2026NCAggies said:

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docb said:

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Maybe Xi can figure out a way to make the Iranians open the Strait. I think he's more likely to get it done than Trump.

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China has been trying with no luck, hell a Iranian Representative even visited China a week ago and nothing came of it

Iran actually fired at one of the Chinese ships

I do not think Iran is willing to listen to anybody regarding the strait. That is literally their only card in all of this.

Which is why idk why we have not resumed the mission to get it open.

We should be blowing away all the fast boats we can see but we let 300 of them in the water? WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That was a HUGE opportunity to make a huge blow against them and we let it pass WTF

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I can only assume one of two things (or why not both):

1. Trump is hoping to get firm commitment from China to lean on Iran after this summit so he was waiting to see outcome of this. We don't know if Xi actually leaned on Iran when they visited earlier.

2. He's still trying to avoid a confrontation with Congress over War Powers Act and all of the political fallout that would entail.

3. There is no urgent need from a US perspective to reopen the SoH or to resume bombing Iran.

The WPA is irrelevant. Even the Dems have let it go.

Certainly whilst in China and discussing Iran there was going to extend the pause.

With China visit wrapping up and heading into a weekend, could we see some activity? Maybe. But there does not seem to be great urgency on relighting the candle.

sts7049 said:

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There is no urgent need from a US perspective to reopen the SoH

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it is very much in the US and other countries' best interest to get it open ASAP

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I can see a strategy of allowing our refrain to embolden them and expose more fast boats. We can't kill them if we can not find them and I guarantee that we now know where they were hiding them.

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Which is why idk why we have not resumed the mission to get it open.

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Maybe we are going to let the other ME countries do it? That would be best for us, but I have my doubts that will happen.

food prices are on the rise already because of high fuel costs. Just wait until the high prices of fertilizer start hitting.

flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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Quote:

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There is no urgent need from a US perspective to reopen the SoH

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it is very much in the US and other countries' best interest to get it open ASAP

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Could Iraq build a pipeline similar to Saudi to the west?

Can UAE build one through Oman.

I know that won't happen overnight but you can't let Iran hold this many countries hostage whenever they want.

Bondag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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Quote:

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There is no urgent need from a US perspective to reopen the SoH

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it is very much in the US and other countries' best interest to get it open ASAP

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Could Iraq build a pipeline similar to Saudi to the west?

Can UAE build one through Oman.

I know that won't happen overnight but you can't let Iran hold this many countries hostage whenever they want.

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yes these have all been planned for decades but were not cost effective

now they are cost effective

Netanyahu literally spoke about pipelines a year ago from Saudi to Haifa Port

LMCane said:

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Bondag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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Quote:

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There is no urgent need from a US perspective to reopen the SoH

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it is very much in the US and other countries' best interest to get it open ASAP

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Could Iraq build a pipeline similar to Saudi to the west?

Can UAE build one through Oman.

I know that won't happen overnight but you can't let Iran hold this many countries hostage whenever they want.

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yes these have all been planned for decades but were not cost effective

now they are cost effective

Netanyahu literally spoke about pipelines a year ago from Saudi to Haifa Port

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You can get pipe in the ground, or under sea, pretty quick given the right resources. There would be no shortage of dollars available for those projects/resources. Drop in the bucket when compared to dollars not realized due to SOH stalemate.

Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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Cost benefit and missile supply numbers? Optics of successfully taking out pesky gofast boats while not receiving damage to show the world they can trust the US presence and encouraging other nations to join in by demonstrating the minimal actual risk?

BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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I've not figured that out one bit. Between the MQ-4's, E-3/2 aircraft (plus an Aussie E-7 I think?), and satellites, plus knowing they really have no night operations capability, I just can't wrap my head around how they can put out small boat swarms that last more than 10 minutes on the water.

We have the resources available to quickly identify and destroy these pests. They aren't in the middle of some big fishing operations.

Tailgate88 said:

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I'm a Trump guy too, and frustrated too, but I have noticed he always seems to be a couple steps ahead. I am hoping and praying this is another of those times. The blockade is hurting them and the longer it goes on the more frustrated the populace will get, and hopefully that encourages them to rise up when the time is right.

But no bombs are dropping until AF1 is safely out of Chinese air space, so we have a few days to wait for the next big move I think.

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Trump has repeatedly been multiple steps ahead. I don't think being on AF1 in Chinese airspace will stop him. I think the chances of doing this in Chinese airspace are higher, just to prove a point.

nortex97 said:

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BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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I've not figured that out one bit. Between the MQ-4's, E-3/2 aircraft (plus an Aussie E-7 I think?), and satellites, plus knowing they really have no night operations capability, I just can't wrap my head around how they can put out small boat swarms that last more than 10 minutes on the water.

We have the resources available to quickly identify and destroy these pests. They aren't in the middle of some big fishing operations.

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Probably because A-10's way cooler to watch.

I think it's just the optics and not any capability concern.

To be honest, the ability to act if needed would seem to me to be the real reason Hegseth tagged along (and is with POTUS a lot, like a lot).

It may seem petty, but I think there is something to not initiating military action when on a state visit to a country who is allied (however loosely) with the target of your attacks.

BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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We have sent a few to the sea floor in isolated situations from what I have seen. We have not yet seen kinetic action against the large groups that are being sent out (hundreds by reports), to my knowledge.

