Muh Polls

778,597 Views | 5728 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by oh no
FireAg
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How'd that Selzer poll age?
1836er
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Vance in '28
FrioAg 00
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Same ones that always look good. The only ones anyone ought to be watching in the next election.
Rapier108
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The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
FireAg
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Rapier108 said:

The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.


Silver will say his model has it close and could e gone either way…
coolerguy12
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SoyTanLento said:

Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.




Well you changed your user name but you're still dumb.
Casual Cynic
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At least we can finally be done with Lichtman. The media always hyped him up but he was dead wrong about this election.
dustin999
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Nate Silver still sucks
dreyOO
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dustin999 said:

Nate Silver still sucks
im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzer
nortex97
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Is it ok to mock/deride Selzer into retirement now? The 'Iowa expert' was only off by…16?





And Luntz/Silver:




This thread was fun, thx all.

ts5641
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So many pollsters are just outright frauds trying to influence the election. Iowa won by 14 and Selzer predicted a dem victory in Iowa less than a week ago.
EdBos_Ag
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Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
SwigAg11
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FireAg said:

How'd that Selzer poll age?

As of right now, she was only off by 17 points.
backintexas2013
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EdBos_Ag said:

Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.


Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
SwigAg11
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backintexas2013 said:

EdBos_Ag said:

Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.


Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.
MAROON
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dreyOO said:

dustin999 said:

Nate Silver still sucks
im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzer
Nate Silver Gives Up on His Prediction Model in Middle of Election Night

ttha_aggie_09
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More like Nate Fools Gold, am I right?

I'll see myself out….
doubledog
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SwigAg11 said:

backintexas2013 said:

EdBos_Ag said:

Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.


Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.
AS of 10:00am today it is 18. No where near two/thirds, but a safe margin.
Legal Custodian
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The thing I kept pointing to when talking about the polling was that the national popular vote polls had Biden up 7.5 in 2020. For 2024 it was a virtual tie.

The final national vote spread had it D+ 4.5% in 2020. A 7.5 point swing would result in Trump +3%. And right now his lead popular vote lead is +3.5% but will probably go down as more California votes are counted.

The polls were right and didn't even know it.
DTP02
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ttha_aggie_09 said:

More like Nate Fools Gold, am I right?

I'll see myself out….


Nate Silver still works great since Harris did manage to finish second.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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[Ann Selzer rn]
RED AG 98
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Has this been discussed elsewhere????

ETA: this is the CEO of Atlas, the most accurate pollster once again

FireAg
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We are going to learn that several polls are manipulated…just like the media manipulates the news to drive a narrative…

But not all polls are manipulated…there are good players…

Precisely why I only watch averages and trends…
Science Denier
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RED AG 98 said:

Has this been discussed elsewhere????

ETA: this is the CEO of Atlas, the most accurate pollster once again


LOL OLD
nortex97
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That ol' boy is pissed. Good for him. He's right. And ABC has totally destroyed what once was a useful tool, 538, out of deliberate and willful intent to deliver a narrative, while badmouthing others/competitors in the polling space.





RED AG 98
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"I know I told y'all it was a coin flip and that Harris won 40012 out of 80000 simulations, but hey I was right!"

Sorry Nate. Shut up and take the L. Again. Wow.

TAMUallen
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I knew it was a whole different level of BS when the Dartmouth poll came out saying Harris was up 28 freaking points in New Hampshire.

Reality is more like 2.5-3
oh no
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lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!

RED AG 98
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oh no said:

lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!


Did Mark Cuban ever recant this video? I'd love to see a follow-up.
aggiehawg
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Halperin's interview with Ann Selzer should be enough to get her fired. She's an idiot using decades old methodology that she confesses is much more expensive than it needs to be. And then she completely got Iowa wrong.

Gold Standard...not.
FireAg
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oh no said:

lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!


I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...

To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
RED AG 98
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FireAg said:

oh no said:

lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!


I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...

To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
My guess -- she got paid. Somehow, some way, she got a bit of a parachute and will now quietly go away and live her best life. I can't imagine setting a decades+ track record ablaze without being handsomely rewarded.
FireAg
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aggiehawg said:

Halperin's interview with Ann Selzer should be enough to get her fired. She's an idiot using decades old methodology that she confesses is much more expensive than it needs to be. And then she completely got Iowa wrong.

Gold Standard...not.
You're still sugarcoating this to much...this last Selzer poll was historically and inexplicably wrong...

She missed by 16.26 points...

NO pollster out there is ever THAT bad...
FireAg
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RED AG 98 said:

FireAg said:

oh no said:

lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!


I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...

To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
My guess -- she got paid. Somehow, some way, she got a bit of a parachute and will now quietly go away and live her best life. I can't imagine setting a decades+ track record ablaze without being handsomely rewarded.
Oh I agree...I think she completely fabricated a number in exchange for cash...

There is literally no other explanation for a pollster with such a long track record of accuracy to miss by almost 16.5 points...
FrioAg 00
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Yup. You'll never convince me this large of a miss from someone who knows polling as well as she does was an "error"

She intentionally put out a lie. Speculating on why is harder, but I also believe she's smart enough to have known no one would ever take her seriously again.

IMHO she either took a payday, or she was planning to retire anyway and figured she had nothing to lose.
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