Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:31p, 9/27/24
AG
Apparently Nate incorporated Morning Consult and then also flipped the incumbent factor to Kamala as an advantage for her, somehow, in his algorithms.


Note, I don't know if this is accurate (again, I don't subscribe), but it could explain some of the shift in his polling model.

In any case, context (as in, how far off they were last time/which direction) matters as we get into the last few weeks for all these polls.
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Prosperdick
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2:53p, 9/27/24
AG
Ipsos just sent me this e-mail:
Quote:
It is that time again where surveys about the election are all over the place. You may have even seen an Ipsos poll you participated in on the news!

Whether you feel strongly about politics or could care less, we hope you will continue to offer your thoughts. Your opinion is very important to understand how all Americans feel about these issues.

But we get it, it can be a lot and your well-being matters. Visit the My Profile page on our Member Portal and request a temporary pause from surveys if you feel like you need a break. If you have any questions or need help pausing your surveys, we're here for you.
I wanted to respond back "YOU HAVEN'T POLLED ME SINCE KAMALA WAS INSTALLED!!!" Apparently they're sending so many out that people have complained they're receiving too many and they sent this blanket e-mail out on how to pause your surveys if "you need a break."

Just a reminder, I'm listed as a Republican in their DB and have received ZERO election surveys since Kamala was named. I received several earlier this year when it was Biden and quite a few during the 2022 cycle. They're obviously sending a TON out as people are getting flooded yet crickets with me.

Yes, this is anecdotal but I think telling.
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YokelRidesAgain
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:56p, 9/27/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Apparently Nate incorporated Morning Consult and then also flipped the incumbent factor to Kamala as an advantage for her, somehow, in his algorithms.
1) Silver incorporates essentially every pollster conducting scientific samples. They are weighted differently based on past results and methodology.

2) The tweet you posted is Silver's criticism of Allan Lichtman, a historian whose "13 keys to the election" gets a fair amount of play in media outlets. Silver's position is that Lichtman is assigning predictive value to an overfitted model, and that his modeling is dishonest and subjective in the first place. (Lichtman is confidently predicting a Harris victory.)

Silver is not a partisan hack. He is a professional gambler who is trying to predict the probability of a certain event happening with a mathematical model. In this particular case, he (his model) believes it is a toss-up.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:09p, 9/27/24
AG
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JDUB08AG
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4:05p, 9/27/24
AG
Trump is polling significantly better than 2020 and marginally better than 2016. It seems to me the question is did pollsters accurately adjust their models to the Trump voter?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 4:08p, 9/27/24
AG
Whats the enthusiasm gap compared to 2020? Im too lazy to look it up , but that might tell us something about turnout
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IDaggie06
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 4:08p, 9/27/24
AG
JDUB08AG said:
Trump is polling significantly better than 2020 and marginally better than 2016. It seems to me the question is did pollsters accurately adjust their models to the Trump voter?
Even if they only underestimate Trump by 2% this time it would be detrimental to Harris as the polls are MUCH closer than 2020.
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agsalaska
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 4:11p, 9/27/24
AG
That would be the million dollar question
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Captn_Ag05
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4:33p, 9/27/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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4:33p, 9/27/24
AG
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:39p, 9/27/24
AG
Your last two posts dont really line up?
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Silvertaps
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4:39p, 9/27/24
AG
Those last 2 polls are quite bipolar.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 4:51p, 9/27/24
AG
Two different polls from two different firms polling two different things.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 4:51p, 9/27/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Your last two posts dont really line up?

Quite honestly none of these polls over the last few weeks are lining up and they're actually meaningless in reflecting what's going on. Pretty much a waste of time.
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FireAg
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5:06p, 9/27/24
AG
Fox News Poll: Harris, Trump locked in tight race in battleground Pennsylvania https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-locked-tight-race-battleground-pennsylvania
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Captn_Ag05
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5:07p, 9/27/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:10p, 9/27/24
AG
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TexAgs91
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5:22p, 9/27/24
AG


"Freedom is never more than one election away from extinction"
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 5:47p, 9/27/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Two different polls from two different firms polling two different things.


But its the same election. More republicans and Heels having a greater popular vote lead does not line up
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aggiehawg
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6:02p, 9/27/24
AG
Fox News Host, Pollster Go Over Polls Showing Kamala Hemorrhaging Hispanic Voters

rumble
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rwpag71
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:05p, 9/27/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Good Lord. On their website these people talk about how they use their expertise to help win elections that will further progressive causes. Just making up **** appears to be their primary area of expertise
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Barnyard96
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:29p, 9/27/24
AG
From that video. Liking Arizona!


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Old McDonald
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In reply to Rockdoc • 7:58p, 9/27/24
Rockdoc said:
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.
the swing in silver's model since the debate is pretty much because of this:
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Barnyard96
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8:14p, 9/27/24
AG

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:18p, 9/27/24
AG
Important to note that that Bloomberg one is also Morning Consult.
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2004FIGHTINTXAG
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8:19p, 9/27/24
Not buying a 16 point swing in Nate Silver's model based on a less tha 1% difference in PA.
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Waffledynamics
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8:34p, 9/27/24
AG
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Old McDonald
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In reply to 2004FIGHTINTXAG • 8:38p, 9/27/24
it's other factors too but that's the biggest one. PA is the likeliest tipping point state in the model so stands to reason the election odds are sensitive to recent polls tipping from trump to harris.
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2004FIGHTINTXAG
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In reply to Old McDonald • 8:43p, 9/27/24
Except that they are in a statistical tie in PA. So, again, the 16 point swing is extreme given the tie in PA.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:07a, 9/28/24
AG
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Old McDonald
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In reply to 2004FIGHTINTXAG • 10:40a, 9/28/24
2004FIGHTINTXAG said:
Except that they are in a statistical tie in PA. So, again, the 16 point swing is extreme given the tie in PA.
i mean a 60-40 probabilistic split is about as much of a "statistical tie" as a +1.7 polling average gap (silver's model uses its own polling averages and not RCP's). probabilistic models are much more prone to seemingly wild swings than polling averages. take it up with silver, he seems more than happy to educate confused people who nitpick at his model on twitter.

if you want a more fun conspiracy theory explanation I've seen circulating, the swings in silver's model are because Peter Thiel funds him and Polymarket, so silver is just making his model show probabilities that stimulate more betting activity.
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Who?mikejones!
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11:18a, 9/28/24
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FbgTxAg
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11:21a, 9/28/24
AG
Either the polling on this whole thing is insanely flawed (on purpose or not) or I don't want to live in this Country anymore.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 11:26a, 9/28/24
AG
Florida? Really? That's just silly.
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mslags97
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In reply to FbgTxAg • 11:36a, 9/28/24
AG
FbgTxAg said:
Either the polling on this whole thing is insanely flawed (on purpose or not) or I don't want to live in this Country anymore.


Right there with you. I don't understand. She is literally the reason nearly 70% of the country thinks the country is moving in the wrong direction, but she is leading in the race to continue us on that path?!!! How stupid are these voters?!!!
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