Muh Polls

755,684 Views | 5634 Replies | Last: 1 min ago by chap
JDUB08AG
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So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
agjacent
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JDUB08AG said:

So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
That's literally her track record.
Philip J Fry
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I should point out, the only reason she's up in the WI RCP average is because of a single CNN asterisked poll that has her up by 6.
BQRyno
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Fortunately we don't have to wait long to find out the truth.
kgtg79
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No way Harris wins Iowa or come close
Old McDonald
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JDUB08AG said:

So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.
backintexas2013
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But the most reliable pollster in 2020 has Trump winning most battleground states. There is no way he loses Iowa and then performs well in rust belt
Prosperdick
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I just can't get over only 7% list the economy as their #1 issue. So 93% of voters in Iowa care way more about "muh democracy" and baby killing than their pocketbooks and livelihoods. Yeah, go sell crazy somewhere else.
Prosperdick
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Old McDonald said:

JDUB08AG said:

So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.
The only way this is correct is if they over sample R's, which they aren't doing. They aren't trying to poll the low propensity voters because it's very difficult and expensive.
Philip J Fry
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Perhaps. But the internal democrat ones probably didn't. And if she's right, then Biden had nothing to fear. It's garbage and will be career ending for her
AggieUSMC
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Prosperdick said:

I just can't get over only 7% list the economy as their #1 issue. So 93% of voters in Iowa care way more about "muh democracy" and baby killing than their pocketbooks and livelihoods. Yeah, go sell crazy somewhere else.
Look again at that. Those are the top issues AMONG KAMALA VOTERS, not among all the voters.
theeyetest
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Dem psyop trying to dissuade republicans from voting in big numbers on Tuesday.

This is a 50/50 race and we have the momentum late. Hang tight everyone! This hinges on how well men turn out for Trump in the swing states on Tuesday.

That's it. Win the men 55/45 and it's OVER. Trump is back in the white house.
Dan Scott
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Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters
AggieUSMC
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Dan Scott said:

Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters
The polls would have reflected that a few months ago then.
Casual Cynic
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A huge shift in Iowa because of abortion just seems like wishful thinking.
outofstateaggie
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theeyetest said:

Dem psyop trying to dissuade republicans from voting in big numbers on Tuesday.

This is a 50/50 race and we have the momentum late. Hang tight everyone! This hinges on how well men turn out for Trump in the swing states on Tuesday.

That's it. Win the men 55/45 and it's OVER. Trump is back in the white house.


Exactly what it is. Rumors all over X yesterday saying as much.
outofstateaggie
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SpreadsheetAg
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FireAg
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outofstateaggie said:



He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?
Dan Scott
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If I'm reading it correctly, 20% of voters were undecided in September and now it's 9. 16% of Trump voters could be persuaded in septmeber compared to Harris 11%
outofstateaggie
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FireAg said:

outofstateaggie said:



He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?


Trump
FireAg
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outofstateaggie said:

FireAg said:

outofstateaggie said:



He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?


Trump

Thank you for clarifying…hard to follow who says what with all of the polls bouncing around…
Squadron7
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n = 800?
Waffledynamics
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What the heck?

Captn_Ag05
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Morning Consult showing a Trump electoral college victory in their polling may be more shocking than the Iowa poll!
Dan Scott
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Here she is on msnbc.

samurai_science
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satexas said:

Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....
Thats not a poll
samurai_science
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satexas
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Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....
nortex97
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125 posts on this thread since I last looked at it yesterday, goodness. One absurd poll out of Iowa that looks like it was taken of folks in a DC Starbucks or Columbia sorority house, and folks are freaking out. Not reading thru all that crap last night. LOL:





nortex97
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ts5641
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nortex97 said:







125 posts on this thread since I last looked at it yesterday, goodness. One absurd poll out of Iowa that looks like it was taken of folks in a DC Starbucks or Columbia sorority house, and folks are freaking out. Not reading thru all that crap last night. LOL:






Amazing how important killing unborn babies is to democrats.
Quo Vadis?
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NYT finding white democrats are 16% more likely to respond to polls than white republicans raising the possibility of the "phantom Trump voter" that screwed up polling in 16 and 20
texagbeliever
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I wouldn't be surprised if the white response rate bias for democrats was even worse for women
McInnis 03
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