn't give weather data per se, but still awesome to watch and play around with. Can mess with all sorts of parameters and zoom levels.

https://earth.nullschool.net/

Milwaukees Best Light said:

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Seven said:

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I saw that. The Euro and several others moved back east some, the GFS moved west and has Houston dead center now. ABC13 out of Houston this morning forecasted 5-10" for the area this weekend. Reading around if it stays disorganized looks like we will get some widespread rain from Victoria through Biloxi but if it forms it will just depend on where it goes. Most of the gulf waters are very warm right now, but there is a pocket of cooler water straight south of Pensacola which is right under the pressure system right now. Who the hell knows at this point. Looks like tomorrow morning will give us a lot more information

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Don't put much stock in what the Houston news forecasters say. They are all trying to out sensationalize each other. Some are worse than others, but collectively they are not much more than click bait. Stick to the space city weather guys, or Jeff Linder.

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Add to it that most people are basically saying that everything is in flux until the system actually hits the Gulf so we won't know until Wednesday, and it makes anything anyone has said the last two days rather meaningless.

I assume the fishing will be good right before it hits.