That's literally her track record.JDUB08AG said:
So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.JDUB08AG said:
So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
The only way this is correct is if they over sample R's, which they aren't doing. They aren't trying to poll the low propensity voters because it's very difficult and expensive.Old McDonald said:the significance of the selzer poll is not that all the other polls are wrong and this one is right, far from it. it's that in polling, you'd expect to see a handful of outliers every now and then like this one. we haven't seen that much this cycle, which implies pollsters are massaging results or methodologies to avoid outliers. outliers in the past two cycles tended to favor dems, so correcting to avoid outliers on balance might well mean pollsters have corrected in trump's favor since 2020. perhaps even overcorrected.JDUB08AG said:
So we're to believe this woman has some magic sauce and literally every other pollster was not only wrong, but wrong by a ****ing million miles?
Look again at that. Those are the top issues AMONG KAMALA VOTERS, not among all the voters.Prosperdick said:
I just can't get over only 7% list the economy as their #1 issue. So 93% of voters in Iowa care way more about "muh democracy" and baby killing than their pocketbooks and livelihoods. Yeah, go sell crazy somewhere else.
The polls would have reflected that a few months ago then.Dan Scott said:
Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters
theeyetest said:
Dem psyop trying to dissuade republicans from voting in big numbers on Tuesday.
This is a 50/50 race and we have the momentum late. Hang tight everyone! This hinges on how well men turn out for Trump in the swing states on Tuesday.
That's it. Win the men 55/45 and it's OVER. Trump is back in the white house.
lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024
“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.
The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.
ATLAS POLL - SWING STATES
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz
outofstateaggie said:lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024
“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.
The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.
FireAg said:outofstateaggie said:lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024
“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.
The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.
He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?
outofstateaggie said:FireAg said:outofstateaggie said:lol. Pollsters don’t know. They are all saying anything to cover for themselves later.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) November 3, 2024
“But I also said…” is the line they all will use Wednesday.
The pollsters are saying Michigan is close - it isn’t.
He's saying MI isn't close…who does he think is leading in MI?
Trump
Final @MorningConsult poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024
Wisconsin: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Tied
Florida: Trump +5
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +1
North Carolina: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +9
Texas: Trump +7 https://t.co/RtRxMhhuiF
If Seltzer is even in the ballpark, the most interesting part will be what she says at the end - there is no paid campaign for either party in Iowa. Which means people would be choosing based on that they see directly from the candidates, not glossy ads. pic.twitter.com/JPmvpUI6hF
— Evan Sutton (@3vanSutton) November 3, 2024
Thats not a pollsatexas said:
Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....
#NEW ARIZONA SENATE poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
🔴 Lake: 49.1% (+1.7)
🔵 Gallego: 47.4%
AtlasIntel | 11/1-2 | N=967LV
Emerson IA poll: Trump +10 pic.twitter.com/NMXeP10KoP
— au ng (@athein1) November 3, 2024
ATLAS POLL - SWING STATES
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz
These are Iowas most important issues. Sure pic.twitter.com/80Zmktb5Mn
— Volfan (@VOLFAN0531) November 2, 2024
Democracy and Abortion are literally the top 2 issues of the Selzer poll
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 3, 2024
The 2020 recall vote is Biden+5 in a Trump+8.3 state
(Emerson's Trump+10 is Trump+8.1 2020 recall)
This poll has had a good run but it will have zero bearing on my perception of the race.
North Carolina Elections Forecast (11/2)
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 2, 2024
Presidential - Chance of Winning
🟥 Trump: 66%
🟦 Harris: 34%
[No Change]
Presidential - Poll Average (66 polls)
🟥 Trump: 49.1% (+1.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.7%
[R+0.2 since last week]https://t.co/VpG8qUXBJS
🚨 BREAKING: Trump campaign issues scathing response to the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll showing Harris leading Iowa by 3 points.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
They pointed to the poll dropped just ~1 hour before from Emerson College showing Trump ahead by 10 points.
They also noted that Selzer hides her… pic.twitter.com/65gg3Ntjxx
Amazing how important killing unborn babies is to democrats.nortex97 said:#NEW ARIZONA SENATE poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
🔴 Lake: 49.1% (+1.7)
🔵 Gallego: 47.4%
AtlasIntel | 11/1-2 | N=967LVEmerson IA poll: Trump +10 pic.twitter.com/NMXeP10KoP
— au ng (@athein1) November 3, 2024ATLAS POLL - SWING STATES
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz
125 posts on this thread since I last looked at it yesterday, goodness. One absurd poll out of Iowa that looks like it was taken of folks in a DC Starbucks or Columbia sorority house, and folks are freaking out. Not reading thru all that crap last night. LOL:These are Iowas most important issues. Sure pic.twitter.com/80Zmktb5Mn
— Volfan (@VOLFAN0531) November 2, 2024Democracy and Abortion are literally the top 2 issues of the Selzer poll
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 3, 2024
The 2020 recall vote is Biden+5 in a Trump+8.3 state
(Emerson's Trump+10 is Trump+8.1 2020 recall)
This poll has had a good run but it will have zero bearing on my perception of the race.North Carolina Elections Forecast (11/2)
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 2, 2024
Presidential - Chance of Winning
🟥 Trump: 66%
🟦 Harris: 34%
[No Change]
Presidential - Poll Average (66 polls)
🟥 Trump: 49.1% (+1.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.7%
[R+0.2 since last week]https://t.co/VpG8qUXBJS
NYT: “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility…
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) November 3, 2024
#New General Election @nytimes Poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024
🔵 Nevada - Harris +3
🔵 Georgia - Harris +1
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3
🔵 North Carolina - Harris +2
🟡 Pennsylvania - Tie
🟡 Michigan - Tie
🔴 Arizona - Trump +4
Siena #A - LV - 11/2