How'd that Selzer poll age?
Muh Polls
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Last: 53 min ago by Legal Custodian
Pollsters coming out of tonight looking pretty good:
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
AtlasIntel, Baris, Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen (to name a few)
Vance in '28
Same ones that always look good. The only ones anyone ought to be watching in the next election.
The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108 said:
The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.
Silver will say his model has it close and could e gone either way…
SoyTanLento said:
Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.
Well you changed your user name but you're still dumb.
At least we can finally be done with Lichtman. The media always hyped him up but he was dead wrong about this election.
Nate Silver still sucks
im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzerdustin999 said:
Nate Silver still sucks
Is it ok to mock/deride Selzer into retirement now? The 'Iowa expert' was only off by…16?
And Luntz/Silver:
This thread was fun, thx all.
Dear Ann Selzer -
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 6, 2024
Enjoy your retirement.
Love, Trump +13 and counting.
Our final NPV call:
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 6, 2024
Trump +2.4
Current NY Times estimate:
Trump +1.4
And Luntz/Silver:
Nate Silver and Frank Luntz need a new line of work.
— Fox Friend🇺🇸 (@FoxFriend47) November 6, 2024
Rich nailed it. The meritocracy is forming.
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 6, 2024
This election was never 50.23/49.77. https://t.co/qfN9wDjUxa
This thread was fun, thx all.
WATCH: The moment TimcastIRL crew found out Trump won the presidency. Amazing reaction.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
"WE ARE SO BACK!"
😅 pic.twitter.com/l4bLzvBI7X
So many pollsters are just outright frauds trying to influence the election. Iowa won by 14 and Selzer predicted a dem victory in Iowa less than a week ago.
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
FireAg said:
How'd that Selzer poll age?
As of right now, she was only off by 17 points.
EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.backintexas2013 said:EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
Nate Silver Gives Up on His Prediction Model in Middle of Election NightdreyOO said:im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzerdustin999 said:
Nate Silver still sucks
More like Nate Fools Gold, am I right?
I'll see myself out….
I'll see myself out….
AS of 10:00am today it is 18. No where near two/thirds, but a safe margin.SwigAg11 said:I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.backintexas2013 said:EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
The thing I kept pointing to when talking about the polling was that the national popular vote polls had Biden up 7.5 in 2020. For 2020 it was a virtual tie.
The final national vote spread had it D+ 4.5% in 2020. A 7.5 point swing would result in Trump +3%. And right now his lead popular vote lead is +3.5% but will probably go down as more California votes are counted.
The polls were right and didn't even know it.
The final national vote spread had it D+ 4.5% in 2020. A 7.5 point swing would result in Trump +3%. And right now his lead popular vote lead is +3.5% but will probably go down as more California votes are counted.
The polls were right and didn't even know it.