LMCane said:

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the Iranian desert is larger than the Iraqi desert

hopefully will soon be some expeditionary Israeli airfields built between Bushehr and Teheran

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Big difference between doing that in Iraq who lacks much capacity to resist it even if they wanted to and Iran

Construction scaffold maybe, welded in place?

Iran 'frighteningly close' to a nuclear weapon, Energy secretary warns

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WASHINGTON Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned Wednesday that Iran is "frighteningly close" to developing weapons-grade enriched uranium.

Speaking to lawmakers on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Wright stressed that Iran's enriched uranium, which President Trump is deadset on confiscating, puts the regime just weeks away from the threshold needed to get a nuke.

"They are a small number of weeks away to enrich that to weapons-grade uranium. There's still a weaponization process that happens after that, but they're quite close," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

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MagnumLoad said:

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Iran will not change. Crush them now. All ports, all airports or airfields; all highway and rail bridges; all fuell supply to power plants, all power substations; all banks. It is the only way. Trumps needs to understand that soon. Don't let this drag out.

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Add the remaining military assets to the list along with current leaders.

Do all that while keeping the blockade in place.

Oh yeah open the strait

If you do all that there really in no reason to negotiate right away, especially if the strait is open to a degree. At that point you are in position to just mow the grass on the uranium and nuke facilities until you figure out a solution

Death wish indeed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-lawmaker-warns-tehran-could-enrich-uranium-to-weapons-grade-if-attacked-again/ar-AA231iR4?cvid=6a04d4977d7c4e968fc6bbf62135474d&ei=24

SeaAg010607 said:

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There is a lot going on here that we aren't up to speed on. Would we all like a quick resolution to this? Yes, but how is the issue and what are the consequences.

Any middle eastern country could push Iran over the edge at this point as their economic future is tied up in one island that is exposed and generally hard to easily and meaningfully rearm without everyone seeing it. No one needs to invade, it's a fat juicy target in waiting.

The question is why has no one done it. We now generally know what Iran can do and is willing to do. Time is on our side. It allows us and Irans neighbors to re arm, identify targets and develop a new plan and leaders that we could or are working with. While we get stronger, they get weaker. We've done 2 bombing campaigns. If we need to do a third, it will happen.

What are the risks? A collapsed Iran means a mass exodus of people/weapons and the neighbors don't want that. It means a power vacuum and rogue attacks on the straight for a while until every thing that floats is sunk. - we would need a lot of drones and a lot of surveillance. Shipping companies aren't going to go back into the gulf unless things are very locked down so there isn't a good short term fix until we have EVERY boat target/assigned and ready to be taken out which will be a while.

Most importantly, if Iran collapses, it will make it much more difficult to achieve the stated goal which is to secure / destroy the nuclear program. There is a risk that we don't have 100% knowledge as to the extent of the program and location of the enriched uranium. This needs to be fully verified, but even if it's in one spot that is under a mountain, we would have to send an army in there to get it out as the first fanatic group that can get it or control the area around it wins.

We need a command structure in Iran that we can work with that has the ability to project power and that takes time, but time also strengthens those that are working with us and working against those that have designated themselves to the top of the kill chain.

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We need to destroy their infrastructure regardless of your reasons

This is war and being brutal is how you win. You think the people in Iran want electricity more than not being killed, jailed, raped and beaten? Naw

The country in chaos or "civil war" actually makes it easier to send a team in to get the uranium. Think about it..

bobbranco said:

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Death wish indeed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-lawmaker-warns-tehran-could-enrich-uranium-to-weapons-grade-if-attacked-again/ar-AA231iR4?cvid=6a04d4977d7c4e968fc6bbf62135474d&ei=24

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I am not by any means familiar with the ins and outs of enriching uranium, but consistent with Secretary Wright's comments the time to get from 60% to 90%+ only takes weeks where it takes substantially longer to get to 60% (i.e. its not linear).

To you point, they seem to have a death wish. Almost certain they are the "source" for the NYT article claiming they have restored operations to 30 of 33 missile launchers along the SoH.

Cue the Monty Python Black Knight...

Enrichment is 1 od three obstacles.
2nd is the device to actually make it a bomb.
3rd is delivery.
Extra obstacle:
4th is shrinking everything down to place in a ballastic missile.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Enrichment is 1 od three obstacles.
2nd is the device to actually make it a bomb.
3rd is delivery.
Extra obstacle:
4th is shrinking everything down to place in a ballastic missile.

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Evidently we had enough intel that we believe steps 2 through 4 would happen in short order.

Also, the military action is also about long-term security for the SoH and ending a regime that has attacked us and our allies and interests for 47 years.

AgEngineer72 said:

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bobbranco said:

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Death wish indeed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-lawmaker-warns-tehran-could-enrich-uranium-to-weapons-grade-if-attacked-again/ar-AA231iR4?cvid=6a04d4977d7c4e968fc6bbf62135474d&ei=24

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My first reaction is skepticism- if they could do it that fast they would anyway. Regardless whether we bomb again. Their goal all along was to create one- why would they pause now if they can do it.

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I'm not skeptical. They want to be bombed and killed. Crazy Shia.

