AtticusMatlock said:

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Baris is a data/analytics guy. Very smart and was very good during the last election cycle.

Robert Barnes is a hardcore libertarian attorney who talks a lot of politics on his YouTube channel. He's a man of great confidence.

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Wow. So this sounds like very encouraging news for Trump.

Let's hope so.

Polymarket odds as of 1 minute ago:

Trump 58.3%
Harris 41.6%

In the last hour or so, money has been coming in on Trump

aginlakeway said:

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4 said:

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They're pointing out that Gallup just came out and said the polling spread is Trump plus 7, and that Atlas is moving in that same direction.

Atlas of course was the most accurate poster in 2020.

Baris was the second most accurate pollster and he is seeing the same numbers and expecting Trump to take all of the swing states.

He just said that he believes Trump wins and that it won't be close in the electoral College vote.

He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

They've also made the statement that polls, even when they are accurate, which is not all the time, they are nowhere near as accurate as voting trends. They're adamant that the early voting trends are going to give this election to Trump.

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Who are these guys? How credible?

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Baris is the poster/analytics guy, and he was second most accurate behind Atlas during the last election.

The gist of his argument is that polls can be accurate or inaccurate, but the hard data of early voting numbers is simply just math.

While he says that of course everything can be wrong and Harris could win, he does not believe it will be close based on the numbers that we have in the tank already. Simple math. And based on historical trends revolving around who shows up to vote on national election day (Republicans 2 to 1) and the number of known registered and likely voters, he sees Trump taking this.

And he's fairly confident that it won't be close.

Barnes is really harping on the fact that we know Trump voters are always under polled, and that Gallup believes there is a seven-point spread for Trump between the polls and what the actual vote will be.

Atlas is moving in the same direction.

He continues to emphasize that if that is the truth, these states won't even be competitive and Trump will win in a landslide.

Again, they know the early voting trends and they are unlike anything the Republicans have seen and are heavily leaning towards them.

The one thing I thought was interesting, is that these guys and others are starting to concede Pennsylvania. Haven't heard anyone today that doesn't believe Trump won't take that state.

If he wins Pennsylvania, it's over.

TDS Democrat Sabato and his tiny crystal balls are saying 52 seats for Republicans in the Senate.

#NEW FINAL Sabato Crystal Ball 2024 Senate projection

🔴 Republican: 52 🏆
🔵 Democratic: 48

GOP flips: Ohio, Montana, West Virginia pic.twitter.com/aE6OjmAOtL

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

Please no John Thune for Senate majority leader.

Rick Scott, or Tom Cotton please.

Obviously we all want Mike Lee but the Mitch wing would never let that happen.

Mitch refused to give Cruz even one cent in the most expensive Senate race in US history because Cruz voted against him in the last leadership election after the 2022 elections.

4 said:

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He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

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This has been one of my key take-aways from the last 4-6 weeks of polls (and EV data sorta backs it up). Of course all the pollsters are going to say PA, MI, WI are "close". None of them want to look stupid, biased, etc. so they all sorta group together for safety.

But we can get a lot of insight from the OH and VA polling. Both are relatively safe bets for Trump & Kamala respectfully and (here's where my opinion comes in) they feel more free to broadcast accurate data... and that data shows that both states have notably shifted right since 2020.

I think PA, MI & WI all follow suite. The polls may not indicate it looking at '24 in a vacuum... but if you look at the same polls from '16 & '20 the entire rust belt has shifted way right. Definitely not a guarantee Trump wins them all, but it paints the picture that Kamala needs a miracle to run the table which she will have to do.

Harris up 28 in NH?

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Dartmouth Poll

Harris 62% (+28)
Trump 34%

587 LV, 11/1-3

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 4, 2024

LOL

I thought PA was the one they felt best about.

PA and WI. MI is the tough one. The Muslim vote will decide a lot because a large group is breaking for Jill Stein.

Baris made a point today (as he has several times in the last few weeks) that if the challenger takes the state as POTUS, the Senate races follow. He says the margins for the Senate races have to be very large for that not to hold. Only exception in the last several cycles was Susan Collins in ME in 2020.

