#New @NBCNews General election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 22, 2024
๐ต Harris 49% (+5)
๐ด Trump 44%
Last poll (8/4) - ๐ด Trump +2
NBC #B - 1000 RV - 9/17
#New @NBCNews General election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 22, 2024
๐ต Harris 49% (+5)
๐ด Trump 44%
Last poll (8/4) - ๐ด Trump +2
NBC #B - 1000 RV - 9/17
I can only give you my personal experience with Ipsos. When they USED to poll me about the election, earlier this year and back in 2022, they always asked "Are you registered and going to vote in the upcoming election?" When I selected yes they ALWAYS followed up with "Are you 100% certain that you are registered?"Waffledynamics said:
Question about methodology: how do the polls determine if someone is a likely voter or not? Is it as simple as asking "are you registered to vote, and how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" Do they do any due diligence to check responders' history of participation?
Senate polling by @ActiVoteUS (with leans)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 22, 2024
OHIO
๐ฅ Bernie Moreno: 51% (+2)
๐ฆ Sherrod Brown (inc): 49%
โ
FLORIDA
๐ฅ Rick Scott (inc): 54% (+8)
๐ฆ D. Mucarsel-Powell: 46%
8/16-9/22 | 800 LVs | MoE: ยฑ4.9%https://t.co/oq4yepXjHs
#latest @NateSilver538 forecast (2/22)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 22, 2024
Chance of winning
๐ฆ Harris: 54%
๐ฅ Trump: 46%
Electoral Votes
๐ฆ Harris: 279 ๐
๐ฅ Trump: 259
โโ
Swing States: chance of winning
Michigan - ๐ต Harris 64-36%
Wisconsin - ๐ต Harris 57-43%
Pennsylvania - ๐ต Harris 57-43%
Nevada - ๐ตโฆ https://t.co/WGDgCsaCFf pic.twitter.com/tp6PpOqkXY
rathAG05 said:
Man, that debate really hurt Trump. He tends to hurt himself.
I posted the polls above. You said the polls above were being posted for a reason. If you want to say the polls are biased and have an agenda, cool. But, I am not posting them for any reason. If you follow my posting history at all, you'd know any poll showing a liberal leading is a disappointment to me.Rockdoc said:
I didn't mention you.
It depends on the pollster. Some just ask about certainty to vote. Internal pollsters that are more well-funded will typically dig further asking about voting history, does their immediate family vote, do they know the election day, how do they plan to vote (in-person early or day of, by mail), do they know where their voting location is, and even who is their member of Congress.Waffledynamics said:
Question about methodology: how do the polls determine if someone is a likely voter or not? Is it as simple as asking "are you registered to vote, and how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" Do they do any due diligence to check responders' history of participation?
Didnโt have โAmish Vote Trumpโ on my 2024 bingo cardโฆ.
— Eric Jon Boerner (@EricJonBoerner1) September 21, 2024
pic.twitter.com/Hz92KJdNhM
President Trump,
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) September 21, 2024
I donโt know if youโll see this, but I spoke to an Amish man last night that really wants you to come to Lancaster, PA.
He said more Amish people would be able to attend to your rally if itโs on a Saturday.
He also suggested to advertise in the localโฆ pic.twitter.com/OxEjIrnTZB
Barnyard96 said:
Science Denier said:Barnyard96 said:
Isn't Virginia close? Shouldn't that be added to the list?
NYT painted a rosy picture for Dems in Pennsylvania and the rust belt, tied nationally last Thursday
— umichvoter ๐ณ๏ธโ๐ (@umichvoter) September 23, 2024
Their sunbelt polls have Trump up in AZ, GA, NC this morning pic.twitter.com/2oEDlF4nEQ
If polls aren't overstating Trump's non-white support (they haven't in the past) and are overstating support for the DEM nominee with white voters (they have repeatedly), then we're going to see a very big polling miss. https://t.co/w334aoqgSe
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) September 22, 2024
#New NYT General election poll - Arizona
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 23, 2024
๐ด Trump 50 (+5)
๐ต Harris 45%
Last poll (8/14) - ๐ต Harris +5
Siena #A - 713 LV - 9/21
๐บ๐ฒ 2024 GE: NYT/@SienaResearch
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 23, 2024
ARIZONA
๐ฅ Trump: 50% (+5)
๐ฆ Harris: 45%
Last poll (8/15) - ๐ต Harris +5
โโ
NORTH CAROLINA
๐ฅ Trump: 49% (+2)
๐ฆ Harris: 47%
Last poll - ๐ต Harris +2
โโ
GEORGIA
๐ฅ Trump: 49% (+4)
๐ฆ Harris: 45%
Last poll - ๐ด Trump +4
โโ
#1 (3.0/3.0) |โฆ pic.twitter.com/oItjnaKpFJ
NEW Siena/NYT Sunbelt Polls: Arizona:ย Trump 50-45% Over Harris, Gallego by 6 Leads Lake, Georgia:ย Trump 49-45% Over Harris, North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 47%, Stein 10 points ahead of Robinsonhttps://t.co/d6oFfmQy9O#2024Election #Arizona #Georgia #NorthCarolina pic.twitter.com/udaFSfJbtG
— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) September 23, 2024
#NEW MINNESOTA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024
๐ต Harris: 48% (+5)
๐ด Trump: 43%
๐ก Undecided: 7%
MN Star Tribune | Sept. 16-18 | N=800LV
#NEW MINNESOTA favorable/unfavorable among INDEPENDENTS
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024
๐ด Trump: 48%-51% (-3)
๐ต Harris: 41%-57% (-16)
MN Star Tribune | Sept. 16-18 | LVs
Captn_Ag05 said:#NEW MINNESOTA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024
๐ต Harris: 48% (+5)
๐ด Trump: 43%
๐ก Undecided: 7%
MN Star Tribune | Sept. 16-18 | N=800LV
Edited: look at this favorable breakdown among independents#NEW MINNESOTA favorable/unfavorable among INDEPENDENTS
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024
๐ด Trump: 48%-51% (-3)
๐ต Harris: 41%-57% (-16)
MN Star Tribune | Sept. 16-18 | LVs
I think so. One very progressive urban area and the rest of the state, as Tim Walz said, is mostly just rocks and cows.SwigAg11 said:
I'm guessing there are just many more democrats in MN to overcome the republicans + independents (at least in the polls)?
#New General election poll - Wisconsin
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 23, 2024
๐ต Harris 53% (+7)
๐ด Trump 46%
Senate
๐ต Baldwin 52% (+8)
๐ด Hovde 44%
MassINC #A - 800 LV - 9/18
#New General election poll - Texas
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 23, 2024
๐ด Trump 50% (+6)
๐ต Harris 44%
Texas Hispanic P #N/A - 1200 LV - 9/18
#New Senate poll - Texas
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 23, 2024
๐ด Cruz 48% (+3)
๐ต Allred 45%
Texas Hispanic P #N/A - 1200 LV - 9/18
2023NCAggies said:Why I do not take them serious. Nobody is even talking about project 25, so most of the people asked probably didn't know wtf it wasCaptn_Ag05 said:New NBC Poll has Project 2025's favorability at:
— Nick Gourevitch (@nickgourevitch) September 22, 2024
4% favorable
57% unfavorable (51% strongly unfavorable!)
It's become so incredibly toxic in such a short time.
Expect to hear more Project 2025 from libs over the next 45 days. No matter how much Trump has tried to distance from it.
RFK was very popular in Arizona and Nevada. Most of his support is going to go to Trump in those states.SwigAg11 said:
That is a 10 point swing in AZ. That just seems crazy to me.