So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?

Fortunately we don't have to wait long to find out the truth.

No way Harris wins Iowa or come close

JDUB08AG said:

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So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?

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the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.

But the most reliable pollster in 2020 has Trump winning most battleground states. There is no way he loses Iowa and then performs well in rust belt

Old McDonald said:

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JDUB08AG said:

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So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?

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the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.

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The only way this is correct is if they over sample R's, which they aren't doing. They aren't trying to poll the low propensity voters because it's very difficult and expensive.

Perhaps. But the internal democrat ones probably didn't. And if she's right, then Biden had nothing to fear. It's garbage and will be career ending for her

Prosperdick said:

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I just can't get over only 7% list the economy as their #1 issue. So 93% of voters in Iowa care way more about "muh democracy" and baby killing than their pocketbooks and livelihoods. Yeah, go sell crazy somewhere else.

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Look again at that. Those are the top issues AMONG KAMALA VOTERS, not among all the voters.

Dem psyop trying to dissuade republicans from voting in big numbers on Tuesday.

This is a 50/50 race and we have the momentum late. Hang tight everyone! This hinges on how well men turn out for Trump in the swing states on Tuesday.

That's it. Win the men 55/45 and it's OVER. Trump is back in the white house.

Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters

theeyetest said:

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Dem psyop trying to dissuade republicans from voting in big numbers on Tuesday.

This is a 50/50 race and we have the momentum late. Hang tight everyone! This hinges on how well men turn out for Trump in the swing states on Tuesday.

That's it. Win the men 55/45 and it's OVER. Trump is back in the white house.

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Exactly what it is. Rumors all over X yesterday saying as much.

lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.

“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.

The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024

ATLAS POLL - SWING STATES

Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024

outofstateaggie said:

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lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.

“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.

The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024

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He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?

If I'm reading it correctly, 20% of voters were undecided in September and now it's 9. 16% of Trump voters could be persuaded in septmeber compared to Harris 11%

FireAg said:

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outofstateaggie said:

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lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.

“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.

The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024

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He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?

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Trump

outofstateaggie said:

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FireAg said:

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outofstateaggie said:

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lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.

“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.

The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024

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He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?

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Trump

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Thank you for clarifying…hard to follow who says what with all of the polls bouncing around…

n = 800?

What the heck?

Final @MorningConsult poll:

Wisconsin: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Tied
Florida: Trump +5
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +1
North Carolina: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +9
Texas: Trump +7 https://t.co/RtRxMhhuiF

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

Here she is on msnbc.

If Seltzer is even in the ballpark, the most interesting part will be what she says at the end - there is no paid campaign for either party in Iowa. Which means people would be choosing based on that they see directly from the candidates, not glossy ads. pic.twitter.com/JPmvpUI6hF

— Evan Sutton (@3vanSutton) November 3, 2024

satexas said:

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Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....

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Thats not a poll

#NEW ARIZONA SENATE poll

🔴 Lake: 49.1% (+1.7)
🔵 Gallego: 47.4%

AtlasIntel | 11/1-2 | N=967LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

Emerson IA poll: Trump +10 pic.twitter.com/NMXeP10KoP

— au ng (@athein1) November 3, 2024

ATLAS POLL - SWING STATES

Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024

125 posts on this thread since I last looked at it yesterday, goodness. One absurd poll out of Iowa that looks like it was taken of folks in a DC Starbucks or Columbia sorority house, and folks are freaking out. Not reading thru all that crap last night. LOL:

These are Iowas most important issues. Sure pic.twitter.com/80Zmktb5Mn

— Volfan (@VOLFAN0531) November 2, 2024

Democracy and Abortion are literally the top 2 issues of the Selzer poll

The 2020 recall vote is Biden+5 in a Trump+8.3 state

(Emerson's Trump+10 is Trump+8.1 2020 recall)

This poll has had a good run but it will have zero bearing on my perception of the race.

— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 3, 2024

North Carolina Elections Forecast (11/2)

Presidential - Chance of Winning
🟥 Trump: 66%
🟦 Harris: 34%
[No Change]

Presidential - Poll Average (66 polls)
🟥 Trump: 49.1% (+1.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.7%
[R+0.2 since last week]https://t.co/VpG8qUXBJS

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 2, 2024

🚨 BREAKING: Trump campaign issues scathing response to the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll showing Harris leading Iowa by 3 points.

They pointed to the poll dropped just ~1 hour before from Emerson College showing Trump ahead by 10 points.

They also noted that Selzer hides her… pic.twitter.com/65gg3Ntjxx

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

I wouldn't be surprised if the white response rate bias for democrats was even worse for women

#New General Election @nytimes Poll

🔵 Nevada - Harris +3
🔵 Georgia - Harris +1
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3
🔵 North Carolina - Harris +2
🟡 Pennsylvania - Tie
🟡 Michigan - Tie
🔴 Arizona - Trump +4

Siena #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024