Muh Polls

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Drahknor03
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:49p, 9/26/24
AG
Fox News senate polls are always crap.
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Science Denier
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In reply to rathAG05 • 7:09p, 9/26/24
AG

[Next derail from you on this thread will result in a ban. We're done simply removing them -- Staff]
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TyHolden
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10:09p, 9/26/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:06p, 9/26/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rockdoc • 11:37p, 9/26/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
TyHolden said:

Even with these, he still needs another swing state. Notice they don't mention the polling in PA, MI, or WI. One of those, any of them, will be enough.

PA looks like the best bet among all of them based on polling. WI is also close. This is based on RCP Average as I type this. Both show Harris +0.9. That appears to be skewed by a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing her +5.
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nortex97
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5:29a, 9/27/24
AG


That's really a 2 point battleground lead.
Quote:
But it also shows that despite the liberal media's claim that Harris has momentum and "joy" on her side, the evidence is that she has stalled in the national popularity polls. It is also notable that Trump's number is higher than it was in 2016 and 2020.

While the top line numbers have remained essentially frozen, Rasmussen noted some changes in its latest survey, which is an average of several days of nightly polling.

For example, the gender gap has narrowed. Said the analysis, "Trump leads by seven points among men, 51% to 44%, while Harris has a three-point lead with women voters, 49% to 46%. A week ago, Trump led by nine points among men, with Harris leading by six points among women voters."

Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell told Secrets that the trend of Trump keeping a slight edge is a strong one, as evidenced by his slight lead for three weeks running. "I think it's like Trump plus one to three nationally," he said.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:54a, 9/27/24
AG
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9:58a, 9/27/24
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Captn_Ag05
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9:59a, 9/27/24
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Captn_Ag05
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10:00a, 9/27/24
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:09a, 9/27/24
AG
For reference, Biden won NY by 23% in 2020. A 9 percent swing there in one cycle is portentous of it becoming a real battleground moving forward/looking ahead.
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Waffledynamics
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11:26a, 9/27/24
AG

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rathAG05
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11:32a, 9/27/24
AG
I like Nate Silver from 2 weeks ago.
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Waffledynamics
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11:35a, 9/27/24
AG
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:44a, 9/27/24
AG
Dude is double counting Morning Consult which is skewing his model. Also: Laughs in economic indicators.
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Waffledynamics
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12:03p, 9/27/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:05p, 9/27/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
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Silvertaps
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:28p, 9/27/24
AG
Is this one of the polls being used in the Nate Silver calculations?
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mslags97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:32p, 9/27/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:


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TRM
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12:34p, 9/27/24
AG
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 12:36p, 9/27/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Dude is double counting Morning Consult which is skewing his model. Also: Laughs in economic indicators.


Is this accurate?
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Waffledynamics
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12:46p, 9/27/24
AG


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Waffledynamics
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12:48p, 9/27/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:00p, 9/27/24
AG
Do you understand how likely she is to win the election at +2 national LV?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:12p, 9/27/24
AG
Just posting the polls to contribute to the thread.

It'll all come down to the swing states. Hopefully Trump pulls it out.
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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:52p, 9/27/24
Waffledynamics said:
This looks pretty dire and defeating. Why should we not be worried about this again?
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:10p, 9/27/24
Because charts are for intellectual weaklings who think the details don't matter.

Look at the EV tracking and party registrations are much better. Clear issues with polls having wonky weights producing "desired" outcomes. People really are too easily manipulated by "math"
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dirtylondrie712
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:14p, 9/27/24
AG
Nate Silver is really good, but I will say he had Biden winning in 89 out of 100 of his models in 2020. To me, that sounds pretty one-sided, but the election was actually decided by less than 50,000 votes in a handful of states. Point being, it was much closer than his models predicted.
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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to texagbeliever • 2:15p, 9/27/24
And that analysis still holds true when the graphs show a 16 point effing gulf between the two candidates????
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normalhorn
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2:16p, 9/27/24
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?
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Silent For Too Long
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:18p, 9/27/24
Silver had Clinton with a 60% chance.

Trump has done better then the polls were predicting in every election. I the polls stay this close, he has a very good shot of winning,
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Rockdoc
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In reply to normalhorn • 2:22p, 9/27/24
AG
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:24p, 9/27/24
Hungry Ojos said:
And that analysis still holds true when the graphs show a 16 point effing gulf between the two candidates????

Yeah because if it is effing swinging 30 points over 0 news then the right thing is to take away any credibility to what Silver outputs not to hit the panic button.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:28p, 9/27/24
Rockdoc said:
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.


Not sure if serious the debate was 2 weeks ago and it takes a while for a bad debate performance to be reflected in the polls
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normalhorn
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:29p, 9/27/24
Rockdoc said:
normalhorn said:
Didn't Silver's formula have a Trump win at 65%-ish in the part 10 days? What would logically have moved the odds in his model so strongly in that timeframe?

Nothing logically would have moved them.


I was asking a redundant question, and you've all validated my question.
A problem going forward over the next few weeks is whom to believe. Should we all, at this point, just assume every pollster is blindly throwing darts at a board?
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