Muh Polls

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agsalaska
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:40a, 9/26/24
AG
Quite the midnight release there for NPR
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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Jack Boyette
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1:02a, 9/26/24
Really good summary of the internal state of the race from the Trump campaign's Political Director, James Blair on the Sean Spicer podcast yesterday. He really gets into their polling vs. the public polling, voter registration tends and the potential impact, etc. Great information.

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nortex97
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 4:33a, 9/26/24
AG
Thank you! Very helpful.



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will25u
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6:49a
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Captn_Ag05
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7:38a
AG




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Captn_Ag05
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7:41a
AG
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Waffledynamics
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8:31a
AG
Did Nate Silver stop getting posted here because he brings bad news?

Anyway, from yesterday:

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will25u
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:13a
Waffledynamics said:
Did Nate Silver stop getting posted here because he brings bad news?

Anyway, from yesterday:

Post whatever polls you want.

Look at those shifts though. Practically all red.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:23a
AG
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
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Captn_Ag05
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9:41a
AG


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WestAustinAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:43a
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
Silver has recently started showing real independence from the liberal media industrial complex. A year ago criticized former organization 538 for its blocking of Rasmussen from its averaging group. They did so because of Rasmussen's supposed bias but leaves in many left wing biased oranizations.

He wants to be correct -- which directly affects his personal livelyhood now. Not pimping for the libs.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:47a
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
I've posted him many times and think he's a smart pollster though a partisan dem of course. I am surprised by how much his model has moved around this past month, and read that it started doing this when he incorporated Morning Consult (post-debate?), though I am skeptical that is true. I am always suspicious of Democrats being liars, in any space but especially when it comes to presidential politics.

My guess is he (and others) will model things to a roughly 50/50 chance by Election Day, and claim he was right either way. I don't pay for his service so I can't really trouble shoot what he does put out but for what others quote.

I usually only post polls I believe are correct/trustworthy, but whatever, folks should post what they want of course. This one however I think is a pretty good pollster (RMG) and I don't like this result:

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texagbeliever
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:28a
Captn_Ag05 said:




Look at the unweighted female response: 28% to 72%. That is insane. No way they can have confidence in their female vote. Also it would suggest either women voters are very demotivated or are likely way more silent Trump voters. Or this poll is selecting a group that is disproportionately male or a masculine tending audience which would be odd.
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nortex97
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In reply to texagbeliever • 10:30a
AG
There may be a confidence issue but there were around ten million more female voters than male in 2020 I think so the weighted rate makes some sense.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:34a
nortex97 said:
There may be a confidence issue but there were around ten million more female voters than male in 2020 I think so the weighted rate makes some sense.
how is that when the population is pretty much 50,50
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texagbeliever
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:48a
The weighted rate i don't have a problem with. But what I'm imagining is if you are polling a group. Men are 3 times more likely to answer that should raise a question. I think a reasonable explanation is women voting for Trump not wanting to say they are voting for Trump.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 10:53a
Women vote at a higher percentage if you look at exit poll data in most states. So the weighted part is fine. The unweighted sample is the problem
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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:55a
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


If Trump pulls 20+% of the black vote in Pennsylvania, there is no way Kamala wins the state. Don't care what the rest of the breakdown shows.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:56a
AG
Yes, women vote in higher numbers. Nationally it is usually around 52-48 women/men
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Captn_Ag05
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10:57a
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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10:58a
AG
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Waffledynamics
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11:01a
AG
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nortex97
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11:16a
AG


Watch the trends the next few weeks.
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captkirk
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1:14p
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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AG
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Captn_Ag05
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AG
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Captn_Ag05
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2:35p
AG
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TheBonifaceOption
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2:36p
Emerson had to do work to accomplish this fiction

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Captn_Ag05
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3:59p
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 4:40p
AG
That appears to have been deleted. Anyone know where the actual poll is?
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Barnyard96
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4:55p
AG

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