Barnyard96 said:

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Trump wasnt on the ticket in '22

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Thank you, I learn something new every day

Atlas out with their final poll shows it closing. Went from Trump plus three last week to Trump plus 1.1.

ATLAS POLL - U.S. ELECTIONS

In the final Atlas poll before the election, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just 1.1 percentage point.

🔴 Trump: 49.2%
🔵 Harris: 48.1%
⚪ Others/Undecided: 2.7% pic.twitter.com/YUcBRJiq0l

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024

Final Ipsos poll

Final National @Ipsos / @Reuters poll:

Harris 50% (+2)
Trump 48%

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 4, 2024

Oyster DuPree said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Trump wasnt on the ticket in '22

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Thank you, I learn something new every day

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Its why we Texags

What about Iowa

Dang... well, I guess that would be the bloodbath the Dems keep screaming about!

I had to read this a few times. If this is real, which Harris says it is and not a typo, it's looking pretty clear that PA is leaning Trump and the ED vote will be brutal. https://t.co/3kwclmj2Kq

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 5, 2024

Dems were expecting +50k net votes. They got…2,411. Please, I want to believe.

412k is WAY below the 500k firewall Democrats claimed they needed, and were confident they would get.

They did not.

Folks, they only netted 2,411 ballots.

That's not enough by Republican projections. That's not enough by Democratic projections.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2024

Baris chimes in

Can you simplify what he's saying for me?

The Dems think they need to start Election Day with a 500,000 vote lead. That still might not be enough. They didn't get there. I think they had a million vote lead in 2020. Not sure in 2016.

backintexas2013 said:

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But it was all the rage with a few socks that showed up.

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Until that Halperin interview with her dropped.

She sank like a stone after that. Halperin will never admit it but he was so desperate to fund something, ANYTHING in favor of Kamala he thought that interview was good udea to boost support for Kamala.

Instead, he torpedoed her by accident.

Billy Moose said:

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412k is WAY below the 500k firewall Democrats claimed they needed, and were confident they would get.

They did not.

Folks, they only netted 2,411 ballots.

That's not enough by Republican projections. That's not enough by Democratic projections.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2024

Baris chimes in

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He said he believes Trump will win every swing state in his podcast today.

He also believes that it may not be close. If VD trends are what they historically have been, and the Trump under count in polling is anywhere near what it has been the past 2 cycles, Trump will win it running away.

backintexas2013 said:

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The Dems think they need to start Election Day with a 500,000 vote lead. That still might not be enough. They didn't get there. I think they had a million vote lead in 2020. Not sure in 2016.

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Correct. They had a 1 million vote lead in 2020 going into election day and they won the state by 80,000 votes.

They're going into it this year with 412 k votes,. Trump may win Pennsylvania by half a million votes

From what I understand, Dems in PA vote early and by mail in large numbers, so they always have a huge lead (aka "firewall") going into Election Day. The firewall was >1million in 2020. Dens felt they had a decent shot if they could get it to 500k this election. It appears they have fallen well short.

If anyone has a better grasp on this, please correct me if needed.

Correct.

4 said:

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Billy Moose said:

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412k is WAY below the 500k firewall Democrats claimed they needed, and were confident they would get.

They did not.

Folks, they only netted 2,411 ballots.

That's not enough by Republican projections. That's not enough by Democratic projections.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2024

Baris chimes in

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He said he believes Trump will win every swing state in his podcast today.

He also believes that it may not be close. If VD trends are what they historically have been, and the Trump under count in polling is anywhere near what it has been the past 2 cycles, Trump will win it running away.

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Wasn't Trump pushing hardcore for people to only vote on Election Day in 2020? He's not doing that this time around. Does that play into projections?

I'm also reading that as the Republicans really showed out on EV too as the net difference was only +2411 for dem.

Yes. They've been heavily pushing early voting in every state. The Musk Super PAC has been huge in Pennsylvania finding lower propensity voters, voters who tend to skip elections sometimes or people who have never voted at all and getting them to register and vote early.

A guest on the Sean Spicer show earlier today said her organization was flat-out ballot harvesting for Republicans in Nevada. It's legal there.

They are going all in on the early vote strategy, knowing that a lot of their voters still have a propensity to vote on election day.

I don't know how much the polling takes into account, but now that around 50% of the votes in the country have already been cast it's less about pulling and more about math

But did Hillary! holding a rally in Miami turn FL blue?

Very helpful. That's pretty much what I was getting, but appreciate the further explanation.

So based on this, they aren't expecting early Trump voters to cannibalize the Election Day Trump voters?

AtticusMatlock said:

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Yes. They've been heavily pushing early voting in every state. The Musk Super PAC has been huge in Pennsylvania finding lower propensity voters, voters who tend to skip elections sometimes or people who have never voted at all and getting them to register and vote early.

A guest on the Sean Spicer show earlier today said her organization was flat-out ballot harvesting for Republicans in Nevada. It's legal there.

They are going all in on the early vote strategy, knowing that a lot of their voters still have a propensity to vote on election day.

