Old McDonald said:
it's other factors too but that's the biggest one. PA is the likeliest tipping point state in the model so stands to reason the election odds are sensitive to recent polls tipping from trump to harris.
Quote:
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead heat in Florida, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by The Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group between September 20 and 23, found that Trump had a 1-point lead among registered voters in Florida, on 48 percent to Harris' 47 percenta lead well within the poll's 4-point margin of error. The lead was the same when third-party candidates were offered as a choice.
Quote:
Morning Consult's most recent poll, conducted between September 9 and 18 among 2,948 likely voters, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris. Another poll conducted by Morning Consult the week before gave the former president a lead of 2 points. The polls had a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
A poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University, Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA between August 10 and 11 gave Trump a lead of 2 to 3 points among 1,040 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Quote:
Every poll conducted in the state since Harris entered the race on July 21 has shown Trump leading by 1 to 8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Before Harris entered the race, Trump had been leading by between 4 and 13 points.
The most recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted between September 16 and 19 put Trump ahead by 5 points among 1,602 likely votersa lead outside of the margin of error.
...
In 2020, Trump won the state by 3.3 points, up from his 1.2-point victory in 2016.
