Muh Polls

775,019 Views | 5726 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by dreyOO
Drahknor03
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 5:49p, 9/26/24
AG
Fox News senate polls are always crap.
Reply Quote
Science Denier
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rathAG05 • 7:09p, 9/26/24
AG

[Next derail from you on this thread will result in a ban. We're done simply removing them -- Staff]
Reply Quote
Edited by Staff
TyHolden
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:09p, 9/26/24
AG
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:06p, 9/26/24
AG
Reply Quote
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rockdoc • 11:37p, 9/26/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
TyHolden said:

Even with these, he still needs another swing state. Notice they don't mention the polling in PA, MI, or WI. One of those, any of them, will be enough.

PA looks like the best bet among all of them based on polling. WI is also close. This is based on RCP Average as I type this. Both show Harris +0.9. That appears to be skewed by a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing her +5.
Reply Quote
1
3 edits • Edited by Staff
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:29a, 9/27/24
AG


That's really a 2 point battleground lead.
Quote:
But it also shows that despite the liberal media's claim that Harris has momentum and "joy" on her side, the evidence is that she has stalled in the national popularity polls. It is also notable that Trump's number is higher than it was in 2016 and 2020.

While the top line numbers have remained essentially frozen, Rasmussen noted some changes in its latest survey, which is an average of several days of nightly polling.

For example, the gender gap has narrowed. Said the analysis, "Trump leads by seven points among men, 51% to 44%, while Harris has a three-point lead with women voters, 49% to 46%. A week ago, Trump led by nine points among men, with Harris leading by six points among women voters."

Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell told Secrets that the trend of Trump keeping a slight edge is a strong one, as evidenced by his slight lead for three weeks running. "I think it's like Trump plus one to three nationally," he said.
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:54a, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
4
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:58a, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
1
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:59a, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
1
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:00a, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
1
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:09a, 9/27/24
AG
For reference, Biden won NY by 23% in 2020. A 9 percent swing there in one cycle is portentous of it becoming a real battleground moving forward/looking ahead.
Reply Quote
1
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:26a, 9/27/24
AG

Reply Quote
1 edit
rathAG05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:32a, 9/27/24
AG
I like Nate Silver from 2 weeks ago.
Reply Quote
2
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:35a, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
Drahknor03
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:44a, 9/27/24
AG
Dude is double counting Morning Consult which is skewing his model. Also: Laughs in economic indicators.
Reply Quote
4
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:03p, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
Prosperdick
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:05p, 9/27/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Reply Quote
24
Silvertaps
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:28p, 9/27/24
AG
Is this one of the polls being used in the Nate Silver calculations?
Reply Quote
mslags97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:32p, 9/27/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:


Reply Quote
1
TRM
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:34p, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
JDUB08AG
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Drahknor03 • 12:36p, 9/27/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Dude is double counting Morning Consult which is skewing his model. Also: Laughs in economic indicators.


Is this accurate?
Reply Quote
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:46p, 9/27/24
AG


Reply Quote
1 edit
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:48p, 9/27/24
AG
Reply Quote
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:00p, 9/27/24
AG
Do you understand how likely she is to win the election at +2 national LV?
Reply Quote
1
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 1:12p, 9/27/24
AG
Just posting the polls to contribute to the thread.

It'll all come down to the swing states. Hopefully Trump pulls it out.
Reply Quote
Hungry Ojos
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:52p, 9/27/24
Waffledynamics said:
This looks pretty dire and defeating. Why should we not be worried about this again?
Reply Quote
2
texagbeliever
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:10p, 9/27/24
Because charts are for intellectual weaklings who think the details don't matter.

Look at the EV tracking and party registrations are much better. Clear issues with polls having wonky weights producing "desired" outcomes. People really are too easily manipulated by "math"
Reply Quote
dirtylondrie712
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:14p, 9/27/24
AG
Nate Silver is really good, but I will say he had Biden winning in 89 out of 100 of his models in 2020. To me, that sounds pretty one-sided, but the election was actually decided by less than 50,000 votes in a handful of states. Point being, it was much closer than his models predicted.
Reply Quote
1
Hungry Ojos
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to texagbeliever • 2:15p, 9/27/24
And that analysis still holds true when the graphs show a 16 point effing gulf between the two candidates????
Reply Quote
1
normalhorn
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:16p, 9/27/24
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?
Reply Quote
1
Silent For Too Long
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:18p, 9/27/24
Silver had Clinton with a 60% chance.

Trump has done better then the polls were predicting in every election. I the polls stay this close, he has a very good shot of winning,
Reply Quote
Rockdoc
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to normalhorn • 2:22p, 9/27/24
AG
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.
Reply Quote
texagbeliever
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:24p, 9/27/24
Hungry Ojos said:
And that analysis still holds true when the graphs show a 16 point effing gulf between the two candidates????

Yeah because if it is effing swinging 30 points over 0 news then the right thing is to take away any credibility to what Silver outputs not to hit the panic button.
Reply Quote
Sq 17
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rockdoc • 2:28p, 9/27/24
Rockdoc said:
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.


Not sure if serious the debate was 2 weeks ago and it takes a while for a bad debate performance to be reflected in the polls
Reply Quote
normalhorn
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rockdoc • 2:29p, 9/27/24
Rockdoc said:
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.


I was asking a redundant question, and you've all validated my question.
A problem going forward over the next few weeks is whom to believe. Should we all, at this point, just assume every pollster is blindly throwing darts at a board?
Reply Quote
First Page Last Page
Page 99 of 164 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.