***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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jbeaman88
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In reply to Ducks4brkfast • 12:29p, 6/6/26
Ducks4brkfast said:
jbeaman88 said:
5Amp said:
Trump has a choke hold on Iran and is not letting go, a slow kill in the making.
What concessions by Iran to US demands have you seen that indicate they are feeling such a choke hold? I have seen no concessions.


They were going to run out of oil storage in 2 weeks eights weeks go bro
Again, how does that show that POTUS has them in a choke hold? If he did, I would have expected them to have started to concede to at least one demand. Maybe I'm missing one, who knows?
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Fitch
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In reply to Flavius Agximus • 2:48p, 6/6/26
Flavius Agximus said:
Ducks4brkfast said:
jbeaman88 said:
5Amp said:
Trump has a choke hold on Iran and is not letting go, a slow kill in the making.

What concessions by Iran to US demands have you seen that indicate they are feeling such a choke hold? I have seen no concessions.


They were going to run out of oil storage in 2 weeks eights weeks go bro

Supposedly they were exporting some via Caspian and land routes, albeit substantially less than normal. Don't have the article link to hand, unfortunately.

Edit to add some references:

Iran Looks to the Region to Blunt the U.S. Blockade - The Soufan Center
Iran Is Using Alternative Routes To Bypass US Naval Blockade
Iranian oil exports fall to lowest level in six years, data shows | Reuters

The articles point out that May exports were less than 300K barrels per day, down from 1.9 MM prewar, and that they have 147 million barrels in floating storage. The alternative routes have bought them some time but eventually will reach a crisis as storage limits are reached. So maybe the blockade strategy works if we are patient enough.
Oil exec interviewed on Squawk Box a little ways back noted that Iran actually has some very good engineers and they will be able to nudge the capacity limits somewhat. One speculative idea he put out there was to intentionally light the wells on fire or flare off excess supply to prevent catastrophic pressure drops from shutting in the wells. I'm just a dumb finance guy so the novelty stuck with me.



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Col. Steve Austin
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In reply to YouBet • 5:47p, 6/6/26
YouBet said:
agent-maroon said:
Whatever happened to the limited oil storage volume issue that was going to force them to cap their wells? Seem to recall it was "only days remaining" like weeks ago. And also recall that they were dumping the oil into the ocean just to avoid the well shutdown. Any insights on any of this?

And their catastrophic water issues that would cause a relocation of Tehran. Both issues seem to have disappeared unless there is such a comms blackout that we have no idea what's happening in country.

There are quite a few articles regarding the water crisis in Iran. Those issues haven't gone away. Just do a Google search of "Iran water crisis". Moving the capital has been discussed but that would be a monumental undertaking over quite a number of years. Not sure if that's even doable.

Regardless, water shortages will be felt by the people, not the IRGC.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/water-not-oil-is-the-middle-easts-most-precious-commodity/
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Col. Steve Austin • 6:15p, 6/6/26
Where would they move the capital to? Any other location is going to lack water as well.
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ErnestEndeavor
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In reply to agent-maroon • 1:21a, 6/7/26
Proposal was to build a new city along the coast in the Makran area, east of Hormuz.
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txaggie_08
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8:28a, 6/7/26
Sounds like Israel and Hezbollah back at it this morning.



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YouBet
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8:41a, 6/7/26
Lebanon wants Hez out so that even being part of any Iranian negotiations is nonsensical. Lebanon is its own country. Whatever Lebanon wants to do should be between them and Israel, if they so choose. If Israel can help rid them of terrorists then more power to them.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 9:33a, 6/7/26
ErnestEndeavor said:
Proposal was to build a new city along the coast in the Makran area, east of Hormuz.

Not trying to be an ass, but there appears to be less water in this area than around Tehran. At least from an amateur look on google maps. Is there a reservoir somewhere out there that I missed?
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txaggie_08
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In reply to agent-maroon • 9:44a, 6/7/26
Desalination plants
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agent-maroon
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 9:49a, 6/7/26
Existing or planned?
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txaggie_08
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10:55a, 6/7/26
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Deerdude
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11:08a, 6/7/26
Giving missile locations to Israel? Good deal.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Deerdude • 11:13a, 6/7/26
Deerdude said:
Giving missile locations to Israel? Good deal.