Baris goes farther and says the (Senate) margins in PA, MI, AZ and NV are in that striking range. Trump with a four point or better win, he pulls most if not all across the finish line.

aggiehawg said:

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Baris made a point today (as he has several times in the last few weeks) that if the challenger takes the state as POTUS, the Senate races follow. He says the margins for the Senate races have to be very large for that not to hold. Only exception in the last several cycles was Susan Collins in ME in 2020.

Baris goes farther and says the margins in PA, MI, AZ and NV are in that striking range. Trump with a four point or better win, he pulls most if not all across the finish line.

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Sweet baby Jesus!

jr15aggie said:

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4 said:

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He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

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This has been one of my key take-aways from the last 4-6 weeks of polls (and EV data sorta backs it up). Of course all the pollsters are going to say PA, MI, WI are "close". None of them want to look stupid, biased, etc. so they all sorta group together for safety.

But we can get a lot of insight from the OH and VA polling. Both are relatively safe bets for Trump & Kamala respectfully and (here's where my opinion comes in) they feel more free to broadcast accurate data... and that data shows that both states have notably shifted right since 2020.

I think PA, MI & WI all follow suite. The polls may not indicate it looking at '24 in a vacuum... but if you look at the same polls from '16 & '20 the entire rust belt has shifted way right. Definitely not a guarantee Trump wins them all, but it paints the picture that Kamala needs a miracle to run the table which she will have to do.

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I agree with this. There is nothing inherently special about swing states other than they are just split more evenly across parties. Trends that are happening nationally like more early R voting or many states shifting right would be national phenomena that the swing states wouldn't be "immune" from.

4stringAg said:

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jr15aggie said:

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4 said:

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He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

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This has been one of my key take-aways from the last 4-6 weeks of polls (and EV data sorta backs it up). Of course all the pollsters are going to say PA, MI, WI are "close". None of them want to look stupid, biased, etc. so they all sorta group together for safety.

But we can get a lot of insight from the OH and VA polling. Both are relatively safe bets for Trump & Kamala respectfully and (here's where my opinion comes in) they feel more free to broadcast accurate data... and that data shows that both states have notably shifted right since 2020.

I think PA, MI & WI all follow suite. The polls may not indicate it looking at '24 in a vacuum... but if you look at the same polls from '16 & '20 the entire rust belt has shifted way right. Definitely not a guarantee Trump wins them all, but it paints the picture that Kamala needs a miracle to run the table which she will have to do.

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I agree with this. There is nothing inherently special about swing states other than they are just split more evenly across parties. Trends that are happening nationally like more early R voting or many states shifting right would be national phenomena that the swing states wouldn't be "immune" from.

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He also believes that there is no data to suggest republican women are crossing party lines which is the narrative they keep pushing to give hope. Gender gap is all we keep hearing about. He also put up good comparisons for the last 4 elections where if this movement and data happens it usually decides the outcome.

Baris also checked the new drop of EVs in Clark County NV. Net advantage to Dem was 68 votes. That's it.

That won't make even a pin***** in the R firewall of 30,000 or more.

Ralston is just flat out wrong in his prediction today. For Ralston to have been within the ballpark, that number would need to be 20,000 or lower for Rs for Kamala to have a good shot of winning the state. Sixty eight ain't gonna cut it.Ralston obviously expected the union to work their magic and drop in over ten thousand ballots in Clark County, so maybe the union has lost some of its power?

Yes, NV will accept ballots until Friday but the election day vote will be changing the firewall numbers the Dems will be chasing not really knowing what their target for needed additional ballots really is.

aggiehawg said:

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Baris made a point today (as he has several times in the last few weeks) that if the challenger takes the state as POTUS, the Senate races follow. He says the margins for the Senate races have to be very large for that not to hold. Only exception in the last several cycles was Susan Collins in ME in 2020.

Baris goes farther and says the (Senate) margins in PA, MI, AZ and NV are in that striking range. Trump with a four point or better win, he pulls most if not all across the finish line.