2026NCAggies said:

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bobbranco said:

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Death wish indeed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-lawmaker-warns-tehran-could-enrich-uranium-to-weapons-grade-if-attacked-again/ar-AA231iR4?cvid=6a04d4977d7c4e968fc6bbf62135474d&ei=24

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Iranians are all over the place. For weeks they were saying they would give it up but a third party would need to get it, 2 or 3 days ago they told people it is too deep and buried that they couldn't get to it and we would have to do it.

Now they are saying they might enrich it if we bomb, meaning they can get to it.......

You just cannot trust these clowns or anything they are saying

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Well they are FOS

The Fatwa Gazzette say it's true, then it must be true.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but rather the order of operations. We need to be able to strike with overwhelming force precisely so as to be able to limit any response as much as possible. With drones, and small attack boats, this is a little like Gulf War 1. The challenge is If they manage to inflict significant damage in and around the neighborhood to various ports and refineries, they still effectively shut the straight down for a protracted period of time which needs to be avoided. Preparation is often even more important than actually carrying out the attack itself.

So what's the update on clearing a path in the straight with our minesweepers? How is it that we can't follow these stories once they are two weeks old. You could probably list 10 more forgotten storylines

Timberwolf said:

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So what's the update on clearing a path in the straight with our minesweepers? How is it that we can't follow these stories once they are two weeks old. You could probably list 10 more forgotten storylines

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Pakistan asked us to pause our Naval operations in the Strait pending further negotiations.

Iranian or Pakistani leaders? Asking for a friend.

But I don't think we will see much for another 24 hours and Trump is headed home. Initiating major military ops whilst in China seems suboptimal.

The amount of restraint we are showing is astounding. Especially now with Iran reportedly sending out 300+ fast boats in a swarm today asserting more control.

Timberwolf said:

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The amount of restraint we are showing is astounding. Especially now with Iran reportedly sending out 300+ fast boats in a swarm today asserting more control.

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I hope we're tracking their point of origin so that we can destroy them.

Maybe Xi can figure out a way to make the Iranians open the Strait. I think he's more likely to get it done than Trump.

NC2001 said:

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Timberwolf said:

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The amount of restraint we are showing is astounding. Especially now with Iran reportedly sending out 300+ fast boats in a swarm today asserting more control.

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I hope we're tracking their point of origin so that we can destroy them.

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I'd want to light up any significant building or storage area along the entire coast. Smoking rubble.

The Iranians have deployed hundreds of speed boats in the SOH each day this week.

I thought they didn't have a Navy but obviously they have some capability. Those boats should be blown up the minute they appear. Iran got their ass kicked but then we stopped and they are winning the battle right now. IMO we need to take the gloves off and stop negotiating since they clearly aren't acting in any sort of good faith. And who expects them to? It's troubling that we seem to be getting played by them.

Al jazeera has various updates on the strikes/discussions in/around the strait of hormuz (and Lebanon). Aragchi is at the brics meeting which is interesting as India is hosting/complaining about the status of the strait.

Quote:

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Here's are the latest developments:

• A commercial ship off the UAE port of Fujairah has been seized and is headed towards Iranian waters, the UK's Maritime Trade Operations Centre says.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi says the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels but only those that cooperate with Iranian authorities.
• Presidents Trump and Xi, meeting in Beijing, agree on the need for Hormuz to reopen for the free flow of energy, the White House says.
• A Hezbollah-fired drone slammed into Israel close to the border with Lebanon, wounding several Israeli civilians, as deadly attacks by both sides continue.
• Israeli air raids continue across southern Lebanon before planned talksbetween Lebanese and Israeli officials in the United States later today.

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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NC2001 said:

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Timberwolf said:

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The amount of restraint we are showing is astounding. Especially now with Iran reportedly sending out 300+ fast boats in a swarm today asserting more control.

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I hope we're tracking their point of origin so that we can destroy them.

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I'd want to light up any significant building or storage area along the entire coast. Smoking rubble.

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All 1120 miles of the southern coastline? That might take a while.

[Do not bypass obscenity filters -- Staff]

Iran has to be spanked and spanked hard over their strait antics. And I mean now. Don't let them get further emboldened.

docb said:

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Maybe Xi can figure out a way to make the Iranians open the Strait. I think he's more likely to get it done than Trump.

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China has been trying with no luck, hell a Iranian Representative even visited China a week ago and nothing came of it

Iran actually fired at one of the Chinese ships

I do not think Iran is willing to listen to anybody regarding the strait. That is literally their only card in all of this.

Which is why idk why we have not resumed the mission to get it open.

We should be blowing away all the fast boats we can see but we let 300 of them in the water? WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That was a HUGE opportunity to make a huge blow against them and we let it pass WTF

2026NCAggies said:

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docb said:

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Maybe Xi can figure out a way to make the Iranians open the Strait. I think he's more likely to get it done than Trump.

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China has been trying with no luck, hell a Iranian Representative even visited China a week ago and nothing came of it

Iran actually fired at one of the Chinese ships

I do not think Iran is willing to listen to anybody regarding the strait. That is literally their only card in all of this.

Which is why idk why we have not resumed the mission to get it open.

We should be blowing away all the fast boats we can see but we let 300 of them in the water? WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That was a HUGE opportunity to make a huge blow against them and we let it pass WTF

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How many fast boats do they have? If only a few hundred, your strategy has merit.

If they have 30,000, it's a waste of time and ammo.