Trump said on MTP they know where all this stuff is already.
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Jock 07
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2:07p, 6/7/26
IDF reporting missiles launched toward Israel from Iran
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Dan Scott
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2:08p, 6/7/26
Iran launches at Israel. Here we go again

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Dan Scott
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2:09p, 6/7/26
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Dan Scott
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2:18p, 6/7/26
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SA68AG
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2:24p, 6/7/26
What is it going to take for Trump to realize peace will only be achieved by overwhelming power ?

It's time for the cease fire to end.
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P.U.T.U
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2:28p, 6/7/26
Third wave of missiles headed to northern Israel.
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YouBet
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In reply to SA68AG • 2:29p, 6/7/26
SA68AG said:
What is it going to take for Trump to realize peace will only be achieved by overwhelming power ?

It's time for the cease fire to end.


He said late last week that the only way he resumes the war is if US servicemen get killed by Iran.
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Dan Scott
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2:35p, 6/7/26
Weekend oil jumping, up 7% weekend market just dumped after being up all weekend.

Trump doesnt want the fight. Bibi wants the fight. Trump doesn't want Iran to turn into Gaza. Bibi doesn't care if Iran turns into Gaza.

That's the difference.
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samurai_science
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In reply to Dan Scott • 2:45p, 6/7/26
Dan Scott said:
Weekend oil jumping, up 7% weekend market just dumped after being up all weekend.

Trump doesnt want the fight. Bibi wants the fight. Trump doesn't want Iran to turn into Gaza. Bibi doesn't care if Iran turns into Gaza.

That's the difference.


That won't happen unless a civil war happens
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Dan Scott
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2:50p, 6/7/26
Starting to sound like these were love taps. Wouldn't be surprised if this was all planned and communicated before the event.
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Rockdoc
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2:53p, 6/7/26
IRGC doesn't want a deal or truce. They don't care about Iran's general population.
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MaxPower
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 2:56p, 6/7/26
txaggie_08 said:
Sounds like Israel and Hezbollah back at it this morning.



Why are these guys so obsessed with Lebanon when they are staring a curb stomping right in their own backyard?
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LMCane
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2:57p, 6/7/26
One KC-135 over Jordan One KC-46 over Jordan in trail

no aircraft over Kuwait except for one Kuwait Air Force C-130

Qatar issues NOTAM to avoid airspace

Israel early warning of missile launches across all of Northern Israel and Golan Heights
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boulderaggie
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:57p, 6/7/26
I agree. It's not the 'person' in charge, it's their belief system. Next man up has the same beliefs.
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LMCane
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In reply to MaxPower • 2:58p, 6/7/26
Because the Islamic Republic has supported, trained and supplied the terrorists in Hizbullah for 40 years

and does not want to see them taken off the board by the IDF
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P.U.T.U
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3:00p, 6/7/26

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Dan Scott
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In reply to LMCane • 3:04p, 6/7/26
LMCane said:
Dan Scott said:
Weekend oil jumping, up 7% weekend market just dumped after being up all weekend.

Trump doesnt want the fight. Bibi wants the fight. Trump doesn't want Iran to turn into Gaza. Bibi doesn't care if Iran turns into Gaza.

That's the difference.

This is a military thread discussing events occurring

not a political thread where you are guessing at what TRUMP WANTS


I stated a fact. It's what the commander in chief of the strongest military ever wants. He doesn't want the fight, he wants to negotiate a stop.

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LMCane
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3:06p, 6/7/26
USAF KC-46 Pegasus after taking off from Tel Aviv is now over the Arabian Gulf

that is unusual
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Dan Scott
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In reply to LMCane • 3:08p, 6/7/26
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LMCane
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In reply to Dan Scott • 3:09p, 6/7/26
Dan Scott said:

strangely that incident is "over" as far as incoming missile warnings

it could be the IDF and USAF shot down every incoming missile
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DannyDuberstein
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3:10p, 6/7/26
The IRGC keeps their power there by projecting strength to their own people. They also have a deeply entrenched terror network in Lebanon and other locations they will not stop supporting. They will rattle and stir up a little crap, but it doesn't necessarily mean much.
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P.U.T.U
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3:13p, 6/7/26
Trump has been a ton less aggressive after his visit to China. I wonder if anything happened on that trip.

As one of my Israeli friends has told me over and over, "Israel has been and always will be on their own". They can't rely on outside support nor should their policy choices.
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