aginlakeway said:
4 said:
They're pointing out that Gallup just came out and said the polling spread is Trump plus 7, and that Atlas is moving in that same direction.
Atlas of course was the most accurate poster in 2020.
Baris was the second most accurate pollster and he is seeing the same numbers and expecting Trump to take all of the swing states.
He just said that he believes Trump wins and that it won't be close in the electoral College vote.
He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.
They've also made the statement that polls, even when they are accurate, which is not all the time, they are nowhere near as accurate as voting trends. They're adamant that the early voting trends are going to give this election to Trump.
Who are these guys? How credible?
Baris is the poster/analytics guy, and he was second most accurate behind Atlas during the last election.
The gist of his argument is that polls can be accurate or inaccurate, but the hard data of early voting numbers is simply just math.
While he says that of course everything can be wrong and Harris could win, he does not believe it will be close based on the numbers that we have in the tank already. Simple math. And based on historical trends revolving around who shows up to vote on national election day (Republicans 2 to 1) and the number of known registered and likely voters, he sees Trump taking this.
And he's fairly confident that it won't be close.
Barnes is really harping on the fact that we know Trump voters are always under polled, and that Gallup believes there is a seven-point spread for Trump between the polls and what the actual vote will be.
Atlas is moving in the same direction.
He continues to emphasize that if that is the truth, these states won't even be competitive and Trump will win in a landslide.
Again, they know the early voting trends and they are unlike anything the Republicans have seen and are heavily leaning towards them.
The one thing I thought was interesting, is that these guys and others are starting to concede Pennsylvania. Haven't heard anyone today that doesn't believe Trump won't take that state.
If he wins Pennsylvania, it's over.