I wonder if we have ROE that make it difficult to get clearance on a surge of 50, 100, 200 boats that randomly deploy and move in tight groups? The first thing that popped in my mind is the possibility of crewing 10% - 20% of those vessels with fisherman, wakeboarders, or any non-military personnel for that matter.

Those devils would love to feed our media that story and those images. Our media would love it too.

Just a thought. Im sure some of our military folks have a better understanding of how ROE works in this context.

[Stop bypassing obscenity filters -- Staff]

BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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Taking these boats out would be easy. There are scores of videos of us doing just that to drug boats. This is a matter of choice.

Personally, I think we are still playing the 'ceasefire' game while everyone gets to chew on the situation a bit. But strategically, I think we are just doing a rope-a-dope on Iran in the Straight. Let them run around in their ineffective speedboats and feel emboldened by the lack of an American response. But we are watching, waiting, and giving them opportunity to make mistakes in their desperate need to show the world how they are 'winning' while not actually achieving a darn thing that we aren't allowing them to. When the time comes to deal with this joke of a navy, it will be swift and decisive.

Yea I was not sure where folks are getting 300 fast boats daily. Seems Iran has about a 3 to 4 boat / missile / rock capacity to attack these days.

I too question where this is coming from. I haven't seen anyone source this 'fact'.

American Hardwood said:

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BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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Taking these boats out would be easy. There are scores of videos of us doing just that to drug boats. This is a matter of choice.

Personally, I think we are still playing the 'ceasefire' game while everyone gets to chew on the situation a bit. But strategically, I think we are just doing a rope-a-dope on Iran in the Straight. Let them run around in their ineffective speedboats and feel emboldened by the lack of an American response. But we are watching, waiting, and giving them opportunity to make mistakes in their desperate need to show the world how they are 'winning' while not actually achieving a darn thing that we aren't allowing them to. When the time comes to deal with this joke of a navy, it will be swift and decisive.

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Seems likely that we are using the drones to follow them back to the shore and then seeing where they travel from there.

LMCane said:

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BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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who says that we aren't?!

other than dumb idiots who have no concept of what is actually happening 7000 miles away

CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper LITERALLY just stated in the past day

that they are seeing "only 2 or 3 fast boats from Iran every day now"

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To be fair, there are images circulating of large fleets being deployed. Maybe not recently but certainly in the last week or so. In the current media environment I do not think having a misunderstanding of what is happening 7000 miles away makes one an idiot.

If you have military experience, or private sector experience for that matter, that enables you to see through some of the BS, that is great. You should share. I think that is precisely what they were requesting.

ETA:

1/2 🔴 IRGC Speedboat Activity — Strait of Hormuz | May 13

Windward Multi-Source Intelligence across the five monitored zones show ~342 speedboats today. This represents a step-down from yesterday’s 454, but remains elevated compared with the 27–230 range observed between May… pic.twitter.com/UwQVB864L0

— Windward (@WindwardAI) May 13, 2026

No clue if WindwardAI is reliable but here is what they have to say about it.

AgFan1974 said:

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LMCane said:

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BlueSmoke said:

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Captain Obvious response here - but why are we not parking a dozen Reaper Drones with Hellfire's above the waterways to intercept any small boats that pop up.

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who says that we aren't?!

other than dumb idiots who have no concept of what is actually happening 7000 miles away

CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper LITERALLY just stated in the past day

that they are seeing "only 2 or 3 fast boats from Iran every day now"

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To be fair, there are images circulating of large fleets being deployed. Maybe not recently but certainly in the last week or so. In the current media environment I do not think having a misunderstanding of what is happening 7000 miles away makes one an idiot.

If you have military experience, or private sector experience for that matter, that enables you to see through some of the BS, that is great. You should share. I think that is precisely what they were requesting.

ETA:

1/2 🔴 IRGC Speedboat Activity — Strait of Hormuz | May 13

Windward Multi-Source Intelligence across the five monitored zones show ~342 speedboats today. This represents a step-down from yesterday’s 454, but remains elevated compared with the 27–230 range observed between May… pic.twitter.com/UwQVB864L0

— Windward (@WindwardAI) May 13, 2026

No clue if WindwardAI is reliable but here is what they have to say about it.

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This is the problem with sites like WindwardAI. No context. Are the boats mobile? Tied up at a dock somewhere? How are they tracking them? Are they even Iranian? Iran probably isn't the only Guilf state with speedboats. If we go kinetic again those numbers, if even legitimate, will decrease very quickly.

i am becoming less convinced that the strait can be opened with military options. it's far too much of a whack-a-mole game.

iran is going to have to be pressured economically to cave. which can be done in time, but by the time that much time passes the global damage could be substantial.

Agreed. It's just too easy to take shots at tankers a variety of ways

Not sure what those fast boats consume as far as fuel, but taking out the fuel sources or ability to easily refuel them might be easier or have an impact that slows them down and makes them more exposed. Start with the dock fuel stations and work your way up the supply /pipeline chain. If they require a large group of pick trucks running gas cans to a gas station 5 miles each way to fill one boat the targets get a lot bigger.

Also not sure of our ability to deploy mines or the laws thereof, but why not return the favor and mine their ports or critical avenues of approach like blockading their blockade.