How'd that Selzer poll age?
Muh Polls
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Last: 2 days ago by oh no
Pollsters coming out of tonight looking pretty good:
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
AtlasIntel, Baris, Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen (to name a few)
Vance in '28
Same ones that always look good. The only ones anyone ought to be watching in the next election.
The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108 said:
The post mortem on all of the pollsters who missed big time, along with the prognosticators like Silver and Sabato, will be interesting to say the least.
Silver will say his model has it close and could e gone either way…
SoyTanLento said:
Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.
Well you changed your user name but you're still dumb.
At least we can finally be done with Lichtman. The media always hyped him up but he was dead wrong about this election.
Nate Silver still sucks
im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzerdustin999 said:
Nate Silver still sucks
Is it ok to mock/deride Selzer into retirement now? The 'Iowa expert' was only off by…16?
And Luntz/Silver:
This thread was fun, thx all.
Dear Ann Selzer -
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 6, 2024
Enjoy your retirement.
Love, Trump +13 and counting.
Our final NPV call:
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 6, 2024
Trump +2.4
Current NY Times estimate:
Trump +1.4
And Luntz/Silver:
Nate Silver and Frank Luntz need a new line of work.
— Fox Friend🇺🇸 (@FoxFriend47) November 6, 2024
Rich nailed it. The meritocracy is forming.
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 6, 2024
This election was never 50.23/49.77. https://t.co/qfN9wDjUxa
This thread was fun, thx all.
WATCH: The moment TimcastIRL crew found out Trump won the presidency. Amazing reaction.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
"WE ARE SO BACK!"
😅 pic.twitter.com/l4bLzvBI7X
So many pollsters are just outright frauds trying to influence the election. Iowa won by 14 and Selzer predicted a dem victory in Iowa less than a week ago.
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
FireAg said:
How'd that Selzer poll age?
As of right now, she was only off by 17 points.
EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.backintexas2013 said:EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
Nate Silver Gives Up on His Prediction Model in Middle of Election NightdreyOO said:im convinced he's a complete fraud now. Right up there with Selzerdustin999 said:
Nate Silver still sucks
More like Nate Fools Gold, am I right?
I'll see myself out….
I'll see myself out….
AS of 10:00am today it is 18. No where near two/thirds, but a safe margin.SwigAg11 said:I believe he's speaking of only the House. Whoever wins it will be by an incredibly narrow margin. DDHQ is currently projecting that Republicans will have a 2 vote majority.backintexas2013 said:EdBos_Ag said:
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
Are you trolling? This was a beat down. In my opinion Kamala is in the corner nursing a hangover and blaming everyone.
The thing I kept pointing to when talking about the polling was that the national popular vote polls had Biden up 7.5 in 2020. For 2024 it was a virtual tie.
The final national vote spread had it D+ 4.5% in 2020. A 7.5 point swing would result in Trump +3%. And right now his lead popular vote lead is +3.5% but will probably go down as more California votes are counted.
The polls were right and didn't even know it.
The final national vote spread had it D+ 4.5% in 2020. A 7.5 point swing would result in Trump +3%. And right now his lead popular vote lead is +3.5% but will probably go down as more California votes are counted.
The polls were right and didn't even know it.
ttha_aggie_09 said:
More like Nate Fools Gold, am I right?
I'll see myself out….
Nate Silver still works great since Harris did manage to finish second.
[Ann Selzer rn]
Has this been discussed elsewhere????
ETA: this is the CEO of Atlas, the most accurate pollster once again
ETA: this is the CEO of Atlas, the most accurate pollster once again
Starting today, I will be posting every day a new piece of evidence of how under @gelliottmorris 538 polling averages were systematically manipulated throughout this election cycle to create the “right” narrative rather than reveal the actual truth about what the numbers were.
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 6, 2024
We are going to learn that several polls are manipulated…just like the media manipulates the news to drive a narrative…
But not all polls are manipulated…there are good players…
Precisely why I only watch averages and trends…
But not all polls are manipulated…there are good players…
Precisely why I only watch averages and trends…
RED AG 98 said:
Has this been discussed elsewhere????
ETA: this is the CEO of Atlas, the most accurate pollster once againStarting today, I will be posting every day a new piece of evidence of how under @gelliottmorris 538 polling averages were systematically manipulated throughout this election cycle to create the “right” narrative rather than reveal the actual truth about what the numbers were.
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 6, 2024
LOL OLD
That ol' boy is pissed. Good for him. He's right. And ABC has totally destroyed what once was a useful tool, 538, out of deliberate and willful intent to deliver a narrative, while badmouthing others/competitors in the polling space.
So far total and utter silence from @gelliottmorris on Exhibit A. Will post Exhibit B later today. https://t.co/OVVha1J6wr
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 7, 2024
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 7, 2024
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 7, 2024
"I know I told y'all it was a coin flip and that Harris won 40012 out of 80000 simulations, but hey I was right!"
Sorry Nate. Shut up and take the L. Again. Wow.
Sorry Nate. Shut up and take the L. Again. Wow.
Took me a bit to realize this, but it turns out the actual election map we got on Tuesday was the model's modal map — the one that occurred by far the most often in our simulations!https://t.co/bMJJD6seP7
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 7, 2024
I knew it was a whole different level of BS when the Dartmouth poll came out saying Harris was up 28 freaking points in New Hampshire.
Reality is more like 2.5-3
Reality is more like 2.5-3
lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!
I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
Did Mark Cuban ever recant this video? I'd love to see a follow-up.oh no said:
lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
Halperin's interview with Ann Selzer should be enough to get her fired. She's an idiot using decades old methodology that she confesses is much more expensive than it needs to be. And then she completely got Iowa wrong.
Gold Standard...not.
Gold Standard...not.
I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...oh no said:
lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
My guess -- she got paid. Somehow, some way, she got a bit of a parachute and will now quietly go away and live her best life. I can't imagine setting a decades+ track record ablaze without being handsomely rewarded.FireAg said:I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...oh no said:
lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
You're still sugarcoating this to much...this last Selzer poll was historically and inexplicably wrong...aggiehawg said:
Halperin's interview with Ann Selzer should be enough to get her fired. She's an idiot using decades old methodology that she confesses is much more expensive than it needs to be. And then she completely got Iowa wrong.
Gold Standard...not.
She missed by 16.26 points...
NO pollster out there is ever THAT bad...
Oh I agree...I think she completely fabricated a number in exchange for cash...RED AG 98 said:My guess -- she got paid. Somehow, some way, she got a bit of a parachute and will now quietly go away and live her best life. I can't imagine setting a decades+ track record ablaze without being handsomely rewarded.FireAg said:I've been trying to wrap my head around that Selzer poll...oh no said:
lol. The GOLD STANDARD POLLSTER!!I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
To get the results she did, all I can figure is she simply polled the University of Iowa campus...students and faculty...and nowhere else...
There is literally no other explanation for a pollster with such a long track record of accuracy to miss by almost 16.5 points...
Yup. You'll never convince me this large of a miss from someone who knows polling as well as she does was an "error"
She intentionally put out a lie. Speculating on why is harder, but I also believe she's smart enough to have known no one would ever take her seriously again.
IMHO she either took a payday, or she was planning to retire anyway and figured she had nothing to lose.
She intentionally put out a lie. Speculating on why is harder, but I also believe she's smart enough to have known no one would ever take her seriously again.
IMHO she either took a payday, or she was planning to retire anyway and figured she had nothing to lose.
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