I don't know how much the polling takes into account, but now that around 50% of the votes in the country have already been cast it's less about pulling and more about math

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And this is exactly what Baris and other analysts have been saying. The early vote was so strong in favor of republicans, that mathematically, it's becoming very difficult for Harris to win

Starting to be difficult to anticipate the accuracy in these polls, but in the words of Ramsey Bolton "if you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention."

Beerosch said:

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So based on this, they aren't expecting early Trump voters to cannibalize the Election Day Trump voters?

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They think they will have a huge advantage on election day. How much of the early vote was cannibal versus fresh, no one is really sure. But we do know in Pennsylvania a lot of the new registrations and early voting was low propensity voters who had not voted in the last few elections. There's going to be a huge GOP turn out tomorrow. They are very confident in that.

4 said:

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backintexas2013 said:

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The Dems think they need to start Election Day with a 500,000 vote lead. That still might not be enough. They didn't get there. I think they had a million vote lead in 2020. Not sure in 2016.

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Correct. They had a 1 million vote lead in 2020 going into election day and they won the state by 80,000 votes.

They're going into it this year with 412 k votes,. Trump may win Pennsylvania by half a million votes

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What people also seem to forget is in 2020 that was Trump against "Scranton Joe" and the R's STILL almost wiped out over a million vote lead. This time it's Comrade Kamala from Kalifornia so I have no idea why they think the firewall needed for her to win would be 500,000 vote lead heading into ED. They needed it to be 1.5 million. Can someone tell me what I'm getting wrong?

If Atlas polling numbers are real for Trump I can't see how Lake doesn't having a fighting chance in AZ. That's going to be pretty interesting. I can't see Lake and Trump being much more than 5% difference from each other. AZ registration numbers for GOP are very high.

These final polls have me thinking GOP really does have a chance at 55. This would be bonkers .

Texas double digits- thanks to Abbott

Beerosch said:

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4 said:

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Billy Moose said:

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412k is WAY below the 500k firewall Democrats claimed they needed, and were confident they would get.

They did not.

Folks, they only netted 2,411 ballots.

That's not enough by Republican projections. That's not enough by Democratic projections.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2024

Baris chimes in

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He said he believes Trump will win every swing state in his podcast today.

He also believes that it may not be close. If VD trends are what they historically have been, and the Trump under count in polling is anywhere near what it has been the past 2 cycles, Trump will win it running away.

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Wasn't Trump pushing hardcore for people to only vote on Election Day in 2020? He's not doing that this time around. Does that play into projections?

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He was in 2020 and that was a mistake that he's learned from and they are taking the opposite approach this cycle and it's working to at least match 2020 early vote (which was unprecedented due to Covid and MIB's).

I know it's been stated multiple times but I'll state it again...R's have done a great job of registering new and low propensity voters and getting them to vote early. The high propensity voters will vote on election day tomorrow like they always do. Don't even need to worry about them.

The Dems have to try to convince low propensity or first time voters to vote tomorrow...that's a BIG challenge. Bad weather, long lines, computer glitches etc. could force thousands of them to give up and go home. I don't think they'll even be lucky enough to get them to show up, there is NO enthusiasm for her. This isn't like Obama in '08...not even close.

policywonk98 said:

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If Atlas polling numbers are real for Trump I can't see how Lake doesn't having a fighting chance in AZ. That's going to be pretty interesting. I can't see Lake and Trump being much more than 5% difference from each other. AZ registration numbers for GOP are very high.

These final polls have me thinking GOP really does have a chance at 55. This would be bonkers .

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It would be and hopefully they can hold onto the House. If they can't but Trump wins and he gets the Senate comfortably I think the impeachment stratgey will really start to backfire on the Dems, especially if Trump wins the popular vote.

Those Dems in the House will need to worry about winning their districts in two years if they spend a bunch of time with impeachment nonsense.

Back for this one…

How will independents break in the key states? Huge question. Here’s @BretBaier with some intel on AZ/MI/PA/WI internal polling from someone he describes as a trusted, credible source. With all the caveats in place, here you go: pic.twitter.com/xbi375l59A

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2024

The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

Prosperdick said:

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policywonk98 said:

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If Atlas polling numbers are real for Trump I can't see how Lake doesn't having a fighting chance in AZ. That's going to be pretty interesting. I can't see Lake and Trump being much more than 5% difference from each other. AZ registration numbers for GOP are very high.

These final polls have me thinking GOP really does have a chance at 55. This would be bonkers .

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It would be and hopefully they can hold onto the House. If they can't but Trump wins and he gets the Senate comfortably I think the impeachment stratgey will really start to backfire on the Dems, especially if Trump wins the popular vote.

Those Dems in the House will need to worry about winning their districts in two years if they spend a bunch of time with impeachment nonsense.

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They won't certify Trump if they win the House. It will be an incredible mess.

UntoldSpirit said:

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The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

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No.

Very strong voters have gone early. That's always a dem thing.

You have independents, breaking for Trump, showing up too.

You'll have the same turnout tomorrow. Normal voters will go more republican than last time

Matches what Mark Halperin was saying. He may have been talking to the same sources, I don't know.

But there seems to be a consensus in the GOP braintrust that they have the advantage with independent voters.

The Harris team is saying the exact opposite. They are claiming independent voters are going for them.