Muh Polls

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agsalaska
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:40a, 9/26/24
AG
Quite the midnight release there for NPR
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Jack Boyette
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1:02a, 9/26/24
Really good summary of the internal state of the race from the Trump campaign's Political Director, James Blair on the Sean Spicer podcast yesterday. He really gets into their polling vs. the public polling, voter registration tends and the potential impact, etc. Great information.

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nortex97
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 4:33a, 9/26/24
AG
Thank you! Very helpful.



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will25u
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6:49a, 9/26/24
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Captn_Ag05
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7:38a, 9/26/24
AG




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Captn_Ag05
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7:41a, 9/26/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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8:31a, 9/26/24
AG
Did Nate Silver stop getting posted here because he brings bad news?

Anyway, from yesterday:

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will25u
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:13a, 9/26/24
Waffledynamics said:
Did Nate Silver stop getting posted here because he brings bad news?

Anyway, from yesterday:

Post whatever polls you want.

Look at those shifts though. Practically all red.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:23a, 9/26/24
AG
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
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Captn_Ag05
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9:41a, 9/26/24
AG


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WestAustinAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:43a, 9/26/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
Silver has recently started showing real independence from the liberal media industrial complex. A year ago criticized former organization 538 for its blocking of Rasmussen from its averaging group. They did so because of Rasmussen's supposed bias but leaves in many left wing biased oranizations.

He wants to be correct -- which directly affects his personal livelyhood now. Not pimping for the libs.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:47a, 9/26/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Silver isn't a poll. He's got a model (with undisclosed methodology).
I've posted him many times and think he's a smart pollster though a partisan dem of course. I am surprised by how much his model has moved around this past month, and read that it started doing this when he incorporated Morning Consult (post-debate?), though I am skeptical that is true. I am always suspicious of Democrats being liars, in any space but especially when it comes to presidential politics.

My guess is he (and others) will model things to a roughly 50/50 chance by Election Day, and claim he was right either way. I don't pay for his service so I can't really trouble shoot what he does put out but for what others quote.

I usually only post polls I believe are correct/trustworthy, but whatever, folks should post what they want of course. This one however I think is a pretty good pollster (RMG) and I don't like this result:

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texagbeliever
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:28a, 9/26/24
Captn_Ag05 said:




Look at the unweighted female response: 28% to 72%. That is insane. No way they can have confidence in their female vote. Also it would suggest either women voters are very demotivated or are likely way more silent Trump voters. Or this poll is selecting a group that is disproportionately male or a masculine tending audience which would be odd.
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nortex97
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In reply to texagbeliever • 10:30a, 9/26/24
AG
There may be a confidence issue but there were around ten million more female voters than male in 2020 I think so the weighted rate makes some sense.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:34a, 9/26/24
nortex97 said:
There may be a confidence issue but there were around ten million more female voters than male in 2020 I think so the weighted rate makes some sense.
how is that when the population is pretty much 50,50
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texagbeliever
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:48a, 9/26/24
The weighted rate i don't have a problem with. But what I'm imagining is if you are polling a group. Men are 3 times more likely to answer that should raise a question. I think a reasonable explanation is women voting for Trump not wanting to say they are voting for Trump.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 10:53a, 9/26/24
Women vote at a higher percentage if you look at exit poll data in most states. So the weighted part is fine. The unweighted sample is the problem
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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:55a, 9/26/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


If Trump pulls 20+% of the black vote in Pennsylvania, there is no way Kamala wins the state. Don't care what the rest of the breakdown shows.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:56a, 9/26/24
AG
Yes, women vote in higher numbers. Nationally it is usually around 52-48 women/men
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Captn_Ag05
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10:57a, 9/26/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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10:58a, 9/26/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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11:01a, 9/26/24
AG
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nortex97
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11:16a, 9/26/24
AG


Watch the trends the next few weeks.
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captkirk
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1:14p, 9/26/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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2:30p, 9/26/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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2:31p, 9/26/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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2:35p, 9/26/24
AG
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TheBonifaceOption
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2:36p, 9/26/24
Emerson had to do work to accomplish this fiction

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Captn_Ag05
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3:59p, 9/26/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 4:40p, 9/26/24
AG
That appears to have been deleted. Anyone know where the actual poll is?
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Barnyard96
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4:55p, 9/26/24
AG

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Captn_Ag05
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5:10p, 9/26/24
AG
New Fox News polling

Trump +3 in Arizona
Harris +3 in Georgia

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Captn_Ag05
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5:13p, 9/26/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:39p, 9/26/24
AG
That one is pretty darn surprising, on both counts. I'd have expected the Lake-Trump margins to tighten, but I guess not.
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rathAG05
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5:44p, 9/26/24
AG
These polls are so chaotic.
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