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Wisconsin is closer than Nevada and Arizona in the polls I think. Lake is going to do a lot better than the polls show though. 54-46, 56-44 after 2026

Thanks. he may have said WI and I just missed it.

aggiehawg said:

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Baris also checked the new drop of EVs in Clark County NV. Net advantage to Dem was 68 votes. That's it.

That won't make even a pin***** in the R firewall of 30,000 or more.

Ralston is just flat out wrong in his prediction today. For Ralston to have been within the ballpark, that number would need to be 20,000 or lower for Rs for Kamala to have a good shot of winning the state. Sixty eight ain't gonna cut it.Ralston obviously expected the union to work their magic and drop in over ten thousand ballots in Clark County, so maybe the union has lost some of its power?

Yes, NV will accept ballots until Friday but the election day vote will be changing the firewall numbers the Dems will be chasing not really knowing what their target for needed additional ballots really is.

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Do they have to be postmarked on Election Day to keep accepting until Friday? That just is begging for the cheat if they know what number they have to get.

TAMU1990 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Baris also checked the new drop of EVs in Clark County NV. Net advantage to Dem was 68 votes. That's it.

That won't make even a pin***** in the R firewall of 30,000 or more.

Ralston is just flat out wrong in his prediction today. For Ralston to have been within the ballpark, that number would need to be 20,000 or lower for Rs for Kamala to have a good shot of winning the state. Sixty eight ain't gonna cut it.Ralston obviously expected the union to work their magic and drop in over ten thousand ballots in Clark County, so maybe the union has lost some of its power?

Yes, NV will accept ballots until Friday but the election day vote will be changing the firewall numbers the Dems will be chasing not really knowing what their target for needed additional ballots really is.

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Do they have to be postmarked on Election Day to keep accepting until Friday? That just is begging for the cheat if they know what number they have to get.

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I am pretty sure yes

Quote:

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Do they have to be postmarked on Election Day to keep accepting until Friday? That just is begging for the cheat if they know what number they have to get.

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According to the Nevada state supreme court, no.

Feeling nervous yet anyone?

Been skipping to the end of the thread to see what's new?

Haven't read the OP in a while? Go check it out.

You're welcome for the increased anxiety.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Feeling nervous yet anyone?

Been skipping to the end of the thread to see what's new?

Haven't read the OP in a while? Go check it out.

You're welcome for the increased anxiety.

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No
Yes
Make me
Thank you

I fear that I will wake up Wednesday with different results.

Need to win PA convincingly so we don't have to wait a week for them to "count every vote".

My hope for timeliness is on Wisconsin

I do think there is a realistic scenario where Trump has WI by 1-1.5% and locked up on election night, making PA unnecessary.

Wabs said:

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Need to win PA convincingly so we don't have to wait a week for them to "count every vote".

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The Amish vote mobilizing will be YUGE!

AtticusMatlock said:

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Feeling nervous yet anyone?

Been skipping to the end of the thread to see what's new?

Haven't read the OP in a while? Go check it out.

You're welcome for the increased anxiety.

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Presidential election year versus a non Presidential election year are not one in the same

Wabs said:

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Need to win PA convincingly so we don't have to wait a week for them to "count every vote".

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Well, the current Republican turnout is about the same, but the Dems are down ~ 700K right now compared to 4 years ago. Even after the "overnight counting" and the magical vertical line that instantly appeared on the tabulated vote graphs, they only won by 80K in 2020.

So unless the Dems have ~600,000 extra election day voters sitting around, it's gonna be tough. But of course, that doesn't take into account the fact that every Republican female flipped for Kamala so they totally got it in the bag.

Trump wasnt on the ticket in '22

Which is the most hilarious premis, because I don't know a single Trump voter from 2020 that a flipped to voting against him. Not one, male or female.

FrioAg 00 said:

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Which is the most hilarious premis, because I don't know a single Trump voter from 2020 that a flipped to voting against him. Not one, male or female.

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there's some paid actors on Kamala commercials that appear to be manly republicans voting her this time though